ENSO Status on 4th August 2017
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v4). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Huang et al., 2015, J. Climate, vol. 28, 911-930.
CPC uses current Climatology based on 1986-2015 which has been changed late last year from base years 1981-2010. Explanation about Climatology base years change is given here.
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Short lived La Nina ended with last 3-monthly season as NDJ 2017. Subsequently, Enso neutral conditions have prevailed thereafter.
ONI Index for DJF 2017 was -0.4ºC, JFM 2017 was -0.2ºC, FMA 2017 was +0.1ºC, MAM was +0.4ºC, AMJ was +0.4ºC and now the last ONI Index MJJ is +0.3ºC, hence the Nino 3.4 Region of Pacific Ocean continues to remain in ENSO Neutral zone.
Latest Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) Graph Showing Enso Neutral Event For Last Three 3- Monthly Seasons Ending July 2017
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly for last two years. Climate Base 1986-2015.
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust YR MON Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC 2015 7 28.50 27.37 1.13 2015 8 28.47 27.02 1.45 2015 9 28.62 26.94 1.68 2015 10 28.86 26.91 1.95 2015 11 29.14 26.88 2.25 2015 12 29.04 26.80 2.24 2016 1 28.95 26.61 2.33 2016 2 28.89 26.80 2.09 2016 3 28.86 27.32 1.54 2016 4 28.96 27.86 1.10 2016 5 28.59 27.98 0.60 2016 6 27.81 27.76 0.05 2016 7 26.98 27.37 -0.39 2016 8 26.39 27.02 -0.63 2016 9 26.20 26.94 -0.74 2016 10 26.04 26.91 -0.87 2016 11 25.96 26.88 -0.93 2016 12 26.08 26.80 -0.72 2017 1 26.24 26.61 -0.37 2017 2 26.63 26.80 -0.17 2017 3 27.49 27.32 0.17 2017 4 28.30 27.86 0.44 2017 5 28.54 27.98 0.56 2017 6 27.97 27.76 0.21 2017 7 27.40 27.37 0.03
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
Southern Oscillation Index
As per BOM, Australia:
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 30 July was +8.1 (90-day value −0.4). SOI values have generally been within the neutral range since mid-October. However, recently they have shot up and flirting the positive zone.
The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on 31st July 2017 is +8.7 which is flirting the positive zone.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
SOI Monthly graph up to July 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
30 Days average SOI was +6.51 at the end of July 2017 and +8.01 on 2nd August 2017 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Dated 31st July 2017
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-Neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-Neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.*
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here
As per BOM -Australia 1st August 2017
ENSO neutral conditions are likely to persist – ENSO Outlook Inactive:
All eight of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until at least the end of 2017
Ashok Patel’s Final Note: Full Fledged El Nino Not Possible During 2017 Using NOAA Criteria.
The current SST of Nino 3.4 region is below +0.5°C at +0.03°C and also the last ONI Index available is MJJ 2017 at +0.3°C which is yet in the Enso Neutral zone. The SST for August is not expected to increase by 1.0°C from the current +0.03°C, hence the ONI Index for JJA 2017 will be < 0.5°C. Even if the ONI index of next Four 3-monthly seasons namely JAS 2017, ASO 2017, SON 2017 & OND 2017 manages to remain equal to or above 0.5°C, yet it will not qualify for a Full fledged El Nino as per NOAA criteria during 2017, since the fifth 3-monthly season required for qualification of El Nino is NDJ 2018 which would be end of 2018 January.
અશોક પટેલ ની નોંધ :
ઓસ્ટ્રેલિયા ની BOM સંસ્થા મુજબ 2017 માં એલ નિનો થવા ની શક્યતા નથી. વર્ષ 2017 દરમિયાન સૈદ્ધાંતિક રીતે પણ હવે વિધિવત એલ નિનો (NOAA, U.S. ના માપ દંડ મુજબ ) શક્ય નથી કારણ કે વિધિવત એલ નિનો ડિક્લેર કરવા માટે ના સળંગ 5 ત્રિમાસિક સીઝન એલ નિનો માપ દંડ પ્રમાણે હોવા જોઈએ. જે થાય તે પહેલા તો વર્ષ 2017 પૂરું થઇ ગયું હશે.
Sir Ji,
Varsad mate no next round mate have
Satam-atham Na Thepla khai lai pachhi j avse ….. wait vadhare karvo padse…
Sir saurastra na khedutone Sara vrsad na samachar kyare apo chho apna jwabni rah chhe bdha
Ram ram karo.
