Last week Rainfall over Saurashtra has been Scattered with Isolated Heavy downpour at a few places. Rajkot has received 5 to 8 Cms. of rain during the past week with heaviest rain of 5.5 Cms. yesterday in some parts of the City. There is an instance of Upleta receiving 19 Cm. in a day when adjoining Dhoraji town getting only 4 Cms. In short the rainfall pattern has been very uneven throughout Saurashtra. The Barometric pressure was 1004 to 1006 mb. on 14th July and currently has come down to 996 to 998 mb. at Rajkot.
The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Alwar, Gwalior, Satna, Ambikapur, Jharsuguda, Puri and thence Southastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. The upper air cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining Northwest Rajasthan in lower tropospheric levels persists.
Monsoon winds have strengthened over Arabian Sea and south peninsular India. There is an off shore trough from South Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast.
Weather conditions are good for rains to continue over Saurashtra. Initially scattered rainfall is expected to continue till 22nd. July and subsequently, the extent and quantum is expected to increase between 23rd to 26th July.
Forecast: 20th July to 26th July 2010
Saurashtra:
Coastal Saurashtra from Coast upto 40 Kms. Inland is expected to receive cumulative 10 Cms. to 15 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 15 Cms. of rainfall.
Rest of Saurashtra is expected to receive cumulative 5 Cms. to 10 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 10 Cms. of rainfall.
South Gujarat & North Gujarat:
South Gujarat expected to receive cumulative 12 Cms. to 20 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 20 Cms. of rainfall.
North Gujarat expected to receive cumulative 8 Cms. to 12 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 15 Cms. of rainfall.
Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan:
Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan are expected to receive cumulative 20 Cms. to 25 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 30 Cms. of rainfall.
North India:
Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, New Delhi Himachal Pradesh, North & Central Madhya Pradesh, East Rajastan are expected to receive cumulative 15 Cms. to 20 Cms. of rainfall during the forecast period on various days with Isolated places getting above 20 Cms. of rainfall. Also chances of landslide will increase due to heavy downpour. Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand will recieve moderate rainfall.
NCEP GSF Ensemble Precipitation Forecast for 20th to 26th July 2010
Forecast in Akila Daily dated 20th July 2010 @ 11.00 am.
