Day: October 30, 2015

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “CHAPALA” Over Westcentral Arabian Sea – JTWC Tropical Cyclone 04A (CHAPALA) Warning #08

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Current Weather Conditions on 30th October 2015 @ 9.00 pm. IST

 

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis 
                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  30 OCT 2015    Time :   143000 UTC
      Lat :   13:52:05 N     Lon :   60:25:00 E

     
                                 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                                 6.4 / 939.6mb/124.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                6.0     6.0     6.0

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

 Center Temp :  -3.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION 

 Ocean Basin : INDIAN        
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : ON    
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG  

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  111km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Name :    MET7 
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.7 degrees 

****************************************************

UW-CIMSS IR (NHC Enhancement)  Satellite Image of  Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “CHAPALA” on 30th October 2015 @1430 UTC

UW_Chapala_301015_1430

 

As per NRL: 04A (CHAPALA) over the Westcentral Arabian Sea is located at 14.0°N & 60.5°E with winds of 130 knots & Central Pressure of 926 mb. on 30th October 2015 @ 1200 UTC.

1 knot= 1.85 km./hour

 

From JTWC:

 

 JTWC Tropical Cyclone 04A  (FOUR) Warning No. 8

io0415_8

NRL IR Satellite Image on 30th October 2015 @ 1500 UTC (08.30 pm. IST)

04ACHAPALA.130kts-926mb-140N-605E.100pc_ir

 

NRL Water Vapor Satellite Image on 30th October 2015 @ 1500 UTC (08.30 am. IST)

04ACHAPALA.130kts-926mb-140N-605E.100pc_vapor

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI  issued TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ‘CHAPALA’ ADVISORY NO. THIRTEEN ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 30TH OCTOBER 2015 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘CHAPALA’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER 2015 NEAR LATITUDE 14.1°N AND LONGITUDE 60.6°E, ABOUT 1410 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003) AND ABOUT 770 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) (OMAN). IT WOULD MOVE WESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND CROSS YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 15.0°N AND 16.0°N AROUND MIDNIGHT OF 2ND NOVEMBER, 2015. DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AND LOWER OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY OVER GULF OF ADEN AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF YEMEN AND OMAN COAST, THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE LANDFALL AND IT WOULD CROSS YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.

For further details click link below.

RSMC ADVISORY No.: THIRTEEN

Observations:

The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “CHAPALA” is now over Westcentral Arabian Sea and could reach Super Cyclonic Storm strength. However, IMD/RSMC has to confirm the same. As per International Weather Agencies the winds are blowing at 240 km./hour with gusts of 295 km/hour based on average winds on 1 minute basis as compared to IMD’s basis of 3 minute average wind speed. The System is expected to track towards Yemen/Oman next few days.

For Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch refer to Forecast Dated 30th October 2015 issued at 6.00 pm. click here Forecast Dated 30th October 2015 @ 6.00 pm.

 

Caution: Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

અપડેટ 30 ઓક્ટોબર 2015 રાત્રે 9.30 કલાકે:

અરબી સમુદ્ર વાળી સીસ્ટમ  “ચપલા” (“CHAPALA”) હાલ અત્યંત તીવ્ર વાવાઝોડુ છે. સુપર સાયક્લોનિક સ્ટોર્મ ની માત્રા એ પહોંચી શકે છે. IMD/RSMC તરફ થી પુષ્ટિ થવી જરૂરી છે.

આ વાવાઝોડા ના પવનો ઇન્ટરનેસનલ એજન્સી મૂજબ 240 કિમી પ્રતિ કલાકે ફૂંકાય છે (1 મિનીટ ની શરેરાશ મૂજબ ) જે IMD 3 મિનીટ ની શરેરાશ મૂજબ માપે છે. આંચકા ના પવનો 295 કિમી ની ઝડપે ફૂંકાય છે (1 મિનીટ ની શરેરાશ મૂજબ ). અરબી સમુદ્ર ની સીસ્ટમ હાલ ઓમાન/યેમેન તરફ જાય છે. સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર તેમજ ગુજરાત થી ઘણી દૂર છે છતાં સીસ્ટમ ના પૂછડિયા વાદળો સૌરાષ્ટ્ર તેમજ ગુજરાત ઉપર થી પાસ થાય છે.

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માટે 30 ઓક્ટોબર 2015 સાંજે 6.00 કલાકે આપેલ અપડેટ વાંચવા અહી ક્લિક કરો  તારીખ 30 ઓક્ટોબર 2015 સાંજે 6.00 કલાક

 

સાવચેતી:

સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.