Low Pressure To Develop Over Bay Of Bengal By 28th August – Expected To Benefit Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch

Current Weather Conditions on 26th August 2014 @ 11.00 pm.

The rainfall activity had improved from 23rd August on wards and light to medium rainfall has been reported from many places in Gujarat & Saurashtra.

The Western end of Monsoon trough continues to run close to the foot-hills of the Himalayas while the Eastern end has shifted Southwards and now passes through Balya, Gaya, Jamshedpur,Balasore and thennce Southeastwards to North Bay of Bengal.

The Off-shore trough at mean sea level from South Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists.

The East West shear zone roughly along 17 N between 3.1 Kms. & 4.5 Kms. above mean sea level with an embedded Cyclonic Circulation over West Central Bay of Bengal & vicinity persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would form over West Central & adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh- South Odisha coasts by 28th August.

 The Western disturbance as an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Afghanistan & neighborhood extends uo to 3.1 Kms. above mean sea level persists.


 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 31st August 2014

 

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COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 1st September 2014

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COLA/IGES  SLP Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 28th August 2014

india2.48hr_280814

COLA/IGES  SLP Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 31st August 2014

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IMD MSL Pressure Forecast Map Valid for 1200 UTC 28th August 2014

 

IMD_mslp_260814

 

IMD Daily All India Mean Rainfall (mm./day) Forecast Till 2nd September 2014

GFS574rain-drf_260814

 

The above rainfall graph shows that rainfall activity over whole India average will be good in last two days of August as well as the first two days of September. Overall above average rainfall expected for India for week ending 2nd September.

 

Forecast: 27th August to 2nd September 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch :

27th to  29th August Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat scattered showers at a few places. South Gujarat and some parts of Central Gujarat could get off & on scattered light rain/showers during the forecast period.

30th August to 2nd September major portion of Saurashtra & Gujarat expected to get medium to heavy rainfall during the forecast period while some parts of Saurashtra & Gujarat would get light to medium rainfall. Kutch is also expected to get rain from this round, however, update will be given once the Low Pressure forms over the Bay of Bengal.

Overall looking at the current forecast models this round of rainfall will be better than the earlier round that has just ended.

forecast_260814

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ :

તારીખ ૨૭ ઓગસ્ટ થી ૨ સપ્ટેમ્બર ૨૦૧૪:

આગલો રાઉન્ડ પૂરો થયો છે પરંતુ તારીખ ૨૭ થી ૨૯ ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત માં છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અને દક્ષીણ ગુજરાત ને મધ્ય ગુજરાત માં છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અથવા હળવો વરસાદ.

નવો રાઉન્ડ:
તારીખ ૩૦ ઓગસ્ટ થી ૨ સપ્ટેમ્બર દરમ્યાન સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત ના મોટા ભાગ માં મધ્યમ અને ભારે વરસાદ થશે બાકી ના વિસ્તારો માં હળવો માધ્યમ વરસાદ થશે. કચ્છ માં વરસાદ ના ઊજળા સંજોગો છે પરંતુ બંગાળની ખાડી માં લો પ્રેસર થયે કચ્છ માટે ની અપડેટ આપવામાં આવશે.

આગળ રાઉન્ડ કરતા આ રાઉન્ડ માં વરસાદ ની વધુ આશા છે.

Conditions To Improve Over Some Parts Of Saurashtra & Gujarat 23rd To 25th August

Current Weather Conditions on 20th August 2014 @ 11.00 pm.

The rainfall activity has been less over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat.

REGION AVERAGE till 20th August 2014 @ 8.30 am. IST:

SAURASHTRA REGION has received 416 mm. rainfall which is  65.33 % against normal seasonal rainfall of  637 mm.

KUTCH REGION has received 167 mm. rainfall which is  43.15 % against normal seasonal rainfall of  387 mm.

NORTH GUJARAT REGION has received 316 mm. rainfall which is  46.87 % against normal seasonal rainfall of  675 mm.

EAST CENTRAL GUJARAT REGION has received 443.5 mm. rainfall which is  54.76 % against normal seasonal rainfall of  810 mm.

SOUTH GUJARAT REGION has received 757 mm. rainfall which is  55.75 % against normal seasonal rainfall of  1358 mm.

WHOLE GUJARAT STATE has received 458.3 mm. rainfall which is  57.50 % against normal seasonal rainfall of  797 mm.

All India Sub-Division Wise Rainfall Performance till 20th August 2014

daily_200814

 

Whole India departure of rainfall from 1st June to 20th August 2014 is -18% while it is -32% for Gujarat and -21% for Saurashtra & Kutch Sub-Division.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level continues to run close to the foothills of Himalayas.

The upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim in lower levels persists.

The trough from Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to North Bay of Bengal across Gangetic West Bengal between 3.1 Kms. & 5.8 Kms. above sea level persists.

The upper air cyclonic circulation over South Interior Karnataka & neighborhood extending up to 1.5 Kms. above mean sea level persists.

The East ­West shear zone  roughly along Latitude 10.0°N across south Peninsula  extending between 3.1 & 4.5 Kms. above mean sea level persists.

