Cool Weather To Prevail Over Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat – Update 20th January 2018

Weather Conditions on 20th January 2018

Minimum as well as Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were above normal till 17th January and subsequently decline to now near normal or slightly above normal. The weather has again become pleasant. The Minimum Temperature has become normal in Ahmedabad at 11.8 C and Rajkot is 13.2 C about 1 C above normal. Some other Cities where temperatures were between 11 to 12 C are Gandhinagar at 11 C, Mahuva at 12 C.

All Dates Shown Are Till 20th January 2018

 

 

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 20th to 27th January 2018

The Minimum Temperature will decrease during 23rd to 25th January over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch and could be lower than normal. Overall the Minimum Temperature will be near normal or slightly below normal during the forecast period. The Maximum Temperature will also decline during the forecast period and will become near normal or slightly below normal for some days of the forecast period.

The winds will blow from Northwest on 22nd and 23rd so foggy conditions expected over Kutch from 22nd and over Saurashtra & Gujarat on 23rd. There will be scattered rain over North India on 23rd January. There is will be a possibility of foggy conditions on 26th/27th January. The cloudy conditions will occur during 25th to 27th January.

આગાહી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ : તારીખ 20 થી 27 જાન્યુઆરી 2018

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન ક્રમશ ઘટવામાં રહેશે જેથી તારીખ 23 થી 25 માં નોર્મલ થી 1 થી 2 C નીચે પણ જઈ શકે છે. મહત્તમ તાપમાન પણ ક્રમશ નીચું આવશે જેથી આગાહી ના અમૂક દિવસો માં નોર્મલ થી નીચું જોવા મળશે. એકંદરે અમૂક દિવસો ગુલાબી ઠંડી અને અમૂક દિવસો માં ચમકારો (23 થી 25 ) જોવા મળે. 

22 તારીખ ના કચ્છ બાજુ અને 23 તારીખ માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત બાજુ ઝાકળ ની શક્યતા છે. ફરી 26/27 તારીખે પણ ઝાકળ ની શક્યતા છે. તારીખ 25 થી 27 દરમિયાન છુટા છવાયા વાદળો થાય.

તારીખ 23 ના નોર્થ ઇન્ડિયા માં નોર્થ રાજસ્થાન, દિલ્હી, યુપી અને આસપાસ ના રાજ્યો વરસાદ ની શક્યતા છે.

 

 

 

 

Kite Flying Weather For Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat On 14th January 2018

Weather Conditions on 13th January 2018

Partly cloudy weather prevails from 11th January with increase in Minimum as well as Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat. The winds are from Northeast and at times from East. The Minimum Temperature has increased to above 6 to 7 C above normal. Ahmedabad was 18.5 C, Rajkot 18.3 C, Amreli 17.7 C & Bhuj at 15.9 C.

All Dates Shown Are Till 13th January 2018

 

 

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 13th to 20th January 2018

The Minimum Temperature will decrease incrementally from 14th on wards till 16th January and then further decrease marginally during the forecast period over all parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. The Minimum will be 2 to 5 C above normal during 14th to 16th January. The cloudy conditions will clear from tomorrow. The winds will be from Northeast and from East. On 17th/18th January the winds will be from Northwest over some parts of Kutch & Devbhumi Dwarka area and some chances of foggy weather over those parts on 17th/18th January. Weather will be dry and no fog expected over most parts of on most days, except for the areas as mentioned on 17th/18th. The Minimum Temperature could be near normal or 1 to 2 C above normal over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch during 17th to 20th January.

14th January 2018: Kite flying weather expected except for Lunch-break !

આગાહી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ : તારીખ 13 થી 20 જાન્યુઆરી 2018

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન 14 થી 16 સુધી ક્રમશ ઘટવામાં રહેશે જે 2 થી 5 C નોર્મલ થી વધુ હશે અને ત્યાર બાદ 17 થી 20 તારીખ ના દિવસો માં ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન નોર્મલ તાપમાન નજીક કે એકાદ બે C વધુ રહેશે. વાદળો આવતી કાલથી વિખાશે. હાલ પૂર્વ /શિયાળુ પવન રહેશે. કચ્છ અને દેવભૂમિ દ્વારકા બાજુ 17 અને 18 જાન્યુઆરી ના પવન ઉત્તર પશ્ચિમ ના રહેશે જેથી ઝાકર ની શક્યતા તે વિસ્તાર માં રહેશે, બાકી ના વિસ્તાર માં ઝાકર ની શક્યતા ઓછી છે.

14 જાન્યુઆરી 2018: બપોરે જમવાનો બ્રેક શિવાય આખો દિવસ પતંગ ઉડાડવા માટે વાતાવરણ સારું રહેશે.

 

 

 

Above Normal Temperature Forecast 11th To 14th January Over Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

Weather Conditions on 8th January 2018

Clear and dry weather persisted last week. Rajkot and Ahmedabad the Minimum Temperature was 2 C below normal with Minimum Temperature of 10.6 C & 10.4 C respectively. The Minimum & Maximum Temperature has declined during the last two days and are 1 to 2 C below normal while the Maximum Temperature is near normal to 1 C below normal over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat. The winds are mainly from Northeast.

