Theoretically El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017 – ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevails With FMA 2017 ONI Index At +0.1ºC

ENSO Status on 5th May 2017

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Enso neutral conditions have prevailed after the demise of short lived La Nina having last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017.

ONI Index for DJF 2017 was -0.4ºC, JFM 2017 is -0.2ºC FMA 2017 is +0.1ºC and hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain in ENSO Neutral zone.

Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending April 2017

 ONI_FMA_2017

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust
YR   MON  Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC

2015   4   28.59   27.86    0.73
2015   5   28.83   27.98    0.85
2015   6   28.70   27.76    0.94
2015   7   28.50   27.37    1.13
2015   8   28.47   27.02    1.45
2015   9   28.62   26.94    1.68
2015  10   28.86   26.91    1.95
2015  11   29.14   26.88    2.25
2015  12   29.04   26.80    2.24
2016   1   28.95   26.61    2.33
2016   2   28.89   26.80    2.09
2016   3   28.86   27.32    1.54
2016   4   28.96   27.86    1.10
2016   5   28.59   27.98    0.60
2016   6   27.81   27.76    0.05
2016   7   26.98   27.37   -0.39
2016   8   26.39   27.02   -0.63
2016   9   26.20   26.94   -0.74
2016  10   26.04   26.91   -0.87
2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93
2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72
2017   1   26.24   26.61   -0.37
2017   2   26.63   26.80   -0.17
2017   3   27.49   27.32    0.17
2017   4   28.29   27.86    0.43

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.

Southern Oscillation Index

As per BOM, Australia:

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 24 April was −6.6 (90-day value −0.3). SOI values have generally been within the neutral range since mid-October.

The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 3rd May 2017 is -5.7 within the neutral ENSO range.

soi30_030517

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

SOI Monthly graph up to April 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

2017_SOI_April_2017

SOI was -6.31 at the end of April 2017 and -6.35 on 5th May 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.

Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP  Dated 1st May 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-average across the central Pacific. They are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017, with increasing chances for El Niño development by late summer and fall.*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking  here

As per BOM -Australia 28th March 2017


ENSO neutral, but tropical Pacific waters continue to warm – El Niño WATCH Remains:

All earlier updates are listed below:

Click here for Update “Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During The Indian Southwest Monsoon 2017”

Click here for Update “ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of February 2017”

Click here for Update “2016/17 Qualifies As A La Nina Event”

Click here for Update “Enso Neutral Conditions At End Of October 2016”

Click here for Update “Full Fledged La Nina Not Possible During 2016”

Click here for Update “Demise Of El Nino Brings ENSO Neutral Conditions At End Of July 2016”

Click here for Update “Moderate El Nino Persists Till End Of May 2016”

Click here for Update “Strong El Nino Persists Till April 2016”

Click here for Update “NOAA ERSST.v4 & ERSST.v3b & Effects On ENSO Events”

Click here for Update “Yet A Weak El Nino – 6th June  2105”

Click here for Update “El Nino Update – 5th May 2015”

Click here for Update “Weak El Nino Develops March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th March 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 7th February 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status – 6th January 2015”

Click here for Update “El Nino Status 6th November 2014”

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JAYDEEPSINH
JAYDEEPSINH
11/05/2017 12:05 pm

IOD negative rahse k positive??Final kyare khabar pdse IOD vise??

Dipak Raysoni
Dipak Raysoni
07/05/2017 7:09 pm

Sir how can I share image with you? Is it possible?

Lakhman kuchhdiya
Lakhman kuchhdiya
07/05/2017 2:28 pm

Thank you sir

Dipak Raysoni
Dipak Raysoni
07/05/2017 12:21 pm

Sir when will premonsoon activities start in Goa? Or is it already started? Can we expect premonsoon activities in may end for Gujarat I mean in last week of May?

Raju Ahir (Visavadar)
Raju Ahir (Visavadar)
07/05/2017 12:08 pm

Sir IOD vise janavo

DINESH DETROJA
DINESH DETROJA
07/05/2017 11:31 am

Very good news for Gujrat Farmer’s
Tnx sir

Dipak Raysoni
Dipak Raysoni
06/05/2017 2:09 pm

Sir aa currently je long time thi anti cyclone AB ma che te koi system banva de aevu lagtu nathi. Aetle monsoon pela je AB active revu joi ke koi sari system bani ne Gujarat ma varsad lave teva sanjog next 10 days sudhi to nathi dekhata. Local clouds may do some relief hopefully.

Rajbha vaghela
Rajbha vaghela
06/05/2017 1:38 pm

Very good news , sir ji

Thank you very much

Anil Patel
Anil Patel
06/05/2017 12:44 pm

Good news for india…. Thanks for information sir ji

Rajesh Surani
Rajesh Surani
06/05/2017 12:43 pm

Dear sir,
This year Arab sagar kai jor batavse ke last year ni jem thando rahese.?

Vipul
Vipul
06/05/2017 2:17 am

Sir
Monsoon na ek paribal upar rahat na news appya tame. Have IOD vishe shu kahevu chhe aa varsh mate?

jay makwana(gondal)
jay makwana(gondal)
05/05/2017 10:39 pm

thanks for update sir.

Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
Umesh Ribadiya@Visavadar
05/05/2017 10:18 pm

Thanks for final note. Good news