The  trough from East Madhya Pradesh to Kerala across interior Karnataka extending up to 0.9 Kms. above mean sea level persists.

 

 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 24th August 2014

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COLA/IGES 850 mb. Streamlines Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 24th August 2014

 

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COLA/IGES 850 mb. Streamlines Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 25th August 2014

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The above 850 mb. charts show a Cyclonic Circulation near Goa on 24th August and moving Northwards along Konkan coast the next day.

IMD Daily All India Mean Rainfall (mm./day) Forecast Till 27th August

GFS574rain-drf_200814

 

The above rainfall graph shows that rainfall activity over whole India will be less than normal till 22nd August and the rainfall activity expected to pick up during 23rd to 25th August.

Forecast: 21st August to 26th August 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch :

21st &  22nd August most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat scattered showers at a few places. South Gujarat and some parts of Central Gujarat could get off & on scattered light rain/showers during the forecast period.

23rd to 26th August 50% of Saurashtra & Kutch expected to get light rain or medium rain/showers during the forecast period while rest of Saurashtra would get scattered showers at a few places. South Gujarat and some parts of Central Gujarat could get  scattered light to medium rainfall or sharp showers during the forecast period.

In short conditions to be better during 23rd to 25th/26th August compared to last few days.

Forecast_210814

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ :

તારીખ ૨૧ થી ૨૬ ઓગસ્ટ ૨૦૧૪:

તારીખ ૨૧ અને ૨૨ ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર , કચ્છ અને ઊત્તર ગુજરાત માં છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અને દક્ષીણ ગુજરાત ને મધ્ય ગુજરાત માં છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અથવા હળવો વરસાદ.

તારીખ ૨૩ થી ૨૬ ઓગસ્ટ દરમ્યાન સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ઊતર ગુજરાત માં હળવો  મધ્યમ વરસાદ અથવા છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અને બાકી ના ૫૦% વિસ્તાર માં સામાન્ય  છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા . દક્ષીણ ગુજરાત માં છૂટો છવાયો હળવો મધ્યમ વરસાદ અથવા છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા પડશે. મધ્ય પૂર્વ ગુજરાત ના અમૂક ભાગ માં પણ છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અથવા હળવો વરસાદ પડશે.

ટૂક માં તારીખ ૨૩ થી ૨૫/૨૬ દરમ્યાન વાતાવરણ માં થોડો સુધારો જોવા મળશે.

Dry Conditions Over Most Parts Of Northwest India 18th To 22nd August

Current Weather Conditions on 16th August 2014 @ 11.00 pm.

The rainfall activity has been less over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & North Gujarat. There has been scattered light rain over East Central Gujarat and scattered light to medium rainfall over South Gujarat during last few days.

Detailed Rainfall List for Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat till 16th August 2014

Rainfall1_160814

Rainfall2_250714

 District Wise Rainfall Till 16th August 2014

Rainfall_District_160814

 

The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozepur, Karnal, Bareily, Bahraich, Patna, Balurghat and thence eastwards to Manipur across Assam & Meghalaya.

An off-shore trough mean sea level from South Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast persists.

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Sub Himalyan West Bengal & adjoining Bihar extending up to 1.5 Kms. above sea level persists.

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation Over North Bay of Bengal & Neighborhood between 5.8 Kms. and 7.6 Kms. above mean sea level persists.

The trough in Mid & Upper Tropospheric Westerlies now runs roughly along 70.0°E and North of Lat. 28.0° N.

 

 COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 18th August 2014

india3.48hr_160814

 

COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 19th August 2014

 

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COLA/IGES GFS Precipitation Forecast Map Valid 1200 UTC 20th August 2014

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IMD Daily All India Mean Rainfall (mm./day) Forecast Till 23rd August

GFS574rain-drf_160814

The above rainfall graph shows that rainfall activity over whole India will be less than normal during 18th to 21st August and the rainfall activity expected to pick up from 22nd./23rd August.

 

Forecast: 17th August to 22nd August 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch :

17th August there would be scattered showers/light rain but quantity of rain and the area of rain coverage would be less.

18th to 22nd August most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat would be mainly dry with occasional showers. South Gujarat and some parts of Central Gujarat could get off & on scattered light rain/showers during the forecast period.

Any UAC or Low Pressure System expected to form over the BAy of Bengal is not expected to affect Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch.

Forecast_170814

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ :

તારીખ ૧૭ ના છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અથવા હળવો વરસાદ ચાલુ રહેશે જોકે વિસ્તાર ઘટવા માં છે.

તારીખ ૧૮ થી ૨૨ ઓગસ્ટ દરમ્યાન સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત માં સામાન્ય છાંટા છૂટી સિવાય નોંધ પાત્ર વરસાદ ની શક્યતા નથી. દક્ષીણ ગુજરાત માં છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અથવા હળવો વરસાદ પડશે. મધ્ય પૂર્વ ગુજરાત ના અમૂક ભાગ માં પણ છુટા છવાયા ઝાપટા અથવા હળવો વરસાદ પડશે.

બંગાળની ખાડી માં લો પ્રેસર થાય અથવા UAC થાય તે સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત ને અસરકર્તા નહિ રહે.