Second Round Of Hot Weather – Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat 15th To 17th April 2014

Current Weather Conditions on 12th April 2014

The first round of Hot Weather was on 4th to 6th April when some centers of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat had crossed 40.0 C. Subsequently for the last five days the Maximum & Minimum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has been near normal. The Maximum at Rajkot on 11th April was 37.9 C, the Maximum Temperature at Ahmedabad was 38.4 C while the Maximum Temperature at Bhuj was 39.2 C. The Minimum Temperature at Rajkot was 21.0 C. , Ahmedabad was 22.7 C while Bhuj was 21.8 C. The Morning Humidity has remained considerably high over most parts of Kutch & Western Saurashtra during the last few days. Rajkot has been having Humidity level of about 85 to 90 % in the morning.

All India Hot Spots in last few days have been from Andhra Pradesh,  Vidarbha, & Rajasthan. The Maximum temperature has been in the 41.0 to 42.0 C range.

Forecast: 12th to 17th April 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch: 12th to 17th April 2014

Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to remain near normal for the period 12th to 14th April. The Second round of Hot Weather is expected during the period 15th to 17th April when the Maximum Temperature is expected to go above 40.0 C at some places in Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat. Higher Maximum Temperature is expected over North Gujarat compared to Saurashtra. Some places of Saurashtra expected to be hotter than Rajkot.

India Hot Spot Areas Forecast: 14th to 17th April 2014

All India Hot Spots will be from  Andhra Pradesh, Chhatishgarh, Vidarbha & Odisha area on 15th & 16th . West Bengal will join all the above Hot Spot areas on 17th April. The Maximum Temperature could reach 43 to 44 C. in these Hot Spot areas.

Wunderground Map Showing Forecast Hot Spot Areas on 16th April @ 0900 UTC

Based on Forecast Run Dated 12th April 2014 @ 0000 UTC

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Wunderground Map Showing Forecast Hot Spot Areas on 17th April @ 0900 UTC

Based on Forecast Run Dated 12th April 2014 @ 0000 UTC

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Forecast For North India: 12th to 17th April

Due to multiple Western Disturbance Jammu & Kashmir and neighboring areas will receive rainfall on 12th/13th and also on 16th/17th April.

COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 14th April 2014 @ 00 UTC

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COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 17th April 2014 @ 00 UTC

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COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 18th April 2014 @ 00 UTC

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Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 12th April 2014

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Hot Weather For Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat 4th To 8th April 2014

Current Weather Conditions on 3rd April 2014

The Maximum & Minimum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has been near normal. The Maximum at Rajkot on 2nd April was 37.8 C while the Maximum Temperature at Ahmedabad was 37.4 C. The Minimum Temperature at Rajkot was 21.0 C. while at Ahmedabad it was 22.9 C. The Morning Humidity has remained considerably high over most parts of Kutch & Western Saurashtra during the last few days. Rajkot has been having Humidity level of about 90 % in the morning.

All India Hot Spots in last few days have been from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Vidarbha, & Tamilnadu.

Forecast: 4th to 8th April 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch: 4th to 8th April 2014

Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to increase by about 2 to 3 C during the forecast period. Higher Maximum Temperature is expected on 5th & 6th April over the forecast regions when the Maximum Temperature will cross 40.0 C in some centers.

India Hot Spot Areas Forecast: 5th to 7th April 2014

All India Hot Spots will be from Andhra Pradesh, Chhatishgarh, Vidarbha & Adjoining States during the forecast period. The Maximum Temperature could reach 43 to 44 C. in some of the Hot Spot areas.

Wunderground Map Showing Forecast Hot Spot Areas on 5th April @ 0900 UTC

Based on Forecast Run Dated 3rd April 2014 @ 0000 UTC

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Forecast For North India: 5th to 7th April

Due to Western Disturbance Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana & neighboring areas will receive rainfall during the forecast period.

COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 6th April 2014 @ 00 UTC

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COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 7th April 2014 @ 00 UTC

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COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 8th April 2014 @ 00 UTC

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Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 3rd April 2014

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Hot Weather For Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat On 23rd & 27th March 2014

Current Weather Conditions on 22nd March 2014

The Maximum & Minimum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has been within the range of 1 to 3 C. from normal. The Maximum at Rajkot on 20th March was 37.7 C while it was 35.0 C. yesterday. Maximum Temperature at Bhuj was 36.5 C about 1 C above normal and at Ahmedabad it was 33.4 C about 3 C below normal. The Minimum at Rajkot was 19.7 C. which is about 1 C above normal while at Ahmedabad it was 19.8 C and in Bhuj it was 18.2 C both being normal. The Morning Humidity has increased considerably over most parts of Kutch & Western Saurashtra during the last few days. Rajkot has been having Humidity level of about 90 % in the morning.

All India Hot Spots in last few days have been from Andhra pradesh, Karnataka, Vidarbha, Tamilnadu, Vidarbha, Rajasthan & Gujarat. There has not been a Heat Wave condition in the past few days.

