El Nino Status – 6th March 2015

El Nino Status on 6th March 2015

Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has completed without a full fledged El Nino. Only two consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons SON and OND have had ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold till end of 2014. SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC

At the end of January 2015 we had one more overlapping 3-month season NDJ with ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold. NDJ 2015 ONI=0.7ºC. The recent 3- month season the ONI index for DJF =0.6ºC. This makes total of four consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons SON 2014, OND 2014,  NDJ 2015 & DJF 2015 with ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold till end of February 2015. SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC, NDJ 2015 ONI=0.7ºC and DJF 2015 ONI=0.6ºC.

CPC has issued an El Nino Advisory on 5th March 2015.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

The atmospheric features does not justify the declaration of El nino because SOI was +0.8 as per BOM.

The fact is that as per NOAA Officially El Nino is declared as per conditions laid down below:

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

ONI_Index_DJF_2015

Southern Oscillation Index

 

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has moved to neutral zone from negative zone during the last week of February 2015. The latest 30-day SOI value from BOM-Australian Government for period ending 1st March is +0.8 which denotes neutral zone.

soi30_01032015

SOI Monthly graph till March 2015 – The Long Paddock – Queensland Government

 

2015_Feb_SOI

 

 

Outlook:

If Nino 3-4 SST for March 2015 manages to stay reasonable positive, then the next 3 monthly seasonal period JFM will also fulfill the ONI of +0.5ºC for declaring a full fledged El Nino. However, if JFM ONI does not make it to +0.5ºC or more there would be a washout for the currently developing El Nino.

One more interesting record would be that if indeed a full fledged El Nino develops within next one month, this El Nino would be the only El nino to have been declared at the end of March from 1950 on wards.

12 Replies to “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

  1. Sir,
    NOAA will give update on El Nino on 9th April. But what I want to know is what effect of it will be on Gujarat-west India ? Kindly explain this point in your update, as we have confident on your words. I know you are giving update of only 5 days.Thanks.

  2. Sir,
    I would like to know about IOD (+) and (-) effect on Indian Monsoon. So please explain about IOD impact.

  3. Sir,
    Yes, Looking to the above DJF 2015, will give boost to declare full fledged El Nino. In support to this statement Some Weather Annalist forecast El Nino as weak i.e. Likely “El Nino type effect “. I got to known, that it will effect South East Asia. But to my impression it will not effect our Gujarat. Let us wait and see SOI Phase of JFM 2015. Am I Right ?

    1. We have to wait one more month to confirm a full fledged El nino. However, NOAA-CPC has already declared an El Nino. I do’t agree to the declaration but they are the Authority. Other important thing is that the Nino 1-2 SST is negative (cool). During El nino the Equatorial East Pacific Ocean should be anomalously warm, but in current case it is cool.

      Wait and watch. Even if there is El Nino it will not affect India in any significant way.

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