As of today the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation has tracked West Northwestwards over East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining North Chhatishgarh and by tomorrow the UAC will spread over Madhya Pradesh and vicinity as had been forecast.
The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation at 700 Mb. forecast for 12th morning is shown below:
13th August: The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation will track North Westwards towards West Madhya Pradesh & East Rajashtan area and vicinity.
The Convective clouding associated with the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation will be mainly towards West as well as Southwest of the UAC.
Hence, the rainfall areas are vicinity of UAC and to the West & Southwest of the UAC.
The Monsoon will be active for about four days as shown in the Monsoon Index Chart of 10th August 2012
Forecast: 11th to 14th August Gujarat is expected to receive heavy rainfall in pockets of M.P. Gujarat border areas, Central Gujarat and some parts of North Gujarat. Rest of the areas of Gujarat will receive medium rainfall. Expected rain would be 4 Cms. to 10 Cms. with isolated places getting higher amounts of above 15 Cms..
Saurashtra will get medium rain mainly on 12th to 13th and in some isolated places on 14th. Expected rain would be 2 Cms. to 5 Cms. with isolated places getting higher amounts.