Day: November 10, 2013

Now IMD Does Not Expect Arabian Sea Deep Depression To Strengthen Further

Posted on

Current Weather Conditions on 10th November 2013 @ 10.00 am.

The Deep Depression over Southwest Arabian Sea moved westwards and lay centered at 0000 UTC on 10th November 2013 near Lat. 8.0 N. and Long. 51.0 E., about 350 Kms. South of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 590 Km.s South Southwest of Socotra Island. The System has tracked slowly at a speed of 7 Kms. per hour during the past 12 hours and is expected to continue to track slowly West Northwestwards and cross Somalia Coast around lat. 8.20N around 2100 UTC today.

Observed & Forecast Track of ARB01

on 10th November 2013 0000 UTC ( 0.530 Am. IST)

 

ARB01_101113

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 03A (THREE ) Warning No.6 on 10th November 2013 0300z io0313_101113_06

 

From: UW-CIMSS

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis 
                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.5                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  10 NOV 2013    Time :   040000 UTC
      Lat :    8:00:21 N     Lon :   51:26:28 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.5 / 996.2mb/ 55.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.5     3.7     3.7

 Center Temp : -78.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

UW-CIMSS IR Satellite Image on 10th November 2013 @ 0330 UTC ( 9.00 am. IST)

03A_UW_CIMSS_101113

Forecast:

The System is tracking towards Somalia and away from India so this System will not affect India.  Yesrday, IMD expected the the Deep Depression to strengthen further to a Cyclonic Storm, however, now as per latest Bulletin they do not expect the System to strengthen further to a Cyclonic Storm.  Currently as per UW-CIMSS the wind speed is 55 knots( 1 minute average wind speed basis). As per JTWC wind speed is 40 knots ( 1 minute average wind speed basis) while as per IMD the wind speed is 30 knots ( 3 minute average wind speed basis). RSMC/IMD is the official agency monitoring the North Indian Cyclones and so their word if final for this System.

Caution: Refer/Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories.