The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Phalodi, Centre of Low Pressure area over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan , Sagar, Umeria, Ambikapur, Balasore and thence Southeastwards to Eastcentral Bay of Bengal. There is an Off Shore trough from Saurashtra & Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. There is a Mid-upper Air Cyclonic Circualtion at 1.5 to 3 Kms. level above MP. Maharashtra border, Gujarat and vicinity.
There has been wide spread rainfall over Saurashtra, Kutch & rest of Gujarat during the last four days starting from 27th August 2010. The details are given hereunder:
27th August 7.00 am. to 31st August 7.00 am.
Whole Gujarat average rainfall 101 mm.
Saurashtra average rainfall 126 mm.
North Gujarat average rainfall 60 mm.
East Central Gujarat average rainfall 74 mm.
South Gujarat average rainfall 125 mm.
Kutch average rainfall 70 mm.
Various Districts of Saurashtra Details:
Amreli average rainfall 78 mm.
Bhavnagar District average rainfall 69 mm.
Jamnagar District average rainfall 143 mm.
Junagaadh District average rainfall 156 mm.
Porbandar District average rainfall 190 mm.
Rajkot District average rainfall 183 mm.
Surendranagar District average rainfall 86 mm.
Forecast:
Widespread rainfall will continue over Saurashtra & Kutch today and will decrease from tomorrow by quantum as well as coverage.
Here are two forecast model maps for GSF as well as GOES5 for the period from 27th August 2010 to 2nd September 2010. It shows cumulative of actual four days rainfall already occurred plus three days of forecast rainfall till 2nd. September.
As per the Maps Saurashtra & Konkan will get heavier rainfall compared to South Gujarat.
GSF Model: Use with Caution
GOES5 Model: Use with Caution
