6th January 2015

El Nino Status: No El Nino till end of 2014

Most of the agencies monitoring El Nino have been forecasting every month from the beginning of 2014 that an El Nino would begin in the next two months. The year 2014 has completed without a full fledged El Nino. Only two consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons SON and OND have had ONI index equal to or above +0.5ºC thresh hold till end of 2014. SON 2014= +0.5ºC and OND 2014 = +0.7ºC

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.