Sir have koi navi sistem ubhi Thai 6 ? hal ma
Ek-be divas ma Mandani varsad thaey evu vatavaran laage chhe.
સાહેબ,
ગુજરાત વેધરમાં માહીતિ ગુજરાતીમાં વિગતે આપશો તો ખેડુતો ને સરળ રહેશે, આભાર.
Je lagu padtu hoy te gujarati ma aapu chhu.
Hi.
Sir. Have varsad no next period Ahmedabad ma kyare avase.
Pls.sir reply.
Haal kai nathi.
Sir to 10 tarikh sudhi varsad ni shakyata nay ke ? Aagotaru aendhan aapo ne to khabar pade ke magafadi pa Pani pavu padse ke nay…pliz ans….gambhirsinh maliya hatina…
Lagbhag aaje update thashe… pan paani ni raah na jovay.
પાણી જોઈતું હોય તો આપો હમણાં વરસાદ ની કોઈ શક્યતા નથી..
Sir tame Lamba gada ni aagahi nathi aapata pan Tamara 1 Anubhav ne Karane puchhu sir varsad no bijo raund andaje Kyre aave tevu tame lage.chhe. Tamara javab ni ghani badhi Aasha chhe sir pls.repy
Haal Zaapta sivay khaskai chhe nahi.
Maney khyaal hoy toe tamone kaheva ma shu vandho hoy !
Sir.nmste. isan ni vijdi tae tyare 5/6 kalakma varsad ave te me 2/3 var joyelu6 to te kya paribal na hisabe thatu hase
Tamaru Isan hoy te bija center nu Nairutya hoy !
dakhalo : Rajkot thi Kuvadava ma vachhe Maliyasan gaam avey chhe. Jo Maliyasan ma vijadi thati hoy to te Rajkot ni Isan baju ganay. Te vijadi Kuvadva ma pan dekhashe je Nairutya baju thati dekhashe… toe shu samajvu ?
Sir.gujrati.athva.hindi.bhasa.ma.aave.aevi.website.monsoon.sistam.vise.ni.jankari.mate.jevu.je.lo.uca.dipresan.dipdipresan.wmlp.karnke.saurastra.ma.sistam.sivay.hava.rokva.valu.biju.kai.nathi.etle.jankari.melvva.utchuk.chhu.
Tamone ghani var yaadi aapi chhe ke comment na darek shabd ni pachhad ‘.’ lakho chho.
Hu vanchavani mehnathi nathi karto.
Bhavishya ma cmment prasiddh nahi thaay.
Mitro varsad mate na pribalo hamna chhe j nahi to saheb ne khota prshno puchhva no koi matlab nahi ne saheb kahe pan chhe ke hal ma chhuta chhvaya zapta sivay kai nahi to please aava prshno na karo varsad aavva no hase to saheb tarat j apdet muki de … to shanti rakho raghvaya thvathi varsad na aave. …
Plese sir reply now
Mr.ashok sir
I am from dev bhumi dwarka
Sir EL neo che su
Ahi Menu ma samjavel chhe.
Sr.nmste mitro medhraja “13august thi “17august Saurastr pr besumar vrsse.Mara abhiyash mujb.
Thanks
sir, as per skymet Uac which is now in BOB it may be intensified in Low pressure and it will move in west direction..it’s possible track is south-East Rajsthan via CG-MP. So, Is there be any possibility of gud rains in east
Saurashtra during next monday-tuesday?? However, skymet says that it is very fast moving system and any part will not get very heavy spells by this system.
Good news Sir Thanks very much
Handhay sara vana chhe,etle Saurashtra/Gujarat ma hajuye saro varsad padshe.haju toe monsoon adadhe palle pahochyu chhe.
Sir have kyare Sara varsad no round aavse te janav va vinanti
Have pasi aught ma varsad thase jara batavso
Hello there,
This is Anil Odedara from village bakharla, porbandar district.
We did have some rain back in the days but not as much, is there any chance of light or medium rain in our area? Particularly cost between Jamnagar and porbandar sir??
Thanking you for providing free timely weather updates
Nothing significant next 5 days.
Sir mara abhyaash pramane August naa chhella 10 divas maa aapdo vaaro aavse aevu laage chhe .
Aa year ae Tyfoon North baaju bani rahyaa chhe jethi Aapda BoB maathi Bhej khechay rahyo chhe ane Aana lide Pavano godhvata nathi jethi north baaju and East India baju saro varsad padi rahyo chhe .
