Current Weather Conditions on 15th March 2014 @ 11.00 am.
The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has increased by 3 to 4 C during the last two days and are 1 to 2 C. above normal. The Maximum at Rajkot yesterday was 37.3 C while at Bhuj it was 37.6 C and at Ahmedabad it was 35.8 C. The Minimum at Rajkot was 21.0 C. which is about 3 C above normal while at Ahmedabad it was 19.6 C about 1 C above normal and in Bhuj it was 20.1 C being about 3 C above normal. The Humidity has decreased considerably over most parts of Gujarat.
Monsoon Forecast by Traditional method uses the Wind Direction in evening on ‘HOLI’ day. However, since ‘HOLI’ is based on Lunar Month the ‘HOLI’ date varies each year and the variation is of about 10 to 20 days early or late on different years. Observation of the Calender of last 115 years has been done and it has been observed that earliest ‘HOLI’ day was on 26th February 1945 while delayed ‘HOLI’ day was recently on 28th March 2002. If we want to use wind as an Empirical parameter for Monsoon forecast we should fix a date which represents long period average of past ‘HOLI’ dates. This date comes to 13th March if we consider ‘HOLI’ date of last 115 years. I would propose that Wind Direction method used in the Traditional Method of Forecasting Monsoon should be based on Wind Directions on 13th March instead of ‘HOLI’ day.
Chart for Monsoon Forecast by Traditional Method based on Wind direction on ‘HOLI’ Day. Note the orientation of the directions – East is on Top so be careful !
Wind Direction Forecast for 16th March 2014 ( ‘HOLI’ day) :
The Wind direction on 16th March being the ‘HOLI’ day for various centers is given for 6.00 pm and 9.00 pm.
Veraval & Junagadh the wind will blow from the West at 6.00 pm. & from West Northwest at 9.00 pm.
Rajkot, Jamnagar & Surendranagar the wind will blow from the West Northwest at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.
Bhuj & Vadodara the wind will blow mainly from the Westerly direction at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.
Ahmedabad the wind direction could vary. Expect wind to blow from the West Southwest at 6.00 pm. & from West at 9.00 pm.
Bhavnagar the wind direction could be erratic so less confidence. Expect wind to blow from the East at 6.00 pm. & from South at 9.00 pm.
