30th May 2020
Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation Over Southeast Arabian Sea – Expected To Become A Low Pressure By 1st June Helping Monsoon Progress
દક્ષિણ પૂર્વ અરબી સમુદ્ર પર અપર એર સાયક્લોનિક સર્ક્યુલેશન – 1 જૂન સુધી માં લો પ્રેસર થવાની શક્યતા જે ચોમાસા ને આગળ ચાલવા માં મદદ કરશે
Current Weather Conditions:
The Depression over South coastal Oman and adjoining Yemen remained practically stationary during past 06 hours and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th May, 2020 near latitude 17.3°N and longitude 54.2°E, about 30 km north-northeast of Salalah (Oman) and 240 km east-northeast of Al Ghaydah (Yemen). It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 12 hours. It is very likely to move slowly west-northwestwards during next 12 hours and west-southwestwards thereafter. No adverse weather is expected over Indian region due to this system, since it is located far away from Indian coast.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat.7°N/Long.50°E, Lat.7°N/Long.60°E, at.7°N/Long.70°E, Lat.6°N/Long.75°E, Lat.6°N/Long.79°E, Lat.8°N/Long.86°E, Lat.11°N/Long.90°E, Lat.14°N/Long.93°E and Lat.16°N/Long.95°E.
Conditions are becoming favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of South Arabian Sea, Maldives-Comorin area, Southwest and Southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours.
The Western Disturbance as an upper level trough now seen between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 68°E to the north of latitude 28°N.
There is an Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation up to 5.8 km above mean sea level over Southeast Arabian Sea off Kerala coast. JTWC has this UAC as 93A.INVEST location 9.9N, 72.4E.
Forecast: Up to 3rd June for Potential System.
A Low Pressure area is very likely to form over Southeast & adjoining Eastcentral Arabian Sea by 1st June and it is likely to strengthen as it tracks North Northwest along Indian Coast and reach East Central Arabian Sea, West of Maharashtra coast and South of Saurashtra Coast by 3rd June. There is a big difference in Forecast track of GFS and ECMWF and hence an update will be given on Monday the 1st June. Monsoon expected to set in over Kerala by 1st June 2020.
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IMD MSLP Chart for 11.30 am. of 2nd June 2020
ઉપર ની લિન્ક ક્લિક કરો. નવી વિન્ડો માં પેજ ખૂલશે
Forecast: Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch for 30 May to 6th June 2020
Weather will be partly cloudy. It will be windy till 2nd June and subsequently winds will be less. However, winds will be affected by upcoming Low Pressure System. Pre-Monsoon activity with thunder will start from 1st to 6th June. Rain quantum will be updated on Monday 1st June 2020. Maximum Temperature will reduce and humidity will increase from 2nd June.
NRL IR Satellite Image of 93A.INVEST ( UAC/ Potential Low Pressure)
Dated 30-05-2020 @ 1000 UTC ( 03.30 pm. IST) 
Caution: Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.
સાવચેતી: સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.
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Read Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 30th May 2020
Read Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 30th May 2020
Read Comment Policy– કમેન્ટ માટે માર્ગદર્શન
ઉપર ની બધી અલગ લિન્ક ક્લિક કરો. નવી વિન્ડો માં પેજ ખૂલશે
sir ecmwf pan navi apdet ma gsf rashato pakdyo
સર…વાવાઝોડું સુરત,મહારાષ્ટ્ર બાજુ ટકરાય એવી શક્યતાઓ વધતી જાય છે…windy પણ ધીમે ધીમે GFS મુજબ આવતુ જાય છે
Sir . Nava updet par thi banne modelo vavajoda ne maharastra par thi pasar thtu batave chhe .to su guj. Par thi khataro taliyo am samjavu ?
Good afternoon sir aje ni bhadhij modalono track Mumbai to s.gujarat no che. To Amare savcheti Rakhavi padse brobar… Sir ..
Sar 2 vavazoda ni vat thai rahi se sar kutch mate keva chans se rain na
2 vavazoda ni vaat nathi.
Oamn baju Depression chhe te ahi asar nahi kare… tene bhuli jaav.
Biji System Low pressure chhe je Kerala/Karnataka thi pashchime chhe.
Sir vadhu bhej kon khech che. Oman vari system k kerela vari?
Oman System purna thai jashe.
Somvar Rat Thi budhvar sudhi mumbai ma Bhare varsad nu alert apyu sathe heavy thunderstorm thase.
200 mm sudhi varsad padse mumbai ma ane prachnd gajvij sathe.
Have Kutch ni sakyata to save ochi Thai gai ne sir
Aje banne model sampi gaya
SIr prathamvar joyu ecmwf ne rasto badalavo padyo ….?
