Well Marked Low Pressure Over Arabian Sea – Expected To Strengthen Further

Current Weather Conditions on 24th October 2014 @ 7.30 am.

From IMD  Inference issued at  1910 hours IST  23rd October:

The Well Marked Low Pressure area over Southeast & Adjoining East Central Arabian Sea Persists. The System would concentrate into a Depression during next 24 hours. It is likely to move initially in a Northwest direction and subsequently may intensify into a Cyclonic Storm.

Associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extending up to Mid-Tropospheric level also persists.

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Srilanka and adjoining gulf of Mannar extending up to 0.9 km. above mean sea level persists.

Observing the GFS MSLP charts the Low Pressure area is now at 1006 millibars.

IMD GFS (T574) MSLP Forecast Chart Valid 23rd October 2014 @ 12 UTC

 

00hgfs_mslp.gif_231014

This system is being monitored by NRL as 90A.INVEST. Current location is Lat. 12.7 N & Long. 61.5 E with 25 knots and 1006 mb. in the West Central Arabian Sea.

NRL IR Satellite Image Dated 24th Ocotber 2014 @ 0130 UTC

90AINVEST.25kts-1006mb-127N-615E.100pc

The Well Marked Low Pressure is expected to concentrate into a Depression within 24 hours and subsequently intensify two notches into a Cyclonic Storm as it tracks initially North Northwestwards towards Oman.

24 Hours Earlier Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Forecat Chart

Valid 30th October 00 UTC

(based on ECMWF Forecast run dated 22nd October 12 UTC)

 

ECMWF_221014_1200z

Latest Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 31st October 00 UTC

(based on ECMWF Forecast run dated 23rd October 12 UTC)

ECMWF_231014_1200z

 

Latest Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 30th October 09 UTC

(based on GFS Forecast run dated 23rd October 12 UTC)

GFS_231014_1200z

 Forecast Track By IMD Multi Model Ensemble (MME)
mme.png_231014

Forecast: 24th to 31st October 2014

ECMWF & GSF are now having similar outcome for the System developing in the South Arabian Sea. GFS is consistent with the forecast track compared to 24 hours earlier, however, the latest ECMWF shows that it would take more time to reach towards Saurashtra  Gujarat compared to 24 hours ago forecast track. This System is expected to become a Cyclonic Storm and if the track towards Gujarat & Saurashtra materializes, farmers should be cautious. Western Disturbance as well as future WD during the forecast period could affect the final outcome this System. Forecast outcome can change and updates will be given as and when available.

 

આગાહી તારીખ ૨૪ થી ૩૧ ઓક્ટોબર ૨૦૧૪:

અરબી સમુદ્ર માં જે લો પ્રેસર થયું છે તે ધીમે ધીમે મજબૂત બની અને ગઈ કાલે વેલ માર્ક લો માં પરિવર્તિત થયું. આ સીસ્ટમ હજુ મજબૂત બની ડીપ્રેસન માં પરિવર્તિત થશે અને ઊત્તર ઊત્તર પશ્ચિમ તરફ ગતિ કરશે જેથી પહેલા ઓમાન બાજુ જશે. ત્યાર બાદ બંને ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મૂજબ આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ ૩૦/૩૧ તારીખ આસપાસ આવે તેવું બતાવે છે. આ સીસ્ટમ પહેલા ઓમાન બાજુ જતી હોઈ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત તરફ કઈ રીતે આવશે તે જોવાનું છે. જોકે બંને ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મૂજબ તેવી શક્યતા બતાવે છે, પણ ૨૪ કલાક વહેલા મોડું થઇ શકે. હજુ ૨૪ થી ૪૮ કલાક આ સીસ્ટમ નો અભ્યાસ કરી ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક ની ચોક્કસતા જાણવા મળશે.

ટૂંક માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ માં સજાગ રહેવું કારણ કે જો ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ પ્રમાણે આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ બાજુ આવે તો પવન અને વરસાદ નું નૂકસાન પણ થઇ શકે. આ સીસ્ટમ ના અનૂસંગિક વાદળ સમૂહો  બહુ મોટા વિસ્તાર માં ફેલાશે અને ક્યારેક ક્યારેક તેની પૂછડીયો સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત ઉપર થી પસાર થશે. રવિવાર થી વાદળો નું પ્રમાણ વધશે.

