El Nino Status on 6th January 2015
Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has completed without a full fledged El Nino. Only two consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons SON and OND have had ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold till end of 2014. SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
Lots of thanks for giving brief information about El Nino. As SON and OND seems positive we are awaiting NDJ. The word used in above “equal to or above ” is very significant. I understand that El Nino’s trend is positive., waiting for future three months trend. Right ?
As per latest details the Nino 3-4 area SST trend will is down in Jaaurary first week.