The Weather over Saurashtra has been humid with near normal Temperature.
The Monsoon has reached Konkan And Goa on 7th June and has not advanced any further.
Monsoon Forecast: Monsoon is not expected advance on the West Coast atleast till 17th June 2009.
Saurashtra Forecast : The Barometer reading has again increased to 1002-1005 mb. from their low of 997-1001 mb on 6th and 7th June 2009.
Barometer reading for Rajkot should go below 1000 mb. and remain as such before the Monsoon reaches Saurashtra.
The weekly Barometer graph from RingRoad Weather Station Rajkot is displayed hereunder:
IMD Monsoon Onset Advancement Report dated 10th June 2009
Advance of Southwest Monsoon 2009
Onset and advance of monsoon
Southwest monsoon set in over Andaman Sea around its normal date, on 20th May. However, it set in over Kerala on 23rd May, about one week earlier than the normal date (1st June). IMD on 14th May issued forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days.
Subsequent to onset of monsoon over Kerala, a cyclonic storm named AILA formed in the Bay of Bengal. It resulted in advance of monsoon over northeastern states and West Bengal and Sikkim. Thereafter, no fresh surge developed in the Bay of Bengal which could bring the monsoon into the eastern parts of the country. After a hiatus of about a week, monsoon further advanced along the west coast and reached upto Ratnagiri on 7th June. Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan & Goa have received widespread rains accompanied with very heavy falls during 5th to 7th June. However, there has not been further advance of monsoon after 7th June and its northern limit continue to pass through Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 70.0° E, Ratanagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.
The advance of southwest monsoon into different parts of the country is generally not a systematic and regular feature. It is always accompanied with surges in the strength of southwesterly winds over the north Indian Ocean. In association with each surge, the rainfall activity gets revived and the rain belt shifts north and northwest. After each wet spell, normally there comes a hiatus of about 6 to 8 days in which the rainfall activity gets subdued, and northward advance of monsoon is also halted.
Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM)
· The northern limit of monsoon passes through Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat. 17.0° N/ Long. 70.0° E, Ratanagiri, Gadag, Anantapur, Ongole, Kalingapattinam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok on 7th June 2009.
Current Scenario
As per the latest meteorological conditions and the forecast of several Numerical Weather Predication Models, southwest monsoon activity is not likely to revive during next one week. Consequently, the advance of monsoon over east, north peninsular and adjoining central India will be delayed. However, occasional thunderstorm activity will continue. Under this scenario, maximum temperatures exceeding 40ºc is likely over central, east and northwest India even with possibility of heat wave conditions over isolated pockets.