Current Weather Conditions on 5th October 2015 @ 8.00 am. IST
IMD Map showing the Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon till 3rd October 2015.
Monsoon has not yet withdrawn South of Porbandar, Bhavnagar in Saurashtra & South of Baruch in Gujarat.
The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over Central Bay of Bengal at 3.1 km above mean sea level.
IMD 700 hPa Wind Forecast Valid 00 UTC 5th October 2015
The East-West shear zone roughly along Latitude 15.0°N at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.
The Western Disturbance as an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation over North Pakistan & neighborhood extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.
Forecast: 5th October to 9th October 2015
An Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation would develop over the East Central Arabian Sea around 8th October.
IMD 700 hPa Wind Forecast Valid 00 UTC 8th October 2015
Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch:
Weather will be clear on most days during the forecast period with no chance of any meaningful rainfall. The Maximum Temperature is expected to remain above normal over many places of Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch during the forecast period mainly from 6th to 9th October.
Advance Indication : ECMWF forecast model forecasts a strong System ( at least a Depression ) in the East Central Arabian Sea after the forecast period while the GFS forecast model does not concur with this outcome. There is differing outcome for the Arabian Sea System and so further update will be given in 48 hours.
Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Map showing Development of a System
@ 00 UTC on 10th October 2015
Wunderground GSF 925 hPa Map shows low possibility of a System
@ 00 UTC on 10th October 2015
અપડેટ તારીખ 5 ઓક્ટોબર સવારે 8.00 કલાકે:
દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમ ચોમાસુ સમગ્ર યુપી અને એમપી ના વધુ ભાગો તેમજ બિહાર અને છતીશગઢ ના અમૂક ભાગ માંથી વિદાય લીધી છે.
દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમ ચોમાસા ની વિદાય રેખા નકશા માં બતાવેલ છે. 3 ઓક્ટોબર તારીખ લખેલ લીલી લીટી ની ઉત્તરે બધા વિસ્તારો માંથી ચોમાસા એ વિદાય લીધી તેમ સમજવાનું. પોરબંદર થી ભાવનગર થી ભરૂચ ની દક્ષીણે ચોમાસા એ હજુ વિદાય લીધેલ નથી.
એક UAC મધ્ય બંગાળ ની ખાડી માં 3.1 કિમી ની ઉંચાયે છે.
પૂર્વ પશ્ચીમ નું શિયર ઝોન Latitude 15.0°N 3.1 કિમી ના લેવલ ઉપર છે.
વેસ્ટર્ન ડીસ્ટર્બન્સ 3.1 કિમી ના લેવલે ઊત્તર પાકિસ્તાન અને આસપાસ છે.
આગાહી: તારીખ 5 ઓક્ટોબર થી 9 ઓક્ટોબર
મધ્ય પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં તારીખ 8 ઓક્ટોબર આસપાસ એક UAC છવાશે.
સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ:
થોડા વાદળો સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના કાંઠા ઉપર ક્યારેક છવાય છે પણ આગાહી સમય માં કોઈ નોંધ પાત્ર વરસાદ ની શક્યતા નથી. ગરમી વધી છે અને આગાહી સમય માં સૌરાષ્ટ્ર, ગુજરાત અને કચ્છ ના ઘણા સેન્ટરો માં મહત્તમ તાપમાન નોર્મલ થી ઊંચું રહેશે ખાસ કરી ને તારીખ 6 થી 9 સુધી.
આગોતરું એન્ધાણ: આગાહી સમય પછી ECMWF ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મૂજબ મધ્ય પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં એક મજબૂત સીસ્ટમ બનશે (ઓછા માં ઓછું ડીપ્રેસન ની માત્રા ) જયારે GSF ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મૂજબ આવું કઈ નથી. બંને મોડલ માં મતમતાંતર હોઈ 48 કલાક પછી આ અંગે અપડેટ થશે.
Weather Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 5th October 2015
Sir,
Chhella avela varsad na round na karne kapas ma fal, ful khari gya chhe,
Tena pachhi hot weather na karne navo maal avto nathi,
Tena mate shiyalu pavan(across north west ) jaruri chhe.
As per your update 9 sudhi vatavaran sudhrse nahi.
Low Pressure thay pachhi Well Marked Low Thay pachhi vadhu majboot thaya tyare Depression kahevaay.
