Deep Depression Over Southwest Arabian Sea To Strengthen To Cyclonic Storm “HELEN”

Current Weather Conditions on 9th November 2013 @ 12.00 pm.

In early November, a Low Pressure area formed over the Arabian Sea. It slowly moved Westwards and strengthened to a Well marked Low Pressure and then further consolidated into a Depression on November 8. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) the same day, reporting that the Depression was moving into an area favorable for further intensification. Now, as per JTWC the System is monitored as 03A.Three with 35 knots winds ( based on 1 minute Average.

JTWC Tropical Cyclone 03A (THREE) Warning No.2 on 9th November 2013 0300z

 

io0313_091113_02

As per IMD this System over Southwest Arabian Sea has moved Westwards, intensified into a Deep Depression in the early morning and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 09th November 2013 near latitude 8.00N and longitude 52.50E, about 390 km South-Southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 520 km South-Southwest of Socotra Island. The system would intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hrs. It would move nearly Westwards and cross Somalia coast between latitude 7.50 0 N and 8.50N by 10th November evening/night.

Observed & Forecast Track of ARB01

on 9th November 2013 0000 UTC ( 0.530 Am. IST)

 

tcac_091113_imd

From: UW-CIMSS

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.5                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  09 NOV 2013    Time :   060000 UTC
      Lat :    7:57:11 N     Lon :   52:21:57 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.3 / 999.7mb/ 51.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.2     3.1     3.0

 Center Temp : -41.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -56.1C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

UW-CIMSS IR Satellite Image on 9th November 2013 @ 0530 UTC ( 11.00 am. IST)

03A_091113_0530zForecast:

The System is tracking towards Somalia and away from India so this System will not affect India.  As per IMD the Deep Depression will strengthen further to a Cyclonic Storm. As per the list of North Indian Cyclones the next in line is “HELEN”, so if & when it strengthens to a Cyclonic Storm as per IMD benchmark it will be named “HELEN”.

Caution: Refer/Rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories.