Current Weather Conditions on 20th May 2018 @ 07.00 pm. IST

 

Abstract from IMD Forecast Bulletin issued on 20th May 2018 at 1630 IST:

A Low pressure area has formed over Southeast Arabian Sea and associated an upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.6 km above mean sea level. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours and further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move west northwestwards towards south Oman north Yemen coasts during next 5 days.

Conditions are becoming favorable for advance of southwest monsoon over south Andaman Sea & neighborhood by around 23 May 2018.

As per NRL: 92A.INVEST over the South East Arabian Sea is located at 7.7°N & 64.6°E with 20 knots & 1005 mb. on 20th May 2018 @ 1200 UTC.

 

From JTWC: Reissued on 20th May 2018 @ 1300 UTC

ABIO10 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/201300Z-201800ZMAY2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.0N 65.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 64.6E, APPROXIMATELY 825 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DUQM, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING AND FLARING 
CONVECTION. A 191655Z MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD DISORGANIZED 
CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLC. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALTHOUGH ECMWF PROJECTS A LONGER 
TIMELINE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF FINAL 
WARNING FOR TC 01A.//
NNNN

હાલ ની સ્થિતિ અને અંદાજ:

દક્ષિણ પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં એક લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. જે આવતા 2 દિવસ માં ડિપ્રેસન અને ત્યાર બાદ આવતા દિવસો માં વધુ મજબૂત બનશે. હાલ ની ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક યમન/ઓમાન તરફ છે તો અમૂક મોડલ માં ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક વધુ ઉત્તર ઓમાન તરફ બતાવે છે. આવતા 24 થી 48 કલાક માં વધુ અંદાજ આવશે.

Note: There is a differing outcome for the System track between most global models with ECMWF outcome as noted by JTWC. Clarity in forecast outcome is expected in 24 to 48 hours.

NRL IR Satellite Image on 20th May 2018 @ 1200 UTC ( 05.30 pm. IST)

 

NRL Visible Satellite Image on 20th May 2018 @ 1200 UTC ( 05.30 pm. IST)