Darshan faldu
05/10/2015 6:51 pm
Gfs msl pressure chart showing A cyclonic circulation in Arebian sea covert into a law pressure area in 9th this system likly a very strong next upcoming days , but the system is in its nacent stage , so circumstances is wait & watch Sir , ur prediction ?
Sir if it convert into cyclone, will it be beneficial for saurashtra, though the GFS does not confirm it. But if it create how big and strong it would be?
Sir purv arbisamudr masystem bane to(low presar ) te nathi saurshat ma varasad Thai Jo Thai to aasare ketala divas pachi varsad aave sir amaru gam Porbandar thi 36 k.m.khambhaliya baju avel Che ple.ansar
Ashok Bhai Porbandar baju to varsadna Kai aendhan to nathine karanke atyare amara ghana khedut bhai Magfadi aupadvanu Chalu kari didhu che. Varsad thase to Magfadi ma motu nukshan Thase.
Samanya ritey Dakshin ane Dakshin pashchim hoi pan System bane tyare pako khyal ave. Temaj System na vadado ni amook poochadiyu Bangad ni khadi baju thi pan avati hoi chhe.
Sawal vichitra nathi. Banne IMD GFS na chart chhe fakt alag alag oonchaye. 850 hPa =1.5 km and 700 hPa =3.1 km. oonchaye hoi.
Low Pressure thava maate 925 hPa (0.75 km oonchay) ma pan avu hovu joiye. Tyaar baad Dariya na levele etle ke MSLP chart ma Low Pressure dekhay.
Jem niche aave etle low thaay.
vijayrajsinh Jadeja
05/10/2015 12:55 pm
Sr 11 and 12 tarikhe cola eges 850 pressure. And forcast MA arbi smudra MA Ek mjbut uac and tyaj imd msl MA majbut low pressure bdaveche Maru anuman sachu Che and e pressure thi Gujrat NE Kay faydo thay
hello sir, sir any chance now for rain from 9 onwards to 22oct I always your prediction and then compare it to other sites http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tcdc&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= Sir this is uk link like our imd this sitre provide all details They are predicting rainy weather from 9 onwards to 22 as we can see cloud cover from 9 onwards over gujarat specially porbandar side and east saurashtra and from 18 entire guj till 22 so sir wht u feel and want to say on this… I know this site also from 6month now.. their satellite images prediction is also good like urs…… Read more »
Sir kale Navi update ketla vage also
Shakya hashe savaare
13 tarikha nu puchiyu 6 sir shorey.
Sr cola eges forcast pressure MA and imd 950ma 12 ane 13 tarikhe low vadhu NE vadhu majbut that u Jay che
Mslp ma mubae phase 1008 ne 1010 nu goal chakar 6 the low 6?
Jem aaju baaju karta vadhu ochhu hoi te Low Pressure.
Sr system MA ky ferfar thayo Gujrat MA ava ni skyata khari?
Fer far chalu chhe. Upadate thashe kaale.
Sir,
Chhella avela varsad na round na karne kapas ma fal, ful khari gya chhe,
Tena pachhi hot weather na karne navo maal avto nathi,
Tena mate shiyalu pavan(across north west ) jaruri chhe.
As per your update 9 sudhi vatavaran sudhrse nahi.
Agla Divso ma shiyalu vatavaran na sanjogo chhe?
Pavan bhur ( North East hoi) ane haal mix pavan chhe.
mane evu lage chhe ke uac 24 kalak ma low bani jase ?
Sir
Kutch ma divasbhar na uklat bad sanje vatavarn vadalchhayu banyu chhe lagechhe varsad padse.
sir
ECMWF model je vat kare 6e te have gfs modele svikaryu???
Fer far thaya kare chhe banne model ma. Santa kukadi ramta hoi eni jem !
Sir arbi vali system pan gote nathi chadi ne….ane te anti uac ne karan guj taraf agal nathi vadhati ?
Koi pan System ne Gujarat taraf avavu evo koi fix niyam nathi.
Lagbhag badha modelo batave che.arbi vadi system
Sir pelu laxdip pase uac hatu tenu su thyu?
evu ahi thi kai kahevama nathi aviyu.
ECMWF gsf forcast nu ful name janavso
ECMWF= The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
GFS = Global Forecast System
Sir mara khyal prmane gujrat ne antycayclon nade chhe low pressure oman baju jatu rahe tem lage chhe
Sir devbhumi duvarka 10 tarikh suthi varsad padvani. ahina vadilo aagahi kare che to te sachhi pade ke nahi. Ke anuman karata madaso khota kare che.
Te loko Hathiyo Nakshatra chhe etle kahe chhe.
Ahi badhu Vignanik ritey joiy ne kaheva ma aave chhe.
Thoda divas pachhi Arabi Samudrama Low Pressure System thavani chhe. Jovo su thay chhe.
12 tarikh ni aaju baju GUJARAT ma varsad na chance chhe ke kem..
Haju kai nakki na hoi. System develop thaay em khyaal ave.
Sir uac jova mate link apo
Ahi website ma menu ma IMD weather chart link click karo
Sir.visvasniy fourcast model tamara mat pramane kyu imd nu ke uropiyan
Evu kai fix nathi.
Haal ma americama vavazodu hatu ane European moojab te chaliyu. U.S> na badha model khota padya.
Sir 925 850 700 badha ma 12 Oct ma uac bative che ane dariya level pan bative 6
(typing ma bhool thaay chhe tamari… correction karel chhe…. Moderator)
Thanks sir
saurastara.mate khas news hoy to apjo.
Sir depreshan atle majbut pan such a ma such I mantra a samjatu nathi
Toonk ma ek modal ma Depression thashe tem batave chhe.
sir
valasan amre tya puskad kanji dungdi nu vavetar saru 6 tyare aj varsadi vatavarn thayu to sir kal k pachhi na divse koy varsad ni skyta 6?
Arabian Sea ma hal chal chalu thaay chhe. teni oopar najar rakhvi padey.
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Comment karva maate Tamaru Email address hoi te lakho.
Khota email address vara comment prasiddh nahi thaay.
Ahi thi jo tamone email aave toe reply karo etle comment prasiddh thashe.
Sir.aje bhanvad talukana sajdayari,kantoliya,simar,rojivada ma varsadi japtu hatu.
namste sir,
D-jamnagar t-jamjodhpur vi-valasan ni as pas na vistarma kala vadado sathe( alp )chhata 6.10pm
Sir cola images ma 11tarikhe Mumbai phase arbi samundra ma atibhare varasad batave che the saurastra par avi sake
Ashok Bhai ઓછા માં ઓછું ડીપ્રેસન ની માત્રા Means matra Ochii hoi te saru ke kharab kevai ,varsad na chanse ke vadhare?
Low Pressure thay pachhi Well Marked Low Thay pachhi vadhu majboot thaya tyare Depression kahevaay.
Gfs msl pressure chart showing A cyclonic circulation in Arebian sea covert into a law pressure area in 9th this system likly a very strong next upcoming days , but the system is in its nacent stage , so circumstances is wait & watch Sir , ur prediction ?
Is there anything different from the update ?
Mara abhyas pramane arabi samudr ma usc che and taarik 11 naa roj aa usc low thayga.
Ashokbhai imd vala kahe chhe k Arabian sea sautheste ma 48 kalak pachhi low pressure ni sakyata chhe. The chachu chhe? Ajani evening nei agahima.
Barobar chhe tem lakhel chhe.
Ecmwf model atlu advance kem kahi sake???
Badha modal kahi shake. Badhanu alag alag taran hoi.
Sir if it convert into cyclone, will it be beneficial for saurashtra, though the GFS does not confirm it. But if it create how big and strong it would be?
There is no clarity till date and so the Advance indication has been given.
Sir namaste je 8tarikhe uac thai chhe te 11 12tarikhma low ma parivartit thai tevi sakyta che khari
Gujarati ma lakhel chhe aagotaru endhan.
Gujarat mate koi sara samachar thase 7.8 tarikh pa6e?
Update avar navar avashe. Haal kai nathi aagahi samay darmyan.
Thanks sir
સર mslp મા તારિખ8મા એક arbi samundama લોપ્રેસર બતાવે છે
Sir arab sagar ma majbut sistem gujarat ma labh thase ke nahi?
Ane aa sistem thase aevu ketla%lage chhe??
Evu kai kahel nathi aagotaru endhan vancho.
Sir purv arbisamudr masystem bane to(low presar ) te nathi saurshat ma varasad Thai Jo Thai to aasare ketala divas pachi varsad aave sir amaru gam Porbandar thi 36 k.m.khambhaliya baju avel Che ple.ansar
Endhan apel chhe. kaan ke fer far chalu hoi.
