El Nino Update on 17th June 2015
Full fledged EL Nino was confirmed at the end of March 2015 when the five consecutive 3 monthly seasons had ONI index of +0.5 C or higher. It has been a weak El nino till date.
March, April & May 2015 SST anomaly for Nino3.4 region is used to calculate the ONI Index for MAM as +0.7ºC.
As per NOAA Officially El Nino is declared as per conditions laid down and shown in ONI Index graph below:
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
Classification of El Nino:
Weak El Nino: ONI Index +0.5ºC to 0.9ºC
Moderate El Nino: ONI Index +1.0ºC to 1.4ºC
Strong El nino: +1.5ºC to 1.9ºC
Very Strong El nino: +2.0ºC and above
As per classification a weak El Nino exist till date since the last ONI Index for MAM 2015 was +0.7ºC which is below +1.0ºC. Most International forecasters maintain that this El Nino is expected to become moderate and ultimately a strong El nino. This means that the ONI Index has to rise to above +1.5ºC. However, Southern Oscillation Index has been increasing from a negative zone and the SOI value has increased to above zero and is in the neutral zone recently.
Currently the two parameters are out of Sync with one another. This could be a temporary blip and should be monitored.
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
Queensland Government – The Long Paddock
Average for last 30 days |
2.29 |
|---|---|
Average for last 90 days |
-5.96 |
Daily contribution to SOI calculation |
-1.69 |
March |
-10.67 |
|---|---|
April |
-3.08 |
May |
-13.11 |
As per BOM, Australia:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was in the negative zone at the end of May 2015 and during the last two weeks has climbed up to above zero and has a positive value in the neutral zone. The latest 30-day SOI value from BOM-Australian Government for period ending June 15th June 2015 is +1.5 which denotes neutral zone.
BOM – 30 Days Moving SOI
દિલગીરી . ૧૭ જુન ૨૦૧૫ ની અલ્નીનો માટે નો સુધારો વાંચવો.
તા. ૧૬ જુન ૨૦૧૬ ની અલ નીનો સ્ત્ર્લીગ નીમાહિતી ગુજરાતી માંઆપવાં વિનંતી.
sir,kutch ma monsoon ne jor pakadta ketlu time lagse
Prashna ek var poochho ane jawaab ni raah jovo.
Banne baju System hoi tarikh 24 sudhi ma avi jashe kutch ma. Te darmyan Arabian UAC ne hisabe pan chhuto chhavayo varsad no laabh madi shake. jovo su thaay chhe.
Sir so is it early days to panic of deficit rains as for now it’s all on track ? Advice please
No reason to panic. Also specify your region.
thanks sir. have santi thai . ane have atlu bons bas. have 5. 7 divas pachhi pelu uac ave ne kevo labh ape te upar 6.
Sir hal ma gfs model 574 ready 6. ke kharabi avi gai 6.
Aava Model ma ek thi vadhu oopar aadhar rakhvo pade.
Sir madhyprdesh m.p. Baju thi vadla aave she to bob nu low pressure gujrat Baju aavvani skyta khri
MP baju na vadada pan varsad api shake…. baki Low Pressure nu mookam haal Bangad ni khadi ma chhe.
નમસ્તે સર
આજ બપોર બાદ સાયલા,ચોટીલાને રાજકોટમાં ઓછાવતા અંશે વરસાદ.
Sir chamasu kem dhimu padigayu che?
Kai dhimu nathi padi gayu…. tamo adhira thaya chho.
Varsad Saurashtra ma ghana vistar ma chhe… chomasu bhale ne declare nathyu….
BOB Low ghana vistar ne avari leshe.
Arabian System jo Saurashtra ni Pashchime ave to pavan Chomasu thai jaay… baaki Havaman Khatu kahe ke comasu besi gayu toe besi gayu…. aapade varsad thi kaam chhe.
sir
maro Matlab ae che ke 547 modal ma aje bob ni sistam utar baju jay che tem batave che
Etle 8 thi 15 divas nu kai nakki nathi rahetu.
Sir Halvad MA Haji varsad nu tipuy padyu nathi amaro varo kyare aavase?
General chomasu nathi bethu…. haal Arbian Ma UAC chhe etle 20 tarikh sudhi toe chhuto chhavayo varsad chhe…. jovo tamaro chance ave chhe ke nahi…. tyaar baad vatavaran vadhu sudharshe
sri atiyare arbi ses imd mep ma je vadlo dekay se te surast bajo avi sake
jodiya taluka vistarma gajvij sathe varsad chalu
sir aje forecast modal ma takalif che?
bhayavadar ma andaje 1.5inch varsad che
Aaje je baaki haata teno special vaaro chhe…. ema forecast model shu kare ?
wlcm sir !!!!!
Sir.Idar ni aaspas na vistromo hagu vavni layak varsad thayo nathi kyre thase?
Tamare M.P. baju lagu padshe…. haal je aave chhe te ma tamone 20 tarikh sudhi chhuta chhavaya ma laabh maley toe saru.
last 2 days average good rainfall in porbandar area. average 0.5 to 3 inch.
