Tropical Cyclone 02B (Phailin) Warning #07
Issued at 10/1500Z
TC Warning Text:
WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 90.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.9N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.6N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.8N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.7N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.3N 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 02B HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED FROM 4.0 AT 10/00Z TO 6.0 AT
10/12Z. THE EIR INDICATES A WARM SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE WITH
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM COLD-MEDIUM-GREY TO
COLD-DARK-GREY. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS TIGHTENED AS
EVIDENT IN A 101323Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS INCREASED ACCORDINGLY DUE TO THE RI EVENT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
02B IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN AS IT
DRIFTS ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND MAKES LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC
PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE RUGGED INDIAN
TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
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