Ashok Bhai Porbandar baju to varsadna Kai aendhan to nathine karanke atyare amara ghana khedut bhai Magfadi aupadvanu Chalu kari didhu che. Varsad thase to Magfadi ma motu nukshan Thase.
Saurashtra ma badhe magafali oopadvanu tanu thayu hoi chinta rahe te swabhavik chhe.
Haju aa System bane ke na bane. Kevi bane. Ane bane toe kai taraf jaay. ghana badha jo ane toe chhe.
Khedut ne kheti karya chalu rakhva apdey. Kudarat dhyan rakhashe.
Sir arbi in system ma pan varsad pachim dakshin pachim. Pade ane Gujarat ma bhej nu pram an jovu hoy to shema jovu pade
Samanya ritey Dakshin ane Dakshin pashchim hoi pan System bane tyare pako khyal ave. Temaj System na vadado ni amook poochadiyu Bangad ni khadi baju thi pan avati hoi chhe.
oopala level ma bhej maate http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?page_id=997
jsk sir
maro sawal tmone thodok vichitra lagashe . Maro sawal ae che ke IMD GFS modal 850 hpa ane 700 hpa ma je UAC batavta hoy te UAC bannema aksarakha j batavta hoy ke alag alag batavta hoy ? Banne modalma jagya aekj hoy che teni vat kru chu . Ane aa 850 hpa ane 700 hpa mathi vadhare kema saru rizalt jova madi shake ? Ans . Aapjo plz sir .
Sawal vichitra nathi. Banne IMD GFS na chart chhe fakt alag alag oonchaye. 850 hPa =1.5 km and 700 hPa =3.1 km. oonchaye hoi.
Low Pressure thava maate 925 hPa (0.75 km oonchay) ma pan avu hovu joiye. Tyaar baad Dariya na levele etle ke MSLP chart ma Low Pressure dekhay.
Jem niche aave etle low thaay.
Sr 11 and 12 tarikhe cola eges 850 pressure. And forcast MA arbi smudra MA Ek mjbut uac and tyaj imd msl MA majbut low pressure bdaveche Maru anuman sachu Che and e pressure thi Gujrat NE Kay faydo thay
Tamoe ee je chart joya chhe te barobar chhe. pan alag forecast model ma alag tarikh ma chhe te haju begu thayu joiye.
Gujarat ne faydo thaay ke nukshan ?
Magafali na pathara khetar ma hoi.
imd. gfs 925. ane cola image jota te sisam 13 sudhudhi ma te gujarat saurastara najik avati hoi au lage 6
Ashok Bhai Tamari update Me je lakhel chhe (ઓછા માં ઓછું ડીપ્રેસન ની માત્રા )to teno Matlab Varsad Mi Sambhavna Vadhare ke Ochhi rahe
pahela aa System bane. Tyar baad kai baju jawani pachhi nakki thay varsad ni.
Depression etle: Low Pressure pachhi Welmarked Low ane tena thi majboot Depression.
Thnx sir
hello sir, sir any chance now for rain from 9 onwards to 22oct I always your prediction and then compare it to other sites http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tcdc&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= Sir this is uk link like our imd this sitre provide all details They are predicting rainy weather from 9 onwards to 22 as we can see cloud cover from 9 onwards over gujarat specially porbandar side and east saurashtra and from 18 entire guj till 22 so sir wht u feel and want to say on this… I know this site also from 6month now.. their satellite images prediction is also good like urs…… Read more »
The conditions are changing every forecast run and so if tow forecas models have similar outcome the likelihood of it happening increases.
all forecast are given after referring multiple models.
Sir aapda dharya pramane jo koi sistam bane to jamnagar rajkot baju pan sakyata re ke khali chomasu rekhani daksin bhago nej faydo re??
Koi pan System Arbian Sea ma bane ne vishad dariyo hoi gamey te baju jaay shake. (Haal ni koi vaat nathi ).
CHomasu viday ke nahi teni sathe nisbat nathi raheti.
Sir.
Arbi samudra ma system banse to tenathi saurasht upar kay asar dekhase?
Thankyou. Waiting for reply
Aagotaru endhan apel chhe. aagahi samay pachhi na samay nu kai nakki na hoi.
Sir, ECMWF model American metrology department na 6e ??
European model chhe
Thank sir new update.