22nd June morning.
Update will be done in Evening.
All comments will be answered in the Evening just for today.
આજે અપડેટ સાંજે થશે
આજે કમેન્ટ ના જવાબ સાંજે મળશે
Current Weather Conditions on 21st June 2015
A Low Pressure has developed over the North East Arabian & Adjoining East Central Arabian Sea early this morning. It is now a Well Marked Low Pressure.
સુચના: હાલ સિસ્ટમ કઈ બાજુ જશે ? મારા ગામ માં વરસાદ આવશે ? તેવા સવાલો કરવા નહિ. જેટલો વધુ સમય તમારા સવાલો નો જવાબ આપવામાં વાપરીશ એટલો ઓછો સમય અપડેટ માં આપી શકીશ. માટે સહકાર આપો.
ઊત્તર પૂર્વ અને લાગુ મધ્ય પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર માં લો પ્રેસર થયું છે. આગળ જતા શું થવું છે. કઈ બાજુ જશે તે બધું હજુ ચોક્કસ નથી. 24 કલાક માં ખ્યાલ આવશે. સૌરાષ્ટ્ર ના પશ્ચિમ કિનારા થીસીસ્ટમ નું સેન્ટર હાલ્ 300 Km. દક્ષીણ પશ્ચિમે છે. ઘટ વાદળા 500 Km. માં ફેલાયેલા છે જે આ સીસ્ટમ ના સેન્ટર થી મુખ્યત્વે પશ્ચિમે છે.
ટૂકું તને ટચ : બે ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ માં મત મત્તાંતર છે.
પણ હાલ નું નિદાન: આ સીસ્ટમ પહેલા થોડી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર થી દૂર જશે અને પછી પાછી સૌરાષ્ટ્ર કચ્છ તરફ પરત ફરશે તેવું અનુમાન છે. 24 કલાક માં ફેર ફર હશે અપડેટ થશે.
નીચે જે લખાણ તેમજ ચાર્ટ છે તે અનુભવી લોકો માટે આપેલ છે. હવામાન ની એ બી સી શીખતા હોઈ તેના માટે નથી, માટે ઉપર ટુકું ને ટચ આપેલ છે.
There is a differing outcome to the track of this Low Pressure by the two Forecast Models GFS & ECMWF. There will be more clarity by comparing the current position of the Low Pressure center with that of the initial center of both the Forecast Models.
The core of dense clouding associated with this Low Pressure is spread over a diameter of 500 Kms. The Center of the Low Pressure is located about 300 Km. Southwest from Western Saurashtra Coast. This means that the clouding is mainly to the West of the System Center.
Here is a comparison of the two Forecast Modes viz. GFS & ECMWF. The maps below are superimposed with Clouding and the initial conditions of 925 hPa chart for both the GFS & ECMWF models. It is very clear that the System center estimate of ECMWF 925 hPa chart seems to be off the reality with clouding. The GFS Model has the initial System Center close to the actual System Center and the vicinity of the dense core of clouding that can be seen to the right of the System Center in 925 hPa chart.
Conclusion: There is high probability that GFS model outcome would prevail. However, further monitoring a few forecast runs will make things more clear.
Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 21st June 2015 @ 1200 UTC
Wunderground ECMWF 925 hPa Chart Valid 21st June 2015 @ 1200 UTC
Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 23rd June 2015 @ 0000 UTC
Wunderground GFS 925 hPa Chart Valid 24th June 2015 @ 1200 UTC
From IMD Inference on 21st June issued at 2030 IST based on observations of 1730 IST:
The low pressure area over northeast Arabian sea off Gujarat now lies as a well marked low pressure area over Northeast and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea. The system is likely to concentrated into a depression during next 24 hour.
As per NRL: 97A.INVEST first appeared over the North East & adjoining East Central Arabian Sea on 20-06-2015 @ 2130 UTC.
NRL IR Satellite Image on 21st June 2015 @ 1300 UTC ( 6.30 pm. IST)
NRL Visible Satellite Image on 21st June 2015 @ 1230 UTC ( 06.00 pm. IST)
low Pressure nabadu padi rahyu che k nahi?
sir evu lage chhe k lowpressure vikhrai gayu
Depression 97A to make.. (baaki nu delete karel chhe… vinanti biji website nu ahi post na karvu…Moderator)
અરબ સાગર પર સર્જાયું …
(Baaki nu delete karel chhe… vinanti biji website nu ahi post na karvu… Moderator)
charotar anand ma varasad j nathi. !
