A Low Pressure had developed over Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Orissa West Bengal Coast. On 18th the System tracked over land over Orissa. Today this Low Pressure area has tracked Northwestwards and now lies over East Madhya Pradesh and vicinity. Associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation is tilting Southwestwards with height. Hence forth the Low Pressure is expected to track mainly Northward and fizzle out by 21st morning.
TMD map shows the Low Pressure area this evening
The Monsoon Index shows that there will be active phase for the next five to six days.
NCEP/GFS Rainfall Forecast for 19th to 25th August 2012 shows that the North India, East India and Central India will receive heavy rainfall. Southwest Rajasthan, Western India will receive medium rainfall while Saurashtra, and Kutch will not receive meaningful rainfall as can be seen from the Forecast map. Rest of India will receive moderately heavy rainfall.
This NCEP/GFS Rainfall Anomaly Forecast for 19th to 25th August 2012 shows that the Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch will receive 50 to 75% less than normal rainfall for this week.
Saurashtra the sky will be partly cloudy with periods of more cloudy sky. The barometric pressure will be on increasing trend. The winds will be from Southwest and then South South west.
Saurashtra will receive Isolated showers during 19th to 23rd August.