Low Pressure Over Arabian Sea – Expected To Strengthen To A Depression Initially

Current Weather Conditions on 23rd October 2014 @ 7.00 am.

From IMD  Inference issued at  1930 hours IST  22nd October:

The Low Pressure area over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighborhood persists. The System is likely to become Well Marked Low Pressure area during next 24 hours and further concentrate into a Depression during subsequent 48 hours. The trough at mean sea level extending from this System to Eastcentral Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast also persists.

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Southwest Bay of Bengal off Srilanka coast and extending up to 3.1 kms. above mean sea level persists.

Observing the GFS MSLP charts the Low Pressure area is now at 1008 millibars.

IMD GFS (T574) MSLP Forecast Chart Valid 22nd October 2014 @ 00 UTC

 

00hgfs_mslp.gif_221014

This system is being monitored by NRL from 22-10-2014 @ 1300 UTC as 90A.INVEST. Current location is Lat. 10.9 N & Long. 67.3 E with 20 knots and 1007 mb.

NRL IR Satellite Image Dated 23rd Ocotber 2014 @ 0100 UTC

90AINVEST.20kts-1007mb-109N-673E.100pc

Two major Forecast models viz. GFS & ECMWF had very different outcome on the further developing as well as track for the System, however, the latest forecast run is now showing some agreement in the outcome. System could track towards Saurashtra/Gujarat. If two more forecast runs have similar outcome it would boost the forecast confidence.

Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 30th October 00 UTC

(based on ECMWF Forecast run dated 22nd October 12 UTC)

 

ECMWF_221014_1200z

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 30th October 09 UTC

(based on GFS Forecast run dated 22nd October 12 UTC)

GFS_221014_1200z

 

Forecast: 23rd to 30th October 2014

ECMWF & GSF are now having similar outcome for the System developing in the South Arabian Sea. Forecast outcome can change and updates will be given as and when available. ECMWF tracks this as a strong System towards Gujarat & Saurashtra, so farmers should be cautious. Confidence in the final outcome is being built because of similar tracks for both these models. There is a possibility that Western Disturbance will affect the final outcome of the Arabian Sea System. Future WD during the forecast period could also affect the outcome.

 

તારીખ ૨૩ થી ૩૦ ઓક્ટોબર:

 

અરબી સમુદ્ર માં જે લો પ્રેસર થયું છે તે ધીમે ધીમે મજબૂત બને છે. ૨૪ કલાક માં આ સીસ્ટમ વેલ માર્ક લો થશે. આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ આવવાની શક્યતા વધતી જાય છે. બે ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મૂજબ આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ ૨૯/૩૦ તારીખ આસપાસ આવે તેવું બતાવે છે. હજુ ૨૪ કલાક આ સીસ્ટમ નો અભ્યાસ કરી વધુ ચોક્કસ આગાહી થશે.

 

ટૂંક માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત માં સજાગ રહેવું કારણ કે જો ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ પ્રમાણે આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ આવે તો પવન અને વરસાદ નું નૂકસાન પણ થઇ શકે.

 

નોંધ: વાવાઝોડા અને આવી સીસ્ટમ માટે હવામાન ખાતા ની માહિતી ઉપર મદાર રાખવો.

Forecast_231014

Arabian Sea To Host A Low Pressure System

Current Weather Conditions on 22nd October 2014 @ 7.00 am.

Weather Conditions of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were near normal to about 1 Degrees above normal at most places except Naliya which was 4 Degrees above normal. The Minimum Temperature has been about 1 to 2 Degrees C.  above normal at most places of the regions.

From IMD  Inference issued at  2015 hours IST  21st October:
A Low Pressure area over Southeast Arabian Sea and neighborhood persists.  The System is likely to become a Well Marked low Pressure area during the next 48 hours. A trough extends from this System to East Central Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast.
The trough of low over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood persists.

Observing the GFS MSLP charts the Low Pressure area is currently very weak at 1010 millibars.