Thanks for info.
http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?page_id=790
Sir as link juo haji sudhi juni image batave che.tamare update Thai jay che pan
Chek this…out
Pls…….
Date 18-06-2015 @ 0915 UTC …. haal ni image chhe 3.45 pm. IST
Also Image niche lakhan chhe te vanchi levu.
Hope to get your feedback…. if problem is resolved.
rajkot ma 18/06/15 ne 3:57pm time jordar varshad chalu se sir
sir rajkot par kala kala bov kala vadla se time 3:46pm
sir kodinar ma saro varsad kyare pad6 ? roj
savarthij kala vadla thai 6 pan varasto kem nathi ?
Vatavaran saru chhe….. varsad avashe.
sir, arbi samudra upernu UAC low pressure ma kya sudhima parivatit thase ane teni saurashtra ma kevi asar thase.
Low pressure ni shu jaroor chhe…. varsad chalu chhe ane raheshe…. haal chhuto chhavayo.
Why Heavy rain in Ahmedabad mostly depends on BOB system, why not on any other system?
Ahmedabad is aligned in that way along with most areas to the East of Ahmedabad. You get more rain with BOB system.
Junagadh jilla ma chhella 3 divas thi adhadha thi 2 inch varsad aave che to sarvtrik varsad kyare thase.
Sir,
In Rajkot Barometer showing 998.3 mb and it is falling rapidly so is it sign of low pressure ?
No. This is normal Monsoon time Barometric pressure for Saurashtra.
Have kutch ma kyare varsad avse?
Arabian ane Bangad ni System Kutch ne varsad aapshe. Te darmyan chhuto chhavayo varsad chalu raheshe 20 tarikh sudhi. Ema Kutch ni lottery lage toe jovo.
Navi update k di apso ?
Update hashe toe avashe.
have pasini aagahi kedi mukso sar
20 tarikh sudhi haju laabh leva dio chhuto chhavayo varsad
Sir morbi vistar ma varsad sarvtrik kyare padse
imd ma jyare ghata vadla hata tyare na avyo ane aje imd ma kai khas vadla dekhta nathi ane aje amara vistar ma dhabdhabavi nakhya
Vavi ne BONUS jamee lidhu !
Ready dhan kamlit .
kadaka bhadaka sathe 2thi 3 inc
Keshod ma 1.10pm vagya thi kadaka ane vijadi sathe jordar varsad chalu thayo.
Sara samachar !
Sir.17-6-15 time 23:15 Gujaratweather.in google all imeges Mo time gai rat no che.
Piyushbhai … kaaik samj fer thaay chhe.
Please go to http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?page_id=790 ane jovo…. google nu ama su kaam chhe?
sir. vavni jevitevi thai 6. ane aje 20vigha vavididhu 6. to sarvatrik vavni 22. 23 ma thai jase?
Vavani tarikhe khabar napade. varsad maate saanookool vatavaran chhe tamo kaho chho te tarikho ma 22-25 ma.
Te pahela BONUS toe kharu.
Sir.IMD Ni imeges time sar update nathi thai tenu karan sarkari office che atle.
Tamare su time batave chhe te janavo ane link moklo.
Marey IMD ma update 30 minute thaay chhe.
very good sir… el nino sav khatam thay jay to saru
sir alnino majubt nathi thai saktu to ani asr varsad ma kevi pade sari rahe ke kharab
To labh thase..thanX
Sir, I want know that is el Nino is going to happen or not?. And it is going to affect the monsoon?
You can follow English, so why don’t you google El Nino update and learn.
El Nino already exists from March 2015.
Sir
avakhte dar vakhat karta specially 3 thi 4 varus ma j varsad ni pattern j alag enakarta straight ne line wise chale che jem k mumbai than south guj thn saur else vache gya varso amare sngr per to varsad jajo prem mukyoto avakhte line ma varo avse amaro vwche thi varsade hadfete na lidha… And last sirji have surendranagar mate avta divso ma varsad kem rese
Hello sir
good for indian monsoon
sir il nino ni asar Gujarat par thay evu to kai nathi ne
Sir
aana vishe mare kai puchhvu nathi pan mane khali aetlu janavo el nino ochho thayo ke vadharo thayo?? Khali jankari mate
Sir El Niño ni asar osi thase evu mani sakay kharu?
El Nino Majboot nathi thai sakato.
Sir el-neno vise gujarati ma tukma ans. Apone pl.
Gujarati ma mahiti agali badhi mukel chhe. website ma.
El Nino Majboot nathi thai sakato.
Sir.please give what is final conclusion in short.
Je kahevanu hatu te kahel chhe.
Aa post badha maate nathi. jene lagu pade te vanche chhe.
El Nino Majboot nathi thai sakato.
El Nino Majboot nathi thai sakato.
Elneno e su 6e? Anathi kya kya nuksan thay?
Aa post badha maate nathi. jene lagu pade te vanche chhe.
Sir sakya hoi to guj. Ma anuvad apso
Aa post badha maate nathi. jene lagu pade te vanche chhe.
El Nino Majboot nathi thai sakato.
El Nino Majboot nathi thai sakato.