The Low Pressure from the Bay of Bengal that tracked towards Madhya Pradesh by 7th/8th August gave rainfall to parts of North Gujarat, Central Gujarat and South Gujarat till 9th August. There has not been meaningful rainfall over Saurashtra where there has been only isolated scattered showers ranging from 1 mm. to 6 mm. over some places of Juanagadh and Bhavnagar Districts on 9th August.
As of today there is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Madhya Pradesh and adjoining West Uttar Pradesh border area. There is another Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal areas of North Orissa and West Bengal and extends up to Mid Tropospheric
level.
Expected track of the UAC:
11th August: Both the UACs will merge into a larger UAC over North Chhatishgarh, Madhya Prasedh and vicinity areas.
12th August: The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation will track Westwards will be spread over Central Madhya Pradesh and vicinity.
13th August: The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation will track North Westwards towards West Madhya Pradesh & East Rajashtan area and vicinity.
The Convective clouding associated with the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation will be mainly towards West as well as Southwest of the UAC.
Hence, the rainfall areas are vicinity of UAC and to the West & Southwest of the UAC.
The TMD map shows two Low Pressures in the same areas as both the UACs.
NCEP/GFS Rainfall Forecasts 10th August to 16th August 2012
The map shows good rainfall for North & Central Gujarat with Saurashtra getting lower amount of rainfall compared to Gujarat.
Forecast: 10th August to 14th August
Gujarat: North Gujarat & Central Gujarat will benefit from the UAC approaching towards East Rajasthan Northwest M.P. area between 11th to 13th August. Estimated rainfall could be ranging from 5 Cm.s to 10 Cms. with isolated places getting higher rainfall. South Gujarat will get rainfall on three of the the four days between 11th to 14th August.
Saurashtra & Kutch: There is good chance for Saurashtra to get rainfall from the approaching Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation mainly on 12th and 13th August. The quantum of rainfall will depend upon the final track of the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation that would approach towards Northwest Madhya Pradesh & Southeast Rajasthan. Update will be given tomorrow.