નોંધ: વાવાઝોડા અને આવી સીસ્ટમ માટે હવામાન ખાતા ની માહિતી ઉપર મદાર રાખવો.

Forecast_241014

Low Pressure Over Arabian Sea – Expected To Strengthen To A Depression Initially

Current Weather Conditions on 23rd October 2014 @ 7.00 am.

From IMD  Inference issued at  1930 hours IST  22nd October:

The Low Pressure area over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighborhood persists. The System is likely to become Well Marked Low Pressure area during next 24 hours and further concentrate into a Depression during subsequent 48 hours. The trough at mean sea level extending from this System to Eastcentral Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast also persists.

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Southwest Bay of Bengal off Srilanka coast and extending up to 3.1 kms. above mean sea level persists.

Observing the GFS MSLP charts the Low Pressure area is now at 1008 millibars.

IMD GFS (T574) MSLP Forecast Chart Valid 22nd October 2014 @ 00 UTC

 

00hgfs_mslp.gif_221014

This system is being monitored by NRL from 22-10-2014 @ 1300 UTC as 90A.INVEST. Current location is Lat. 10.9 N & Long. 67.3 E with 20 knots and 1007 mb.

NRL IR Satellite Image Dated 23rd Ocotber 2014 @ 0100 UTC

90AINVEST.20kts-1007mb-109N-673E.100pc

Two major Forecast models viz. GFS & ECMWF had very different outcome on the further developing as well as track for the System, however, the latest forecast run is now showing some agreement in the outcome. System could track towards Saurashtra/Gujarat. If two more forecast runs have similar outcome it would boost the forecast confidence.

Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 30th October 00 UTC

(based on ECMWF Forecast run dated 22nd October 12 UTC)

 

ECMWF_221014_1200z

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 30th October 09 UTC

(based on GFS Forecast run dated 22nd October 12 UTC)

GFS_221014_1200z

 

Forecast: 23rd to 30th October 2014

ECMWF & GSF are now having similar outcome for the System developing in the South Arabian Sea. Forecast outcome can change and updates will be given as and when available. ECMWF tracks this as a strong System towards Gujarat & Saurashtra, so farmers should be cautious. Confidence in the final outcome is being built because of similar tracks for both these models. There is a possibility that Western Disturbance will affect the final outcome of the Arabian Sea System. Future WD during the forecast period could also affect the outcome.

 

તારીખ ૨૩ થી ૩૦ ઓક્ટોબર:

 

અરબી સમુદ્ર માં જે લો પ્રેસર થયું છે તે ધીમે ધીમે મજબૂત બને છે. ૨૪ કલાક માં આ સીસ્ટમ વેલ માર્ક લો થશે. આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ આવવાની શક્યતા વધતી જાય છે. બે ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મૂજબ આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ ૨૯/૩૦ તારીખ આસપાસ આવે તેવું બતાવે છે. હજુ ૨૪ કલાક આ સીસ્ટમ નો અભ્યાસ કરી વધુ ચોક્કસ આગાહી થશે.

 

ટૂંક માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત માં સજાગ રહેવું કારણ કે જો ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ પ્રમાણે આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ આવે તો પવન અને વરસાદ નું નૂકસાન પણ થઇ શકે.

 

નોંધ: વાવાઝોડા અને આવી સીસ્ટમ માટે હવામાન ખાતા ની માહિતી ઉપર મદાર રાખવો.

Forecast_231014

Arabian Sea To Host A Low Pressure System

Current Weather Conditions on 22nd October 2014 @ 7.00 am.

Weather Conditions of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were near normal to about 1 Degrees above normal at most places except Naliya which was 4 Degrees above normal. The Minimum Temperature has been about 1 to 2 Degrees C.  above normal at most places of the regions.

From IMD  Inference issued at  2015 hours IST  21st October:
A Low Pressure area over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighborhood persists.  The System is likely to become a Well Marked low Pressure area during the next 48 hours. A trough extends from this System to East Central Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast.
The trough of low over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood persists.