All Dates Shown Are Till 8th January 2018

 

 

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 8th to 14th January 2018

The Minimum Temperature will increase marginally on 9th/10th January  and then further increase to have 4 to 6 C rise from that prevailing today the 8th January and will remain high during 11th to 14th January over all parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch. The Minimum will be 3 to 5 C above normal during 11th to 14th January. Maximum Temperature will become normal by 10th January and further increase and would be above normal by 2 to 4 C on most days during 11th to 14th January with cloudy conditions on some days. The winds will be from Northeast and from East on some days during the later parts of forecast period. Weather will be dry and no fog expected, however, there is stray chance of instability over limited areas on one of the days on 12th or 13th January.

 

આગાહી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ : તારીખ 8 થી 14 જાન્યુઆરી 2018

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન 9 અને 10 તારીખ ના નોર્મલ તરફ જશે અને ત્યાર બાદ 11 થી 14 તારીખ ના દિવસો માં ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન હાલ ના તાપમાન કરતા 4 થી 6 સી વધુ રહેશે, જે નોર્મલ થી 3 થી 5 વધુ હશે. મહત્ત્તમ તાપમાન પણ વધવા માં રહેશે જે નોર્મલ થી 2 થી 4 વધુ થઇ જશે 10 થી 14 તારીખ દરમિયાન. હાલ શિયાળુ પવન રહેશે અને ત્યાર બાદ પાછળ દિવસો માં કોઈ કોઈ દિવસે પૂર્વ ના પવન રહેશે. ઝાકર ની શક્યતા નથી. 11થી 14 માં વાદળ ની શક્યતા કોઈ કોઈ દિવસે અને એકાદ દિવસ 12 કે 13 તારીખ માં અમૂક સીમિત વિસ્તાર માં વાતાવરણ માં અસ્થિરતા.

 

 

 

ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails – Using NOAA Criteria A Full Fledged La Nina Only Possible Earliest End March 2018

ENSO Status on 7th January 2018

ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails

 

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures were based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4) and have now been updated to further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). Explanation about ERSST.v5 is given here.

The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.

Last five ONI Index are JJA 2017 +0.2ºC, JAS 2017 -0.1ºC, ASO -0.4ºC, SON -0.7ºC and OND  -0.9ºC. Only two 3-monthly seasonal ONI Index are in the La Nina zone and hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain officially in ENSO Neutral zone, though leaning towards potential La Nina.

 

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending December 2017

 

 

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015. ERSST.v5

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC

2016   1   29.11   26.45    2.66
2016   2   29.00   26.66    2.34
2016   3   28.90   27.21    1.70
2016   4   28.73   27.73    0.99
2016   5   28.24   27.85    0.39
2016   6   27.70   27.65    0.05
2016   7   26.82   27.26   -0.44
2016   8   26.28   26.91   -0.63
2016   9   26.15   26.80   -0.65
2016  10   25.98   26.75   -0.78
2016  11   25.95   26.75   -0.80
2016  12   26.10   26.65   -0.55
2017   1   26.12   26.45   -0.33
2017   2   26.68   26.66    0.02
2017   3   27.33   27.21    0.12
2017   4   28.04   27.73    0.30
2017   5   28.30   27.85    0.45
2017   6   28.06   27.65    0.41
2017   7   27.54   27.26    0.28
2017   8   26.70   26.91   -0.21
2017   9   26.29   26.80   -0.51
2017  10   26.15   26.75   -0.60
2017  11   25.74   26.75   -1.01
2017  12   25.62   26.65   -1.03

 

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

 

Southern Oscillation Index

 

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the end of 2017 was -1.9 and is again in neutral zone. Latest 30-day SOI Index on 6th January was -4.4 which is also in the neutral zone. SOI has swung widely in the last two months.

 

 

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 

SOI Monthly graph up to December 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

 

 

30 Days average SOI was -2.61 at the end of December 2017 and -4.83 on 6th January 2018 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and has entered negative zone again after many months in positive zone though in enso neutral area.

 

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 2nd January 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late Spring.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking  here

As per BOM -Australia 3rd January 2018

ENSO outlooks

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With JAS 2017 ONI Index At -0.2ºC”

Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During 2017”

Click here for Update “Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017”

Click here for Update “2016/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event”

Click here for Update “Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016”

Click here for Update “Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016”

Click here for Update “Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016”

Click here for Update “Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016”

Click here for Update “NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events”

Click here for Update “Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June  2105”

Click here for Update “El Nino Update – 5th May 2015”

Click here for Update “Weak El Nino Develops March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 7th February 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th January 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

 

મુખ્ય મંત્રી અમૃતમ “મા” અને “મા વાત્સલ્ય” યોજના

મધ્યમ વર્ગ સુધી ના કુટુંબો ને મેડિકલ સારવાર માં કામ આવે તેવી યોજના. વાંચો વિગત.

આડૉક્યુમેન્ટ 4 પાના નું છે જે વાંચવા માટે તેમજ પાના ફેરવવા માટે ડાબી બાજુ નીચે એરો ક્લિક કરો

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