Cyclonic Storm “VARDAH” Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Current Weather Conditions on 8th December 2016

 

A Low Pressure developed over West Pacific Ocean which tracked mainly Westwards crossing the Gulf Of Thailand and subsequently entered the Indian Ocean Basin over South Andaman Sea. The System reorganized to a Low Pressure and then a Well Marked Low Pressure around 4th December 2016. The System concentrated to a Depression on 6th December and to a Deep Depression on 7th December and today it intensified to a Cyclonic Storm “VARDAH”. The Winds were 45 knots and 997 mb. Central pressure as per International Agencies and 35 knots as per IMD/RSMC. Location is over Southeast Bay of Bengal at Latitude 11.4 N & Longitude 92.1 E. as per JTWC @ 00 UTC on 8th December 2016.

 

1 knot= 1.85 km./hour

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 05B.FIVE Warning No. 3 Issued at 0300 UTC on 8th December 2016

(Cyclonic STorm “VARDAH”)

io052016_3

NRL IR Satellite Image of 05B.VARDAH (Cyclonic Storm “VARDAH”)

on 8th December 2016 @ 0730 UTC (01.00 pm. IST)

 

05bvardah-45kts-995mb-113n-920e_ir-100pc

 

NRL Water Vapor Satellite Image of 05B.VARDAH (Cyclonic Storm “VARDAH”)

on 8th December 2016 @ 0530 UTC (11.00 am. IST)

 

 05bvardah-45kts-997mb-111n-921e_vapor-100pc

 

UW-CIMSS “TCTrack” Tropical Cyclone Tracker for Cyclonic Storm 05B.VARDAH
on 8th December 2016 @ 0600 UTC ( 11.30 am. IST )

 

uw_vardah_081216_0600z

 

 

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Bulletin No.: 10 (BOB 06/2016)

Sub: Cyclonic Storm, VARDAH over Southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh Coast

Time of issue: 1200 hours IST

Dated: 08.12.2016 available here IMD Bulletin No.: Ten

 

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 8th to 12th December 2016

The Maximum Temperature has remained 1 to 2 C above normal while Minimum Temperature has been near normal during the last week. The winds are blowing from Northeast /East. Around 10th the winds will start blowing from Northwest direction for two days and so there is a chance for increase in morning humidity and foggy weather on 11th December. Maximum Temperature is expected to remain near normal or above normal while Minimum Temperature will be near normal. Bay of Bengal System not expected to affect Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.

 

Caution: Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

સાવચેતી:

સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.

 

 Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 8th December 2016

 

akila_081216

 

 Weather Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 8th December 2016

 

 

sanjsamachar_081216

Near Normal Temperature Over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch – Rain/Snowfall Expected Over Jammu & Kashimr/H.P. – Update 21st November 2016

Current Weather Conditions on 21st November 2016

Maximum Temperature was near normal and Minimum Temperature was near normalto 1 to 2 C below normal over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch during the last week. Winds were from Northeast and dry conditions prevailed.

 

 

 

 Weakly Temperature Variations in Ahmedabad till 21st November 2016

 42647_211116

Weakly Temperature Variations in Rajkot till 21st November 2016

 

42737_211116

Weakly Temperature Variations in Surat till 21st November 2016

 

42840_211116

Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch: 21st November to 27th November 2016

Maximum Temperature will remain near normal and Minimum Temperature will remain normal or 1 to 2 C below normal. The winds will be from Northeast and some times from East during the forecast period. Cloudy on some days but dry ( less humidity).

Rainfall expected over plains of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh with Snowfall over hilly regions of these States during the week on many days of forecast period. Quantum of Rainfall/Snow to increase on 25ht/26th November 2016.

 

અપડેટ 21 નવેમ્બર 2016

છેલ્લા અઠવાડિયા માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં મહત્તમ તાપમાન નોર્મલ નજીક રહેલ અને ન્યુનત્તમ તાપમાન નોર્મલ અથવા નોર્મલ થી એકાદ બે ડિગ્રી નીચું રહેલ. વાતાવરણ સૂકું રહેલ.

આગાહી:
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત: 21 નવેમ્બર થી 27 નવેમ્બર 2016

મહત્તમ તાપમાન નોર્મલ નજીક રહેશે અને ન્યુનત્તમ તાપમાન નોર્મલ અથવા નોર્મલ થી એકાદ બે ડિગ્રી નીચું રહેશે. પવનો મુખ્યત્વે ઉત્તર પૂર્વ ના અને ક્યારેક પૂર્વ ના રહેશે. ક્યારેક ક્યારેક વાદળો થશે પણ વાતાવરણ સૂકું (ભેજ મુક્ત) રહેશે.

જમ્મુ કાશ્મીર અને હિમાચલ પ્રદેશ માં વરસાદ અને પહાડી વિસ્તારો માં બરફ વરસાદ પડશે. તેમજ તે 25 અને 26 તારીખ માં માત્રા વધશે.