Observing the GFS MSLP charts the Low Pressure area is currently very weak at 1010 millibars.

IMD GFS (T574) MSLP Forecast Chart Valid 22nd October 2014 @ 00 UTC

12hgfs_mslp.gif_221014

Two major Forecast models viz. GFS & ECMWF have different outcome on the further developing as well as track for the System that is under development.

Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 28th October 00 UTC

ECMWF_211014_1200z

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 28th October 00 UTC

GFS_211014_1200z

 

Forecast: 22nd to 29th October 2014

ECMWF & GSF both have different out come for the System developing in the South Arabian Sea. Forecast outcome will change and updates will be given as and when available. ECMWF tracks this as a strong System towards Gujarat & Saurashtra, so farmers should be cautious. Currently there is hardly any confidence in the final outcome because of completely different tracks for both these models. Western Disturbance is expected around 24th/25th over Pakistan/North India, so there is a possibility of WD affecting the final outcome of the Arabian Sea System. Future WD during the forecast period could also affect the outcome.

Forecast: 22nd October to 29th October 2014

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to be near normal or slightly above normal from 22nd to 25th October. However, the Maximum Temperature is expected to decrease during the latter parts of the forecast period. Clouding could affect the Minimum Temperature to increase during the latter parts of the forecast period.

 

તારીખ ૨૨ થી ૨૯ ઓક્ટોબર:

મહત્તમ તાપમાન સામાન્ય થી એકાદ ડીગ્રી ઊંચું રહેશે અને આગાહી ના પાછલા દિવસો માં મહત્તમ તાપમાન થોડું ઘટશે. ન્યુનત્તમ તાપમાન સમય આસપાસ રહેશે અને આગાહી ના પાછલા દિવસો માં વાદળા થશે તો એક બે ડીગ્રી ન્યુનત્તમ તાપમાન ઊંચું રહેશે.

અરબી સમુદ્ર માં એક લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. હાલ ઘણું નબળું છે પણ ધીમે ધીમે મજબૂત બની વેલ માર્ક લો થશે. આ સીસ્ટમ કેટલી મજબૂત થશે અને કઈ તરફ જશે તેમાં બહુ મોટા મતમતાંતર છે જે ઉપર ના નકશા માં આપેલ છે. એક મોડલ મૂજબ આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ ૨૮/૨૯ તારીખ આસપાસ આવે તેવું બતાવે છે તો બીજું મોડલ આ સીસ્ટમ ને ઓમાન તરફ ધકેલે છે.

ટૂંક માં સજાગ રહેવું. ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ માં વિશ્વાસ બેશશે ત્યારે ફરી જાણ કરવામાં આવશે.

Forecast_221014

Transition of Monsoons – Withdrawal Of Southwest Monsoon & Onset Of Northeast Monsoon

Current Weather Conditions on 18th October 2014 @ 7.30 am.

Yesterday the southwest monsoon had further withdrawn from most parts of Jharkhand & Chhattisgarh; remaining parts of  Bihar, Madhya Pradesh & Maharashtra and more parts of Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Telengana and North Interior Karnataka. The withdrawal line of southwest monsoon passed through Tadong, Jamshedput, Titagarh, Jagdalpur, Hanamkonda, Gulbarga, Vengurla, Lat.16.0°N Long.70.0°E and Lat.16.0°N/Long.60.0°E.

Current winds and rain scenario suggests that the transition of Monsoons is taking place. Simultaneous withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from the remaining parts of the country and the onset of North East Monsoon over Tamilnadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of South Andhra Pradesh and South Karnataka today the 18th October.

Note: on 17th October IMD had mentioned that “Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from the remaining parts of the country and commencement of northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamilnadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of south Andhra Pradesh and south Karnataka during the next 48 hours.”

UW-CIMSS Meteosat 7 IR Satellite Image
on 18th October 2014 @ 0000 UTC ( 5.30 am. IST)

irnm5_181014_0000z

Weather Conditions of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were about 1 Degrees above normal at most places and 2 Degrees above normal in small pockets of the above regions. The Minimum Temperature has been near normal.