Hello sir
Jamjodhpur taluka ma haji sudhi varsad chuto chavyo aavel che jyare aaju baju ma ghano saro varsad che to jamjodhpur panthak ma varsad na samachar aapso
Ek weather blog mujab 24 th tarikhe low kutch border hit karse
Dakshin ane purva saurashtrama sarvtrik vavni layak varsad thayo 6e
hello sir
hu tamari roj ni monsoon ni update vanchu chhu pan sir ek sawal no jawab aapo mane sir ke ahi kutch ma hamna kem hitwave chhe ahi garmi bahuj lage chhe ane akash pan khulu chhe enu su karan chhe ane pawan pan bahuj tej chhe pan e pavano garam bahuj chhe enu su karan chhe sir pls answer me
Tamare varsad ni matra bahu ochhi hati atyar sudhi.
Havey varsad na chance bahu sara thaya chhe tamara maate. 23-25 ma soro varsad thashe
latipur ma kedi varshad aavse?date aapo
The patch(Low pressure)over Arabian sea is weakening now.Would love to hear expert comments from Ashokbhai
Last update is of a Depression. The clouding seems to have become disorganised. NRL has reduced the winds to 25 knots.
Thank you very much for your expert comment Ashokbhai,much obliged.
Sir rajkot ma saro varsad kyare aavse
sar jamjodhapur ma khali vadal chhayu
Imd confram low pressure deep deprestion ma fervayu
Depression nu vanchelu
હરો ઓમ સર
એક્સટિમ વેધર ફોરકાસ્ટ મુજબ આ વાવાઝોડું કચ્છમાં આવશે તે સાચું છે કે નહીં?
Sir,what happen with arebion low presser?
Please UPDATE soon.
Sir imd na gfs574 fircast mujab system north west side jay chhe
Sri good news update Karo pll.?
Sir divya Bhaskar.online news .ma72 kalak ma bhre varsad in aagahi aapi che.. 1 no nu signal….
Bhanvad talukana jasapar game1,5inch jetlo varsad padi gyo
Sir imd na letest forcast mujab system north-westward taraf gati kari ne oman ma jay chhe thats true???
Sir
News update batavo su kye havaman khata
Sir tamari vat karvani chata(bhasha) Oficer jevi nahi par ramuji hasya kalakar jevi che tenu shu karan(tame amuk jawabo ma jock kari lo cho)
sir arab sagar nu low pressure ane bangal ni seystom ek shathe avi sake?
NO
Mendarda ma2 kalak Sato varshad che
Arabian low pressures aaj savar thi well pressure ma parivit haivy rain alert.-IMD.
Savare Depression ni Jaherat karel IMD
sir a sistam ma aam ferfar thavanu karn shu
Tene oopala leval na pavano kai disha ma vaay chhe tena oopar fer far thato hoi chhe.
Sir ur weather station showind wind direction SSW so can we say that monsoon wind is setting up?
Wind was varying during the day. Conditions are good for onset of Monsoon.
Sir aavu varsadi vatavaran ketala divas rese???
aa system rajkot ketla samaye aavase
Jam khambhaliya ma 4pm saro varshad chalu thayel chhe
Sir different agencies have different prediction. Bbc , accua, freemetoe, yahooweather, as well as imd, I observed the same but this time all are confused. But they are forecasting for good rain in saurastra till 25. Sir as per your experience whats your prediction ? How much rainfall will be done upto 27. Sir if possible please reply
Samtoshkarak Saro varsad chhe.
Bharuch ma 4chhata padiya 6e ane jayare jambusar ma 1par chhhatu padiyu nathi
Mitro juthi afao na felavo OK
Sir mahisagar gi ma chomasu kayre avse
Join Google+
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sir mendarda ma dhimi dhare varsad ek kalaka thi chhalu 6
Sir aaje koi sare update made sake eam se?
Morbi ma varsad no khash jarur 6e
Jamkandorna ma atyare andharu thyu che,
pan varsad ni koi sakyata lagti nathi.
Sir samgra ghed vistar ma saro varasad chalu che
Avyo avyo SAVAJ Gandi Gir ne Dhamrodto Sorath ma avyo bapla
Aa week (22 to27/6/15) ma gujarat. Ane saurastra ma ketla inch average varsad avchhe pl reply me
Sir…. Arab sagar ma j… Low pressure ubu thayu …6….teni….chalva ni… Disha kai baju….6….Gujarat ma varshad apse…?
saheb aa sistamne ne kai nam aapyu che…
NO
Sir.Lathi ma jordar varshad time .1:20 haji chalu j 6 “Good Rain”
low presar bhale gujrat par na aave pan temna pawan gujrat par thi pasar thay to saro avo varsha d padi sake sir
Una ma dhodhmar varsad chalu chhe..
Sir, Banaskatha na vav-tharad mate kevu raheshe haji sudhi tipu padyu nathi.
Ratre photo kairite levay chhe
Infra Red hoi chhe.
Sir a tikha pavano Varsad mate jokhami to nay pade ne . Je Varsad ne dur dhakeli nakhe che mara mat mujab.