Evening Wind Direction On HOLI Day Not A Reliable Indicator For Monsoon Forecast

Current Weather Conditions on 15th March 2014 @ 11.00 am.

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has increased by 3 to 4 C during the last two days and are 1 to 2 C. above normal. The Maximum at Rajkot yesterday was 37.3 C while at Bhuj it was 37.6 C and at Ahmedabad it was 35.8 C. The Minimum at Rajkot was 21.0 C. which is about 3 C above normal while at Ahmedabad it was 19.6 C about 1 C above normal and in Bhuj it was 20.1 C being about 3 C above normal. The Humidity has decreased considerably over most parts of Gujarat.

Monsoon Forecast by Traditional method uses the Wind Direction in evening on ‘HOLI’ day. However, since ‘HOLI’ is based on Lunar Month the ‘HOLI’ date varies each year and the variation is of about 10  to 20 days early or late on different years. Observation of the Calender of last 115 years has been done and it has been observed that earliest ‘HOLI’ day was on 26th February 1945 while delayed ‘HOLI’ day was recently on 28th March 2002. If we want to use wind as an Empirical parameter for Monsoon forecast we should fix a date which represents long period average of past ‘HOLI’ dates. This date comes to 13th March if we consider ‘HOLI’ date of last 115 years. I would propose that Wind Direction method used in the Traditional Method of Forecasting Monsoon should be based on Wind Directions on 13th March instead of ‘HOLI’ day.

Chart for Monsoon Forecast by Traditional Method based on Wind direction on ‘HOLI’ Day. Note the orientation of the directions – East is on Top so be careful !

Holi_130314

Wind Direction Forecast for 16th March 2014 ( ‘HOLI’ day) :

The Wind direction on 16th March being the ‘HOLI’ day for various centers is given for 6.00 pm and 9.00 pm.

Veraval & Junagadh the wind will blow from the West at 6.00 pm. & from West Northwest at 9.00 pm.

Rajkot, Jamnagar & Surendranagar the wind will blow from the West Northwest at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.

Bhuj & Vadodara the wind will blow mainly from the Westerly direction at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.

Ahmedabad the wind direction could vary. Expect wind to blow from the West Southwest at 6.00 pm. & from West at 9.00 pm.

Bhavnagar the wind direction could be erratic so less confidence. Expect wind to blow from the East at 6.00 pm. & from South at 9.00 pm.

 

Forecast: 15th to 18th March 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch:

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to trend upwards on 15th & 16th March when Maximum and Minimum Temperature will increase and remain high over most of the places. There will be a marginal relief in Maximum Temperature on 17th March and some relief on 18th March at most places of the forecast areas. The Maximum Temperature in some places of Saurashtra & Gujarat is expected to reach 38 to 39 C. by 16th March.

North India:

Rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining areas with Snowfall over few hilly regions during the forecast period.

Rest of India:

The Maximum Temperature is expected to rise further and cross 40 C. over few of the major Centers of the States mentioned below during the forecast period. Some of the Hot Spot areas could be North Andhra, South Chhatishgarh, adjoing Vidarbha, South Gujarat and adjoining Maharashtra.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 15th march 2013

akila_150314_topakila_150314_bottomસુધારો:
વહેલા માં વહેલી ‘હોળી’ ૨૬ ફેબ્રુઆરી ૧૯૪૫ માં હતી.

સૌથી વધુ પવનની અચોક્કસતા ભાવનગરમાં જોવા મળશે. ૬ વાગ્યે પૂર્વ દિશામાંથી પશ્ચિમ દિશા તરફ જશે. રાત્રીના ૯ વાગ્યે દક્ષિણ દિશામાંથી ઉતર દિશા તરફ જશે.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
2 Add your comment here
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ashish Marvaniya
Ashish Marvaniya
24/03/2014 6:59 pm

નમસ્કાર અશોક ભાઈ,
અશોક ભાઈ મારે એ જાણવું છે કે સું ગુજરાત ઉપર આવતા વર્ષે
અલ્નીનો નો ખતરો છે એ અંગે તમારું સું કેહવું છે.
ધન્યવાદ.