IMD GFS (T574) MSLP Forecast Chart Valid 22nd October 2014 @ 00 UTC

12hgfs_mslp.gif_221014

Two major Forecast models viz. GFS & ECMWF have different outcome on the further developing as well as track for the System that is under development.

Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 28th October 00 UTC

ECMWF_211014_1200z

Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Forecat Chart Valid 28th October 00 UTC

GFS_211014_1200z

 

Forecast: 22nd to 29th October 2014

ECMWF & GSF both have different out come for the System developing in the South Arabian Sea. Forecast outcome will change and updates will be given as and when available. ECMWF tracks this as a strong System towards Gujarat & Saurashtra, so farmers should be cautious. Currently there is hardly any confidence in the final outcome because of completely different tracks for both these models. Western Disturbance is expected around 24th/25th over Pakistan/North India, so there is a possibility of WD affecting the final outcome of the Arabian Sea System. Future WD during the forecast period could also affect the outcome.

Forecast: 22nd October to 29th October 2014

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to be near normal or slightly above normal from 22nd to 25th October. However, the Maximum Temperature is expected to decrease during the latter parts of the forecast period. Clouding could affect the Minimum Temperature to increase during the latter parts of the forecast period.

 

તારીખ ૨૨ થી ૨૯ ઓક્ટોબર:

મહત્તમ તાપમાન સામાન્ય થી એકાદ ડીગ્રી ઊંચું રહેશે અને આગાહી ના પાછલા દિવસો માં મહત્તમ તાપમાન થોડું ઘટશે. ન્યુનત્તમ તાપમાન સમય આસપાસ રહેશે અને આગાહી ના પાછલા દિવસો માં વાદળા થશે તો એક બે ડીગ્રી ન્યુનત્તમ તાપમાન ઊંચું રહેશે.

અરબી સમુદ્ર માં એક લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. હાલ ઘણું નબળું છે પણ ધીમે ધીમે મજબૂત બની વેલ માર્ક લો થશે. આ સીસ્ટમ કેટલી મજબૂત થશે અને કઈ તરફ જશે તેમાં બહુ મોટા મતમતાંતર છે જે ઉપર ના નકશા માં આપેલ છે. એક મોડલ મૂજબ આ સીસ્ટમ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ગુજરાત બાજુ ૨૮/૨૯ તારીખ આસપાસ આવે તેવું બતાવે છે તો બીજું મોડલ આ સીસ્ટમ ને ઓમાન તરફ ધકેલે છે.

ટૂંક માં સજાગ રહેવું. ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ માં વિશ્વાસ બેશશે ત્યારે ફરી જાણ કરવામાં આવશે.

Forecast_221014

Transition of Monsoons – Withdrawal Of Southwest Monsoon & Onset Of Northeast Monsoon

Current Weather Conditions on 18th October 2014 @ 7.30 am.

Yesterday the southwest monsoon had further withdrawn from most parts of Jharkhand & Chhattisgarh; remaining parts of  Bihar, Madhya Pradesh & Maharashtra and more parts of Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Telengana and North Interior Karnataka. The withdrawal line of southwest monsoon passed through Tadong, Jamshedput, Titagarh, Jagdalpur, Hanamkonda, Gulbarga, Vengurla, Lat.16.0°N Long.70.0°E and Lat.16.0°N/Long.60.0°E.

Current winds and rain scenario suggests that the transition of Monsoons is taking place. Simultaneous withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from the remaining parts of the country and the onset of North East Monsoon over Tamilnadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of South Andhra Pradesh and South Karnataka today the 18th October.

Note: on 17th October IMD had mentioned that “Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from the remaining parts of the country and commencement of northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamilnadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of south Andhra Pradesh and south Karnataka during the next 48 hours.”

UW-CIMSS Meteosat 7 IR Satellite Image
on 18th October 2014 @ 0000 UTC ( 5.30 am. IST)

irnm5_181014_0000z

Weather Conditions of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were about 1 Degrees above normal at most places and 2 Degrees above normal in small pockets of the above regions. The Minimum Temperature has been near normal.

