Current Weather Conditions on 13th June 2014 @ 2.00 pm.

Cyclonic Storm ‘NANAUK’ has tracked Northwestwards during the night. The Cyclone has weakened since this morning and as per the Latest JTWC relocation warning, the Cyclone Center is very much to the Northeast of the Convective clouds associated with this Cyclone. In short the associated Cyclonic Circulation is now tilting Southwest with height of the System Center. Latest estimated wind speeds are 35 knots with 996 Mb. Central Pressure located at 21.3N & 64.3E about 625 Kms. West of Saurashtra Coast.

UW-CIMSS IR Image Showing the Position of Convective Clouds & System Center

Forecast: 13th to 17th June 2014

The System (Nanauk) is expected to weaken further and will track back Eastwards towards Saurashtra/Kutch area as a Low Pressure/Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation during the forecast period. However, Please Refer/Rely on the IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories. IMD/RSMC is the Official Agency monitoring the North Indian Ocean Cyclonic Systems.

Monsoon has not Advanced any further today. Scattered showers/light rain expected over Saurastra and South Gujarat on many days during the forecast period as per-monsoon rain.

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) Warning #14A

Issued on 13th June 2014 @ 0900Z

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) Warning #14A Map

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 02A (NANAUK) Warning No. 14A Relocated
on 13th June 2014 @ 0900Z:

 

WTIO31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK) WARNING NR 014A RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 64.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 64.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 21.8N 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 22.2N 64.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NANAUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CLEARLY SHOWS THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BY OVER
200 NM AND HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS THE CDO
FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND DEEP AS STRONG OUTFLOW - GENERATED BY
THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET WINDS - PROVIDE EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (40-50
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND DRIFT POLEWARD WITH THE
850 MB FLOW AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, TYPICAL
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTICES, HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD, LENDING
LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
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Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 13th June 2014