El Nino Status on 7th February 2015
Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has completed without a full fledged El Nino. Only two consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons SON and OND have had ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold till end of 2014. SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC
At the end of January 2015 we have one more overlapping 3-month season NDJ with ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold. NDJ 2015 ONI=0.7ºC. This makes total of three consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons SON, OND & NDJ with ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold till end of January 2015. SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC and NDJ 2015 ONI=0.7ºC.
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
Southern Oscillation Index