Weekly Temperature Variation for Amreli Till 17th October 2014

Amreli_171014

Weekly Temperature Variation for Ahmedabad Till 17th October 2014

 

Ahmedabad_171014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Rajkot Till 17th October 2014

Rajkot_171014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Bhuj Till 17th October 2014

Bhuj_171014

Weekly Temperature Variation for Naliya Till 17th October 2014

Naliya_171014

 

Forecast: 18th October to 23rd October 2014

 

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to be near normal or slightly above normal from 18th to 20th October. However, the Maximum Temperature is expected to increase again during 21st to 23rd by 1 to 2 Degrees.

 

તારીખ ૧૮ થી ૨૩ ઓક્ટોબર:

 

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત:

 

તારીખ ૧૮ થી ૨૦ મહત્તમ તાપમાન તેમજ ન્યુનતમ તાપમાન સામાન્ય આસપાસ અથવા એકાદ ડીગ્રી ઊંચું રહેશે.
તારીખ ૨૧ થી ૨૩ મહત્તમ તાપમાન માં એક થી બે ડીગ્રી નો વધારો થશે આ સમય દરમ્યાન.

 

‘HUDHUD’ Landfall Details – Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch Under Grip Of Hot Weather

Current Weather Conditions on 13th October 2014 @ 6.30 am.

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘HUDHUD’ made landfall yesterday between 0700 UTC to 0800 UTC  over Visakhapatnam, North Odisha (the actual distance was about 10 to 15 Kms. Northwest of Visakhapatanam). The map below shows the actual track of the Very Severe Tropical Storm ‘HUDHUD’

Hudhud_Landfall

 

Please read the IMD National Bulletin & RSMC Bulletin first.

IMD National Bulletin available here

RSMC Bulletin available here

NRL IR Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0700 UTC (12.30 pm. IST )

03BHUDHUD.115kts-937mb-175N-835E.100pc_ir

 

 

NRL Water Vapor Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0730 UTC (01.00 pm. IST )

.03BHUDHUD.115kts-937mb-175N-835E.100pc_vapor

NRL Visible Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0800 UTC (01.30 pm. IST )

03BHUDHUD.115kts-937mb-175N-835E.100pc_vis

 

JTWC has issued their last warning for Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 19  @ 1500 UTC on 12-10-2014 for conditions at 1200 UTC of 12-10-2014. System 03B.Hudhud had weakened after making landfall to 105 knots wind speed with 944 mb. Central Pressure located at Lat. 18.0°N & Long. 82.9°E over land.

 

1 knot wind speed  = 1.852 Kms./Hour wind speed.

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 03B.HUDHUD Warning No. 19

io0314_19

Weather Conditions of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat were about 3 Degrees more than normal with Amreli 4 Degrees and Kandla 5 Degrees above normal.

Weekly Temperature Variation for Kandla Till 12th October 2014

 

Kandla_121014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Amreli Till 12th October 2014

Amreli_121014

Weekly Temperature Variation for Ahmedabad Till 12th October 2014

 

Ahmedabad_121014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Rajkot Till 12th October 2014

 

Rajkot_121014

 

Weekly Temperature Variation for Bhuj Till 12th October 2014

 

 Bhuj_121014

 

Forecast: 13th October to 16th October 2014

 

The Maximum Temperature is expected to be 1 to 3 Degrees above normal during the forecast period instead of 3 to 4 Degrees above normal currently prevailing, so it will be a partial relief. It would be cloudy on 13th & 14th October. There is chances of Fog on 15th morning over parts of Saurashtra & Gujarat.

 

તારીખ ૧૩ થી ૧૬ ઓક્ટોબર:

સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ અને ગુજરાત:

મહત્તમ તાપમાન હાલ સામાન્ય થી ૩ થી ૪ ડીગ્રી C ઊંચું છે તે આગાહી સમય દરમ્યાન ૧ થી ૩ ડીગ્રી C ઊંચું રહેશે એટલે થોડીક રાહત રહેશે. ૧૩ તેમજ ૧૪ તારીખે વાદળો રહેશે. તારીખ ૧૫ ના સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને ગુજરાત ના અમૂક ભાગ માં ઝાકળ ની શક્યતા છે.