 

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 21st November 2016

 

akila_211116

 

Weather Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 21st November 2016

 

 

 

sanjsamachar_21116

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second 3 Monthly Season With La Nina Threshold – Overall ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016

ENSO Status on 5th November 2016

નિનો 3.4 SST અનોમલી સળંગ બીજા ત્રિમાસિક સીઝન માં -0.5 થી નીચે.
છતાં હજુ ENSO ન્યુટ્રલ પરિબળ.

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930).
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has recently been changed from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The current El Nino event ended at the end of July 2016. Due to change in Climatology from 1981-2010 to 1986-2015 there was a change in the date as to when a full fledged El Nino was confirmed which was at the end of February 2015 considering the SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region based on Extended Reconstructed SST – (ERSST.v4). The graph below shows that at the end of October 2016 there have been two 3-monthly seasons JAS 2016 at -0.5ºC & ASO 2016 at -0.7ºC having La Nina threshold. Technically a full fledged La Nina can not develop during the year 2016, relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there are now only two 3-monthly seasons left after October 2016.

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph till October 2016

 

oni_aso_2016

 

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC


2014  10   27.25   26.91    0.34
2014  11   27.51   26.88    0.63
2014  12   27.40   26.80    0.61
2015   1   27.22   26.61    0.61
2015   2   27.25   26.80    0.45
2015   3   27.79   27.32    0.47
2015   4   28.59   27.86    0.73
2015   5   28.83   27.98    0.85
2015   6   28.70   27.76    0.94
2015   7   28.50   27.37    1.13
2015   8   28.47   27.02    1.45
2015   9   28.62   26.94    1.68
2015  10   28.86   26.91    1.95
2015  11   29.14   26.88    2.25
2015  12   29.04   26.80    2.24
2016   1   28.94   26.61    2.33
2016   2   28.89   26.80    2.09
2016   3   28.87   27.32    1.55
2016   4   28.97   27.86    1.11
2016   5   28.60   27.98    0.62
2016   6   27.82   27.76    0.06
2016   7   26.99   27.37   -0.38
2016   8   26.39   27.02   -0.63
2016   9   26.22   26.94   -0.72
2016  10   26.06   26.91   -0.84


 

 

Oni Index for JAS 2016 was -0.5ºC and ONI Index for ASO 2016 as -0.7ºC, both are below -0.5ºC, the La Nina threshold which has been reached for just two consecutive 3-monthly seasons. Overall ENSO neutral conditions prevail till end of October 2016.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

 

Southern Oscillation Index

 

As per BOM, Australia:

The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3rd November is -5.0 within the neutral ENSO range. SOI values have been plummeting from the high of +14 reached in first week of October 2016. Currently there is a disconnect between SST anomaly and SOI.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 soi30_03_november16

 

SOI Monthly graph up to October 2016 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

soi_oct_2016

 

SOI was -4.51 at the end of October 2016 and -4.44 on 4th Novemberr 2016 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

 

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 31st October 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is favored to develop (~70% chance) during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2016 and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) during winter 2016-17.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here

As per BOM -Australia 25th October 2016

Pacific remains ENSO-neutral – A La Niña WATCH remains in place.

Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016 Based On NOAA Criteria

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016

Click here for Update “Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016”

Click here for Update “Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016”

Click here for Update “Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016”

Click here for Update “NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events”

Click here for Update “Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June  2105”

Click here for Update “El Nino Update – 5th May 2015”

Click here for Update “Weak El Nino Develops March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 7th February 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th January 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

Depression Over Westcentral Bay Of Bengal – JTWC Issues TCFA

Current Weather Conditions on 3rd November 2016

 

A Low Pressure developed over Southeast Bay of Bengal on 1st November. Subsequently the System strengthened to a Well Marked Low pressure on 2nd November and today the System concentrated to a Depression located over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal, Located at Latitude 13.8N & Long. 85.8E. about 600 Km. East Northeast from Chennai and 500 Km. Southeast of Andhra Coast.

 

1 knot= 1.85 km./hour

JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued on 3rd November 2016 @ 00 UTC

 

io9016_tcfa

NRL IR Satellite Image of 90B.INVEST (Depression) on 3rd November 2016 @ 1100 UTC (04.30 pm. IST)

 

90binvest-30kts-1000mb-139n-858e_ir-100pc

 

NRL Water Vapor Satellite Image of 90B.INVEST (Depression)

 on 3rd November 2016 @ 1100 UTC (04.30 pm. IST)

 

 90binvest-30kts-1000mb-139n-858e_vapor-100pc

 

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Bulletin No.: 3 (BOB 04/2016)

Time of issue: 1300 hours IST

Dated: 03.11.2016 available here IMD Bulletin No.: Three

 

Forecast:Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 3rd to 10th November 2016

The humidity has decreased and will decrease further during the forecast period. Winds will blow from North & Northeast and sometimes from Easterly direction. Maximum Temperature is expected to remain near normal and Maximum Temperature will be around 33 C to 35 C and Minimum Temperature will be around 18 to 21 C. Bay of Bengal System not expected to affect Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.

 

Caution: Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.

સાવચેતી:

સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.

 

 

 

 Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 3rd November 2016

 

akila_031116_edited

 

 Weather Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 3rd November 2016

 

sanjsamachar_031116