The Depression from the West Pacific Ocean crossed over Malasia yesterday into the South Andaman Sea thereby weakening to a Low Pressure area. Today the System has strengthened to a Well Marked Low Pressure having central pressure of 1002 Mb. located at 8.5N 94E. about 1600 Kms. East of Tamilnadu Coast. There is also a Mid-Upper Level Cyclonic Circulation in the Arabian Sea close to Karnataka Coast.
Map from Thailand Met Dept.
Forecast for the Bay of bengal System:
This System is expected to track mainly Westwards initially at about 15 Kms/Hour and strengthen further to a Depression in the next 24 hours. Further strengthening by two notches is expected by 6th November to a Cyclonic Storm to be named "JAL". Various forecast model scenario is given hereunder:
CMC Track & SST
GFS Track & SST
NOGAP Track & SST
Heavy rain is forecast for Andaman & Nicobar Island till 6th November. Also Heavy rain is forecast for Coastal Orissa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Karnataka till 8th November, mainly between 5th & 7th November. Maharashtra including Mumbai will receive scattered rainfall between 5th to 9th November. Forecast rainfall maps will be posted on 5th November.
Forecast for Saurashtra & Gujarat:
Looking to various forecast models there is a good probability of unseasonal rain over many parts of Saurashtra and Gujarat from 5th to 10th November mainly around 9th November.
Forecast in Akila Daily dated 3rd November 2010 @ 10.30 am.