Aa Normal chhe Pan aa vakhate thodo vadhu samay laagse Normal thava maate . .
Kyare varsad no 2jo ravund salu thase
mitro Hamna koi moto varsad Nathi
Gujrat upar je uAc batave che tena karne sutasavaya japta Aane kyak hadvo varsad padche…..
Aavta divcho ma baki kay bhare varsad jevu nathi
Sir Varsad nu anuman su che
Sir gujrat ma have Varsad no saro round kedi ave tevu anuman che
aagala jawab vancho
Sir hu ek kisansu kodinar gir somnath amara vistar ma varsad saro thayo che hal vrapche aa vrap ketla divs rhevani skyatache ne aavta varsadno round kyare aavche plij sir…
agala jawab aaje aapel vancho
Now position next week
Sar navo raund kyare avse
Varsad no bijo round kyare saruvat thase
ગામ.ટીંબડી તા.જોડીયા. જી.જામનગર
સરજયશ્રીકૃષણ….હાલપવનનુજોરવધુછેતોતેનુકારણસુહૉયસકે…મોટીવેરાવળ..તા..લાલપુર..જી..જીમનગર
Pavan avati kaal sudhi raheshe.
have varsad no round avse ke nay
Thnx for new update
Hi,
There are no chances of good rain till mid month. Such long period without rain is called break monsoon phase. As you said above in post there are no chances of El-Nino, then what’s the factor which is making the break monsoon phase. The MJO is not in favorable phase, and it looks like it will come in good position after mid-month. But, really MJO could make so much effect on monsoon.??? Whats your perspective on this??.
thanks.
It is raining in North India and East India (so what happened to MJO ?)
Break monsoon is for West and South India and is normal since it gives rain to other parts of India.
This break is not usual in early august and usually axis doesn’t stays up there in north for so long time. There are no chances of good rain till 18th.
When MJO is seen to be in 2nd stage usually it results in break phase. And last week MJO were in 2 nd stage.
What was the MJO position during the deluge over Saurashtra/North Gujarat ?
સર ઘોરાજી આજુ બાજુ મા વરસાદ ખુબ જ આછો છે હવે નવો રાઉન્ડ ક્યારેય આવશે
Haal ma koi moto round nathi.
સર.. છ દિવસથી અમારે વરાપ છે હાલ વરસાદની જરુરેય નથી પણ અમારી બાજુમાં સ્વામીના ગઢડા ના ગામોમાં વરસાદ ઓછો છે તો હવે આગળ નવો રાઉન્ડ કયારે શરુ થાય તેમ છે..??? ગામ.કરીયાણા તા.બાબરા જિ.અમરેલી
Bija no vichar karo chho te saru chhe !
Pan pahela tamara email address nu vicharo… sachu chhe ?
Sachu email address lakhsho toe comment prasiddh thashe.
saheb have varsad no round avse
Even IOD is also neutral to positive,let’s hope for good rainfall in 2nd half of monsoon
Air 700 hpa ma date 8 9 10 uac batave Che pan varsad nathi batavtu?
fakt zaapta/hadvo
have varsad kayare thase ashok bhai palliz batavone
હવે વરસાદ કયારેઆવસે
Haal khas nathi jyare avey tyare fakt Zaapta/Hadvo
Sir have 7&8 Varshad nu kese to su varshad avse ke nahi ane Ave to kevo avse
Zaapta/Hadvo
Sir new updet kyare aapso kayk sara varsad ni rah joy chi karanke amare atyar sudhima mand 10 thi 12 inch jevoj padyo che hadvo pliz
Haal kai varey evu nthi
Sir shravn mahina ma etlo pavan kem koi sistam devlop thai rahi chhe arbi ma
No.
Sir kal sanj thi thanda pavan fukai chhe tenu karan su hoy sake koi moti system banvani haise
Pavan 5 tarikh sudhi vadhu raheshe.
No.aal.nino.matlabh.baki.chomasu.pan.bhart.mate.saru.se.aevu.thayu.ne.sir
Evu badha maney chhe.
El Nino varsash hoy shareras varsad 94% thaay.
La Nina hoy toe 106 % sharerash varsad thaay.
Neutral hoy 100% shareras varsad thaay.
Atham na divse dhodhmar varshad ave to saru 😀
Good news sir
Sir
Good news
Thanks
good news ashok bhai
Email address sachu lakho jethi bhavishya ma tamari comment prasiddh thaay aney SPAM ma na jaay.
Haal nu email address ma google vara gotey chadya chhe !!
Good news for this year..