 

forecast_131014

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” Over Bay Of Bengal 100 Kms. To Landfall Vicinity Visakhapatnam

Posted  on 12th October 2014 @ 8.00 am.

JTWC has isssued Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 17 @ 0300 UTC on 12-10-2014 for conditions at 0000 UTC of 12-10-2014. System 03B.Hudhud had 110 knots wind speed with 941 mb. Central Pressure located at Lat. 17.2°N & Long. 84.2°E over the West Central Bay of Bengal. System has Tracked at 7 knots during the last six hours.

1 knot wind speed  = 1.852 Kms./Hour wind speed.

System was 100 kms. Southeast from Visakhapatnam  @ 0200 UTC (at 7.30 am. IST ) on 12th October 2014.

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 03B.HUDHUD Warning No. 17

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track

io0314_17

Please read the IMD National Bulletin & RSMC Bulletin first.

IMD National Bulletin available here

RSMC Bulletin available here

 

From IMD Bulletin issued at 0500 IST today

Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha

(i) Heavy rainfall warning: Under the influence of the system, rainfall at most places with heavy (6.5–12.4 cm) to very heavy falls (12.5–24.4 cm) at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 24.5 cm) would occur over west & east Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram & Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri, Kalahandi,
Phulbani districts of south Odisha during next 48 hrs. Rainfall would occur at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Krishna, Guntur & Prakasham districts of Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Odisha during the same period.
(ii) Wind warning: Wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph would prevail along & off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts during next 06 hours. The wind speed would gradually increase to 170-180 kmph gusting to 195 kmph around the time of landfall along & off north Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts) and 80-90 kmph along and off adjoining districts of Andhra Pradesh (West Godavari & Krishna districts) and south Odisha (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts).
(iii) Sea condition along and off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts: Sea condition would be rough to very rough during next few hours. It would gradually become phenomenal from today, the 12th morning onwards along & off north Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough to high along & off south Odisha and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours.
(iv) Storm surge warning: Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
(v) Damage expected:
A) North Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts): Under the influence of system, extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Damage to agricultural crops.
B) West Godavari & Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts): Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines. Uprooting of small trees. Damage to agricultural crops.
(vi) Action suggested:
A) North Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts): Total suspension of fishing operations in area of influence of cyclone. Mobilise extensive evacuation from coastal areas. Diversion or suspension of aviation, navigation, rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain at safe places around landfall period.
B) West Godavari & Krishna districts of Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts (Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts): Total suspension of fishing operations. People in affected areas to remain at safe places. Post landfall outlook: Even after landfall the system would maintain the intensity of very severe cyclonic storm for 6 hours and gradually weaken into a cyclonic storm in subsequent 6 hours while moving northwestwards across south interior Odisha and Chattisgarh. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places would occur over south Chattisgarh, adjoining Telangana and south Odisha and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Chattisgarh and north Odisha. Gale wind speed reaching 100-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph would also prevail for 6 hours after landfall and 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph for subsequent 6 hours over East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam districts of north Andhra Pradesh and Ganjam, Gajapati, Koraput and Malkangiri districts of Odisha during the same period. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would also prevail for next 12 hours after landfall over south Chattisgarh and adjoining districts of north Telangana and south Odisha.

 

 NRL IR Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0200 UTC (7.30 am. IST )

03BHUDHUD.110kts-941mb-172N-842E.100pc_ir

 

 NRL Water Vapor Satellite Image of  TC 03B.HUDHUD

( Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” )

on 12th October 2014 @ 0200 UTC (7.30 am. IST )

03BHUDHUD.110kts-941mb-172N-842E.100pc_vapor

Doppler Product For Visakhapatnam

ppz_vsk_0220

Forecast: 12th October to 14th October 2014

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” – TC 03B.HUDHUD :

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “HUDHUD” is expected to make landfall near Visakhapatnam over North Andhra Pradesh coast near Visakhapatnam today around 0900 UTC ( 2.30 pm.IST ).

Note: Refer/Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories