Evening Wind Direction On HOLI Day Not A Reliable Indicator For Monsoon Forecast

Current Weather Conditions on 15th March 2014 @ 11.00 am.

The Maximum Temperature over most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch has increased by 3 to 4 C during the last two days and are 1 to 2 C. above normal. The Maximum at Rajkot yesterday was 37.3 C while at Bhuj it was 37.6 C and at Ahmedabad it was 35.8 C. The Minimum at Rajkot was 21.0 C. which is about 3 C above normal while at Ahmedabad it was 19.6 C about 1 C above normal and in Bhuj it was 20.1 C being about 3 C above normal. The Humidity has decreased considerably over most parts of Gujarat.

Monsoon Forecast by Traditional method uses the Wind Direction in evening on ‘HOLI’ day. However, since ‘HOLI’ is based on Lunar Month the ‘HOLI’ date varies each year and the variation is of about 10  to 20 days early or late on different years. Observation of the Calender of last 115 years has been done and it has been observed that earliest ‘HOLI’ day was on 26th February 1945 while delayed ‘HOLI’ day was recently on 28th March 2002. If we want to use wind as an Empirical parameter for Monsoon forecast we should fix a date which represents lonf period average of past ‘HOLI’ dates. This date comes to 13th March if we consider ‘HOLI’ date of last 115 years. I would propose that Wind Direction method used in the Traditional Method of Forecasting Monsoon should be based on Wind Directions on 13th March instead of ‘HOLI’ day.

Chart for Monsoon Forecast by Traditional Method based on Wind direction on ‘HOLI’ Day. Note the orientation of the directions – East is on Top so be careful !

Holi_130314

Wind Direction Forecast for 16th March 2014 ( ‘HOLI’ day) :

The Wind direction on 16th March being the ‘HOLI’ day for various centers is given for 6.00 pm and 9.00 pm.

Veraval & Junagadh the wind will blow from the West at 6.00 pm. & from West Northwest at 9.00 pm.

Rajkot, Jamnagar & Surendranagar the wind will blow from the West Northwest at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.

Bhuj & Vadodara the wind will blow mainly from the Westerly direction at 6.00 pm. as well as at 9.00 pm.

Ahmedabad the wind direction could vary. Expect wind to blow from the West Southwest at 6.00 pm. & from West at 9.00 pm.

Bhavnagar the wind direction could be erratic so less confidence. Expect wind to blow from the East at 6.00 pm. & from South at 9.00 pm.

 

Forecast: 15th to 18th March 2014

Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch:

The Maximum as well as Minimum Temperature is expected to trend upwards on 15th & 16th March when Maximum and Minimum Temperature will increase and remain high over most of the places. There will be a marginal relief in Maximum Temperature on 17th March and some relief on 18th March at most places of the forecast areas. The Maximum Temperature in some places of Saurashtra & Gujarat is expected to reach 38 to 39 C. by 16th March.

North India:

Rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining areas with Snowfall over few hilly regions during the forecast period.

Rest of India:

The Maximum Temperature is expected to risete further and cross 40 C. over few of the major Centers of the States mentioned below during the forecast period. Some of the Hot Spot areas could be North Andhra, South Chhatishgarh, adjoing Vidarbha, South Gujarat and adjoining Maharashtra.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 15th march 2013

akila_150314_topakila_150314_bottomસુધારો:
વહેલા માં વહેલી ‘હોળી’ ૨૬ ફેબ્રુઆરી ૧૯૪૫ માં હતી.

સૌથી વધુ પવનની અચોક્કસતા ભાવનગરમાં જોવા મળશે. ૬ વાગ્યે પૂર્વ દિશામાંથી પશ્ચિમ દિશા તરફ જશે. રાત્રીના ૯ વાગ્યે દક્ષિણ દિશામાંથી ઉતર દિશા તરફ જશે.

System Tracks Towards Rajasthan – Pakistan Border Area

Current Weather Conditions on 27th September 2013 @ 1.00 pm.

There has been extremely heavy rainfall over Jamnagar District, Porbandar District, Kutch & Devbhumi Dwarka District due to the effects of Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation which was located over North Saurashtra, Rann of Kutch and adjoining North Gujarat areas. The System has tracked Northwards and is expected to cross over to Southeast Pakistan near Rajasthan border area. The System is expected to track into Rajasthan within 24 hours and take a circular route passing the vicinity of Barmer, Jodhpur, and then Southeast Rajasthan during the next few days. Heavy Rainfall area for 27th would be over Jamnagar District, Devbhumi Dwarka District, Kutch, North Saurastra ( North of Rajkot) adjoining Patan and Banaskantha Districts and decrease thereafter in Saurashtra.  More than 50 % of Saurashtra will have no rain.

Note: The above is a brief analysis and current conditions. Details version are already given yesterday which stands valid as yet.

Caution: Refer/Rely up on IMD Bulletins/Advisories.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 27th September 2013

akila_270913

UAC Has Given Very Heavy Rainfall For Saurashtra & Kutch

Current Weather Conditions on 26th September 2013 @ 1.00 pm.

As had been forecast on 20th & 21 st September, South Gujarat & Central Gujarat received extremely heavy rainfall from 22nd to 24th September. Similarly, as had been forecast on 24th that the Heavy rainfall area would shift to over Saurashtra & Kutch, there has been extremely heavy rainfall over Saurashtra & Kutch from 24th-26th September. As per IMD Rajkot has received 390 mm. of rainfall for 24 hours ending at 8.30 am. of 26th September 2013.

CAUTION: Due to extremely heavy rainfall over Saurashtra, most of the rivers are flooded and water logging has also taken place at many places. Many Dams are overflowing. Keep vigil and be cautious near water bodies. Refer and rely on IMD Bulletins/Advisories only.

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extends up to 500 Mb. and was located this morning over Rann Of Kutch and adjoining areas of North Saurashtra, Patan District & Kutch. The clouding associated with this System were mainly to the South and Southwest of the Circulation Center.

Saurashtra District Average rainfall for 24 hours ending 8.30 am. of 26th September 2013

Surendranagar: 100 mm.

Rajkot: 161 mm.

Morbi: 69 mm.

Jamnagar: 116 mm.

Devbhumi Dwarka: 105 mm.

Porbandar: 64 mm.

Junagadh: 88 mm.

Gir Somnath: 96 mm.

Amreli: 121 mm.

Bhavnagar: 85 mm.

Botad: 176 mm.

IMD Weather Chart of 700 Mb. Showing UAC Valid 00 UTC 27th September 2013

24hgfs_700wind_260913IMD Weather Chart of 700 Mb. Showing UAC Valid 00 UTC 28th September 2013

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Wunderground Map Showing 925 Mb. Chart Valid 00 UTC 27th September 2013

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Wunderground Map Showing 925 Mb. Chart Valid 00 UTC 28th September 2013

WU_925_260913_280913

Forecast: 26th to 30th September 2013

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation extends up to 500 Mb. and is expected to track mainly Northwards initially and reach border areas of Pakistan & Southwest Rajasthan. Subsequently the UAC is expected to track over to Rajasthan. The track could be as strange as vicinity of Barmer then Jodhpur area by 29th September.

Saurashtra:

North & West Saurashtra expected to get Rainfall till 27th September and decrease thereafter. Rest of Saurashtra Rainfall area as well as quantum to decrease from 27th September.

Kutch:

Heavy rainfall expected over Kutch till 27th and decrease thereafter.

North Gujarat:

All areas bordering South Rajasthan will get medium rainfall for a few days.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 26th September 2013

akila_260913_1akila_260913_2

Heavy Rainfall Area To Shift Over To Saurashtra & Kutch

Current Weather Conditions on 24th September 2013 @ 10.00 am.