Weekly Temperature Variation for Amreli Till 17th October 2014

Amreli_171014

Weekly Temperature Variation for Ahmedabad Till 17th October 2014

 

Ahmedabad_171014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Rajkot Till 17th October 2014

Rajkot_171014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Bhuj Till 17th October 2014

Bhuj_171014

Weekly Temperature Variation for Naliya Till 17th October 2014

Naliya_171014

 

Forecast: 18th October to 23rd October 2014

 

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to be near normal or slightly above normal from 18th to 20th October. However, the Maximum Temperature is expected to increase again during 21st to 23rd by 1 to 2 Degrees.

 

તારીખ ૧૮ થી ૨૩ ઓક્ટોબર:

 

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત:

 

તારીખ ૧૮ થી ૨૦ મહત્તમ તાપમાન તેમજ ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન સામાન્ય આસપાસ અથવા એકાદ ડીગ્રી ઊંચું રહેશે.
તારીખ ૨૧ થી ૨૩ મહત્તમ તાપમાન માં એક થી બે ડીગ્રી નો વધારો થશે આ સમય દરમ્યાન.

 

‘HUDHUD’ Landfall Details – Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch Under Grip Of Hot Weather

Current Weather Conditions on 13th October 2014 @ 6.30 am.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ made landfall yesterday between 0700 UTC to 0800 UTC  over Visakhapatnam, North Odisha (the actual distance was about 10 to 15 Kms. Northwest of Visakhapatanam). The map below shows the actual track of the Very Severe Tropical Storm ‘HUDHUD’

Hudhud_Landfall

 

Please read the IMD National Bulletin & RSMC Bulletin first.

IMD National Bulletin available here

RSMC Bulletin available here

NRL IR Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0700 UTC (12.30 pm. IST )

03BHUDHUD.115kts-937mb-175N-835E.100pc_ir

 

 

NRL Water Vapor Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0730 UTC (01.00 pm. IST )

.03BHUDHUD.115kts-937mb-175N-835E.100pc_vapor

NRL Visible Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0800 UTC (01.30 pm. IST )

03BHUDHUD.115kts-937mb-175N-835E.100pc_vis

 

JTWC has issued their last warning for Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 19  @ 1500 UTC on 12-10-2014 for conditions at 1200 UTC of 12-10-2014. System 03B.Hudhud had weakened after making landfall to 105 knots wind speed with 944 mb. Central Pressure located at Lat. 18.0°N & Long. 82.9°E over land.

 

1 knot wind speed  = 1.852 Kms./Hour wind speed.

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 03B.HUDHUD Warning No. 19

io0314_19

Weather Conditions of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were about 3 Degrees more than normal with Amreli 4 Degrees and Kandla 5 Degrees above normal.

Weekly Temperature Variation for Kandla Till 12th October 2014

 

Kandla_121014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Amreli Till 12th October 2014

Amreli_121014

Weekly Temperature Variation for Ahmedabad Till 12th October 2014

 

Ahmedabad_121014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Rajkot Till 12th October 2014

 

Rajkot_121014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Bhuj Till 12th October 2014

 

 Bhuj_121014

 

Forecast: 13th October to 16th October 2014

 

The Maximum Temperature is expected to be 1 to 3 Degrees above normal during the forecast period instead of 3 to 4 Degrees above normal currently prevailing, so it will be a partial relief. It would be cloudy on 13th & 14th October. There is chances of Fog on 15th morning over parts of Saurashtra & Gujarat.

 

તારીખ ૧૩ થી ૧૬ ઓક્ટોબર:

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત:

મહત્તમ તાપમાન હાલ સામાન્ય થી ૩ થી ૪ ડીગ્રી C ઊંચું છે તે આગાહી સમય દરમ્યાન ૧ થી ૩ ડીગ્રી C ઊંચું રહેશે એટલે થોડીક રાહત રહેશે. ૧૩ તેમજ ૧૪ તારીખે વાદળો રહેશે. તારીખ ૧૫ ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત ના અમૂક ભાગ માં ઝાકળ ની શક્યતા છે.

 

forecast_131014