El Nino Status 6th November 2014

El Nino Status on 6th November 2014

Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. Nothing has materialized as yet and we have completed 10 months of 2014 with no month having ONI index equaling or exceeding +0.5.

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

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5 Replies to “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

  1. Dear Ashok Sir,

    My name is Vishal Chavda and i stay at University road, Rajkot. By profession, i am a farmer and i have just started cultivating medicinal plants on approx. 200 acres.

    I follow you on your website and i also get your regular updates from Akila, newspaper.

    Sir, your forcasts has been very useful, many of the times, for our agriculture related matters.

    I request your appointment, to meet you and to discuss few of the weather related inputs. Anytime, anyday, at your convenience.

    Thanking you,

    Vishal Chavda
    +91 70432 55010

  2. Hi Sir,

    I am not getting this line – these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

    5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons – What this means actually?

    Thanks

    1. Five consecutive overlapping 3-month period means that the ONI Index should be +0.5 or higher for five 3-monthly seasons e.g. Say if we start from next 3 month season it would be
      SON 2014, OND 2014, NDJ 2014/2015, DJF 2014/2015, JFM 2015

      each seasonal ONI is calculated by average of the NINO 3-4 SST anomaly for the seasonal three months depicted. Since NINO 3-4 SST anomaly for November will be available at end of November, so ONI index for SON will be calculated at November end.

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