Current Weather Conditions on 8th July 5.00 pm.
In the last forecast dated 3rd July about 10 mm. to 40 mm. rainfall was Forecast for Saurashtra but did not materialize. Some places of South Gujarat received 20 mm. to 50 mm. rainfall on 3rd July being the first day of forecast period. Subsequently no meaningful rainfall has been reported.
IMD Map showing the Progress of Southwest Monsoon Till 7th July 2014
The Arabian branch of Southwest Monsoon has not moved ahead since 15th June.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 21°N / Long. 60°E, Lat.21°N / Long. 65°E, Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Aurangabad, Bhopal, Shivpuri, Alwar, Bikaner and Lat.28°N / Long. 72°E.
The low pressure area over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood has become less marked, yesterday evening. However, associated cyclonic circulation lies over northeastern parts of Uttar Pradesh and neighborhood and extends upto 1.5 kms above sea level.
The trough at mean sea level now runs along the foot hills of Himalayas.
The above clearly suggests that the Southwest Monsoon is yet active along the Foothills of the Himalayas. The 925 Mb. charts also suggests that the Easterly winds are restricted to the Himalayas only.
The offshore trough at mean sea level extends from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast.
The east-west shear zone runs roughly along Lat. 14°N and extends between 3.1 & 7.6 kms above sea level tilting southwards with height.
The above two parameters would give rainfall for Western Coast and Peninsular India.
A Low pressure area is expected to form along Odisha Coast around 11th to 13th July. Hopefully if the trough along the foothills aligns in the normal position from Northwest Rajasthan, M.P. Chhatishgarh, Odisha and BOB, Central India could get some meaningful rainfall.
Forecast: 9th July to 12th July 2014
Saurashtra: 9th July to 12th July 2014
20 % of Saurashtra area expected to receive light/medium rainfall during the forecast period and rest of Saurashtra could get scattered showers.
Kutch & North Gujarat: 9th July to 12th July 2014
Kutch & North Gujarat expected to get scattered showers during the forecast period.
South Gujarat: 9th July to 12th July 2014
South Gujarat expected to get meaningful rainfall during the forecast period.
Central Gujarat: 9th July to 12th July 2014
Scattered showers or light rainfall expected during the forecast period.
IMD GFS Rainfall Forecast Valid for oo UTC 11thJuly 2014 ( mainly 10th July)
IMD GFS Rainfall Forecast Valid for oo UTC 12th July 2014 ( mainly 11th July)
COLA/IGES Precipitation Forecast Map valid 00 UTC 11th July 2014
(mainly 10th July)
COLA/IGES Precipitation Forecast Map valid 00 UTC 12th July 2014
(mainly 11th July)
Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 8th July 2014
