2016/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event As Per NOAA Criteria – BOM Australia Says El Niño–Southern Oscillation Remains Neutral

ENSO Status on 6th February 2017

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Full fledged La Nina event has been confirmed at the end of January 2017 relying on the official NOAA definition for La Nina, because there are now five 3-monthly seasons JAS 2016 at -0.6ºC, ASO 2016 at -0.7ºC, SON 2016 at -0.8ºC, OND 2016 at -0.8ºC & NDJ 2017 at -0.7ºC having La Nina threshold. There is a variation of ONI index by 0.1 C in one instance as reported by CPC at the source cited.

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Confirming La Nina Event at end of January 2017

ONI_NDJ_2017

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC


2015   1   27.22   26.61    0.61
2015   2   27.25   26.80    0.45
2015   3   27.79   27.32    0.47
2015   4   28.59   27.86    0.73
2015   5   28.83   27.98    0.85
2015   6   28.70   27.76    0.94
2015   7   28.50   27.37    1.13
2015   8   28.47   27.02    1.45
2015   9   28.62   26.94    1.68
2015  10   28.86   26.91    1.95
2015  11   29.14   26.88    2.25
2015  12   29.04   26.80    2.24
2016   1   28.94   26.61    2.33
2016   2   28.89   26.80    2.09
2016   3   28.87   27.32    1.55
2016   4   28.97   27.86    1.11
2016   5   28.60   27.98    0.62
2016   6   27.82   27.76    0.06
2016   7   26.99   27.37   -0.38
2016   8   26.39   27.02   -0.63
2016   9   26.22   26.94   -0.72
2016  10   26.06   26.91   -0.84
2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93
2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72
2017   1   26.07   26.61   -0.55

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Southern Oscillation Index

As per BOM, Australia:

The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 6th February 2017 is +0.2 within the neutral ENSO range. Currently there is a disconnect between SST anomaly and SOI.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

 soi30_02January_2017

SOI Monthly graph up to January 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

SOI_JAN_2017

SOI was -0.31 at the end of January 2017 and -0.57 on 6th February 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 6th February 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory La Niña conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central Pacific Ocean. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017. *
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking  here

As per BOM -Australia 31st January 2017

El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016

Click here for Update “Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016”

Click here for Update “Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016”

Click here for Update “Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016”

Click here for Update “NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events”

Click here for Update “Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June  2105”

Click here for Update “El Nino Update – 5th May 2015”

Click here for Update “Weak El Nino Develops March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 7th February 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th January 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

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Dilip
Dilip
13/02/2017 9:28 pm

Wah good update…

CA. JITEN R THAKAR
CA. JITEN R THAKAR
11/02/2017 11:39 am

Thanks for information Sir.

Jeram dhanani (ઈડર )
Jeram dhanani (ઈડર )
10/02/2017 6:37 pm

જય શ્રી કૃષ્ણ
અશોક ભાઈ 15 તારીખ પછી ઠંડી ની શક્ય તા ખરી જાણવા નુ કારણ મારે
15 તારીખે G.O.T ઉગાડી દેવી છે તેટલા માટે puchiyu સ્થળ..ઈડર.

ramji bhai kachchhi at.sanathli di rajkot
ramji bhai kachchhi at.sanathli di rajkot
09/02/2017 8:07 pm

15 तारीख आस पास टेम्प्रेचर 35 डिग्री ऊपर जाइ तेवु लागे छे ?

Ahir Devshi
Ahir Devshi
08/02/2017 4:49 pm

ગુજરાતી મા કઈ દયો ને આમા મગજ કામ ના કરે

ashik khunt
ashik khunt
07/02/2017 11:47 pm

Ashok bhai ama mane kain khabar nathi padti, pan andaje avtu vars kevu rahese.

Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
06/02/2017 11:46 pm

NOAA karta BOM model ni vishvasniyta vadhu yogya lage chhe.

Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
06/02/2017 11:41 pm

Sir, update parthi evu kahi shakay ke next monsoon ma La Nina ni shakyata khub ochhi.ENSO neutral rahe toye saru.
Sir,IOD june-September 2017 ma thodo positive level par aave tevi shakyata chhe.IOD neutral level par rehshe e pakku.(source:bom Australia)..
Rply pls

Vipul
Vipul
06/02/2017 11:34 pm

Sir
Aa condition monsoon sudhi rahese??