Farmers and people of Saurashtra are anxiously waiting for meaningful rainfall over Saurashtra. There has been just scattered showers or light rain during the past five days and that also distributed unevenly over some pockets of Saurashtra. The sky is mostly cloudy with periods of sunshine and weather is some times windy.
The Monsoon Index shows that the Monsoon will oscillate between weak and stronger phase wildly and abruptly during the next two weeks as can be seen from the Monsoon Index graph below.
The NCEP/GFS Bias-Corrected Forecasts shows that Saurashtra could get 2.5 Cms. to 5 Cms. of rainfall during the seven days 15th July to 21st July 2012 both days inclusive. Hope this forecast materializes.
Scenario for India:
The Southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over SubHimalayan
West Bengal & Sikkim, Rayalaseema and Tamilnadu & Pondicherry and active over Bihar, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and Telangana.
The axis of monsoon trough runs north of its normal position.
Forecast:
Northeastern states & Sikkim:
Since the axis of Monsoon is currently along the Himalayas and Northeastern States, very heavy rainfall is forecast for Assam Meghalaya and Sikkim up to 18th July.
Central India:
A Mid upper Air Cyclonic Circulation is expected to form near Chhatishgarh within 24 hours. Under the influence of this UAC, heavy rainfall is forecast for Vidarbha & vicinity, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Chhatishgarh up to 18th July.
Konkan:
UAC just off Konkan is expected to form on 17th and remain for one more days. Heavy rain expected for Konkan on 17th and 18th.
South Gujarat:
Scattred light to medium rainfall expected during the forecast period. Better chances of rain on 18th & 19th July.
Saurashtra: 16th to 20th July 2012
Sky expected to be cloudy with times of sunshine. Scattered showers will continue on various days with cumulative total of 1 Cm. to 2 Cms. for Most parts of Saurashtra during the forecast period. Some limited parts of Saurashtra can get 2 Cm. to 4 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period of which major amount on 17th and 18th July.
Weather Forecast In Akila Daily dated 16th July 2012 @ 11.00 am.