Forecast: 22nd to 27th March 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch:

Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to be within the range of 1 to 2 C from normal. The Maximum is expected to be higher than normal by 2 to 3 C. on 23rd & 27th March. North Gujarat & Eastern Saurashtra will be hotter than other areas of Gujarat. No Heat Wave condition is forecast. The winds will be mainly Westerly and at times from Northwest during the forecast period.

All India Hot Spots will be from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Vidarbha, Tamilnadu, Vidarbha & Rajasthan during the forecast period.

As per IMD:

Criteria for Heat Wave:

Heat wave need not be considered till maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40º C for Plains and at least 30º C for Hilly regions.

a) When normal maximum temperature of a station is less than or equal to 40º C
Heat Wave Departure from normal is 5º C to 6º C
Severe Heat Wave Departure from normal is 7º C or more

b) When normal maximum temperature of a station is more than 40º C Heat Wave Departure from normal is 4º C to 5º C
Severe Heat Wave Departure from normal is 6º C or more

c) When actual maximum temperature remains 45ºC or more irrespective of normal maximum temperature, heat wave should be declared.

Forecast For North India:

Due to Western Disturbance some Hilly regions of North India could receive snowfall/rainfall on 23rd & 24th March while rest of the areas would receive rainfall during the same period. Snowfall in some of the Hilly regions and rainfall possible over rest of the areas of Jammu & Kashmir on 27th March.

COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 24th March 2014 @ 00 UTC

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COLA/IGES Forecasts of Vertical Velocity or Precipitation
Valid 25th March 2014 @ 00 UTC

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Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 22nd March 2014

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Evening Wind Direction On HOLI Day Not A Reliable Indicator For Monsoon Forecast

Current Weather Conditions on 15th March 2014 @ 11.00 am.

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has increased by 3 to 4 C during the last two days and are 1 to 2 C. above normal. The Maximum at Rajkot yesterday was 37.3 C while at Bhuj it was 37.6 C and at Ahmedabad it was 35.8 C. The Minimum at Rajkot was 21.0 C. which is about 3 C above normal while at Ahmedabad it was 19.6 C about 1 C above normal and in Bhuj it was 20.1 C being about 3 C above normal. The Humidity has decreased considerably over most parts of Gujarat.

Monsoon Forecast by Traditional method uses the Wind Direction in evening on ‘HOLI’ day. However, since ‘HOLI’ is based on Lunar Month the ‘HOLI’ date varies each year and the variation is of about 10  to 20 days early or late on different years. Observation of the Calender of last 115 years has been done and it has been observed that earliest ‘HOLI’ day was on 26th February 1945 while delayed ‘HOLI’ day was recently on 28th March 2002. If we want to use wind as an Empirical parameter for Monsoon forecast we should fix a date which represents lonf period average of past ‘HOLI’ dates. This date comes to 13th March if we consider ‘HOLI’ date of last 115 years. I would propose that Wind Direction method used in the Traditional Method of Forecasting Monsoon should be based on Wind Directions on 13th March instead of ‘HOLI’ day.

Chart for Monsoon Forecast by Traditional Method based on Wind direction on ‘HOLI’ Day. Note the orientation of the directions – East is on Top so be careful !

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Wind Direction Forecast for 16th March 2014 ( ‘HOLI’ day) :

The Wind direction on 16th March being the ‘HOLI’ day for various centers is given for 6.00 pm and 9.00 pm.

Veraval & Junagadh the wind will blow from the West at 6.00 pm. & from West Northwest at 9.00 pm.

Rajkot, Jamnagar & Surendranagar the wind will blow from the West Northwest at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.

Bhuj & Vadodara the wind will blow mainly from the Westerly direction at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.

Ahmedabad the wind direction could vary. Expect wind to blow from the West Southwest at 6.00 pm. & from West at 9.00 pm.

Bhavnagar the wind direction could be erratic so less confidence. Expect wind to blow from the East at 6.00 pm. & from South at 9.00 pm.

 

Forecast: 15th to 18th March 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch:

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to trend upwards on 15th & 16th March when Maximum and Minimum Temperature will increase and remain high over most of the places. There will be a marginal relief in Maximum Temperature on 17th March and some relief on 18th March at most places of the forecast areas. The Maximum Temperature in some places of Saurashtra & Gujarat is expected to reach 38 to 39 C. by 16th March.

North India:

Rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining areas with Snowfall over few hilly regions during the forecast period.

Rest of India:

The Maximum Temperature is expected to risete further and cross 40 C. over few of the major Centers of the States mentioned below during the forecast period. Some of the Hot Spot areas could be North Andhra, South Chhatishgarh, adjoing Vidarbha, South Gujarat and adjoining Maharashtra.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 15th march 2013

akila_150314_topakila_150314_bottomસુધારો:
વહેલા માં વહેલી ‘હોળી’ ૨૬ ફેબ્રુઆરી ૧૯૪૫ માં હતી.

સૌથી વધુ પવનની અચોક્કસતા ભાવનગરમાં જોવા મળશે. ૬ વાગ્યે પૂર્વ દિશામાંથી પશ્ચિમ દિશા તરફ જશે. રાત્રીના ૯ વાગ્યે દક્ષિણ દિશામાંથી ઉતર દિશા તરફ જશે.