On 21 st  September the Low pressure area was located over Southeast Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha area and as had been forecast that it would track Westwards during the next few days, the Low Pressure area is currently located over North Gujarat and vicinity. The Upper air Cyclonic Circulation extends up to Mid-Tropospheric level. There has been extremely heavy rainfall over South Gujarat as well as Central Gujarat. North Gujarat and Saurashtra & Kutch has received fairly widespread rain for last two days.

 

IMD Weather Chart of 700 Mb. Showing UAC Valid 00 UTC 26th September 2013

48imd_700wind_240913

IMD Weather Chart of 700 Mb. Showing UAC Valid 00 UTC 27th September 2013

72imd_700wind_240913

 

Forecast: 24th to 28th September

This System is expected to track Westwards for two to three days, tracking over Saurashtra and adjoining Gujarat area and then towards Kutch and adjoining areas.

North Gujarat, South Gujarat & Central Gujarat:

Rainfall will continue on 25th and tapper off from 26th September.

Saurashtra:

Heavy Rainfall area will shift over to Saurashtra from 24th September and will continue till 26th September. Rainfall expected to tapper off from 27th September.

Kutch:

Heavy Rainfall expected till 27th/28th September. Rain will be on multiple days and quantum is expected to be exceptionally high.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 24th September 2013 @ 10.00 am.

akila_240913_1akila_240913_2

Rainfall Over South & Central Gujarat To Reach Parts Of Saurashtra

Current Weather Conditions On 20th September 2013 @ 11.00 am.

There has been mainly dry weather over Saurashtra, Kutch & Most parts of Gujarat for last three four days. Earlier Saurashtra had received scattered rainfall mainly in Junagadh, Amreli and some parts of Rajkot & Bhavnagar District.

The withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon was stand still from 9th to 19th September. Subsequently on 19th September the Southwest Monsoon had withdrawn from parts of Kutch, Western Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and parts of Haryana and parts of Himachal Pradesh.

IMD Map Showing Withdrawal Of Southwest Monsoon as of 20th September 2013

withdrawal_20092013

A Low Pressure area had developed over northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha-Gangetic West Bengal coasts two days back which subsequently crossed over Odisha and this morning lay over Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas of East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. Associated Cyclonic Circulation extends upto Mid-Tropospheric levels, tilting Southwestwards with height.

IMD Weather Chart For 700 Mb. Showing the UAC

Valid 00 UTC 23rd September 2013

72hgfs_700wind_200913 IMD Weather Chart For 700 Mb. Showing the UAC

Valid 00 UTC 24th September 2013 96hgfs_700wind_200913

Forecast: 20th September to 26th September 2013

South Gujarat & Central Gujarat:

The Low Pressure is expected to travel across Madhya Pradesh and the UAC associated with this Low pressure is tilting Southwestwards with height, so under the influence of this System, Medium to Heavy rainfall is expected over South Gujarat for period from 22nd September to 26th September and over Central Gujarat from 22nd to 24th September. South Gujarat could get 6 Cms. to 12 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period while Central Gujarat could get 4 Cms. to 8 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period.

North Gujarat:

North Gujarat will receive scattered light to medium rainfall between 22nd to 24th September.

Saurashtra:

This Low Pressure was not expected to benefit Saurashtra, however, during the last 24 hours the chances of rainfall for Saurashtra has improved. Currently all areas of Saurashtra in vicinity of South Gujarat & Central Gujarat (some areas of Bhavnagar, Amreli, Surendranagar & Junagadh Coastal regions) is expected to benefit and will get 2 Cms. to 8 Cms. of rainfall from 22nd to 26th September and rest of Saurashtra could get Scattered showers to 2 Cms.  of rainfall during this period.

Update will be given on Saturday if any changes takes place.

Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 20th September 2013 @ 11.00 am.

akila_20092013