Sir Bhavngar baju varsad ni skyta khri
Media vara j fekafek Kari ne half kam bagadi nakhe che. Mane to aevu lage che ke media ne lidhe j systems Gujarat baju aavta pan dare che. Gai bhens pani me aa system pan Gujarat ma kai khas varsad aape aevu lagtu nathi Maharashtra mathi nikdi jase
sir… avi gyu ecm ..paka raste .now imd n ecm ekaj raste ..gfs ..thoduk vdhare niche jay chhe ..pachhi agad nathi jatu .
tropical ma updat avi gyi …ecm ni
sir lwo ke dipresan banaya pachi akj jagaya par ketalo time rhe ecmwf mujab sistam diydar ni nijik avta 58 ket pavan batave che
System kyarek kalak na 10 km ni speed agad chale kyarek 15 km toe kyarek 20 km ni speed thi.
Aney kyarek evu pan banne ke ekaj jagyuaye jakday jaat 12 kalk ke 24 kalak.
Nullschool and GFS are the same ? Different ? Or does Nullschool use GFS + NCEP model and accordingly predicts it’s data
GFS Model te NCEP/NWS banne US ni Agency nu chhe.
Atleast hve a to final thai gyu k Oman baju nai jai..
Gujarat ma officially chomasu besi jse aavta week ma…
ECMWF looks confident versus GFS.
By-d-way,
મામલો મેદાને પડયો છે!!
OMAN ni aama koi vaat j na hati
Haal Oman baju Depression chhe tene hisabey TV vara ve sau ne gotey chadavya chhe.
Ecmwf pn gsf na raste
Sir now ecmwf pan gfs na rashte halti pakdi have to final thy gayu kevay ne sir atyar ni update ma
Finally ECMF Gfs same juki gyu south gujarat maharashtra border pr hit krse cyclone.
As per todays different weather webside, there willnot be significant rainfall in saurastra except seashore in a week. Hope may change
System expectation krta vehli bni gyi ane imd mujb jadpthi strong pn thse atle South gujarat maharashtra baju jvana chance vdhi jay 6e
Sir porbandar & ranavav ma pela bov varsad thato. Hve to sav ocho thava mandyo che.. Anu su reason hse?
NO koi reason nathi
Sir,badha model jota avu lage chhe k badhaye ecmwf ne eklu padi didhu chhe.
Ecwmf ma 4th ni aaspas guj coast par land fall dekhade chhe jyare gfs ma 2nd aaspas mumbai pase land fall dekhade chhe. To kyu sachu ganay vadhu? Amphan cyclone vakhate kyu vadhu sachu htu ecwmf k gfs?
Abhyas karo and khyal avashe.. result.
Sir ecmwf track babate Vadhu sachot hoy chhe , Ane hal ecmwf Dwarka thi div vache landfall karave chhe , adikham chhe , joi ecmwf ni avnari update kevi rahe….
gya varse vayu cyclone ma pan last ma ecm. Jtwc Sathe Rai Vadhu sachot htu , GFS to khotkai gyu tu….
Sir imd bulletin ma low thay gyu ane 24 kalak ma depression thase ane te pachi na 24 kalak ma cyclonic storm thase tevu kahe che ane 3 june north Maharashtra ane gujarat pase aavse
Sir imd morning bulletin is good for gujarat state ane imd also said that on 3 rd june storm reach north Maharashtra and Gujarat so it is good sign for our state about heavy to heavy rain .right sir
Hello sir, jtwc e system ne 93(a) ganavi.
93 A no matlab shu thay. Plz ans….
Koi pan International Agency Monitor kare etle sharuvat ma 90 thi 99 sudhi number kram pramane aape. Arabian ma hoi to A and Bangad ma hoy toe B.
baaki nu ahi Satellite Image jovo cooment vancho and khyal aavi jashe.
sir aje sistaam na lokesan fikas thi jashe shajshudhi ma ecmwf mujab chal she avu lage che
Sir tv vada em kye 3/4 June thi gujrat ma chomasu besi jahe l low pressure ne lidhe thi
Te TV ni Speciality chhe !
Thank you sir Pan system direction kai baju ?
Gujarti ma vancho Akila ma and Sanj Smachar ma shu lakhyu chhe … Ahi aapel chhe.
LP pachhi WL zadap thi thashe evu lage chhe.
સર ગઇ સાલ વાયુ વાવાઝોડા વખતે મે તમને કોરામાં કપાસિયા મૂકવાનું પૂછ્યું હતું તમે આડકતરી રીતે સહમતી આપી હતી અને મારે 30વિઘામાં કોરા માં કપાસિયા ઉગી ગયા હતા આ પ્રશ્ન ઘણો વિકટ અને મુંજવણ ભર્યો છે મને ખ્યાલ છે કે તમારો જવાબ ઉપર ઘણા ખોટું અર્થઘટન કરી નાખે અને જોખમી નર્ણય પણ લઈ લે વરસાદ તો આવશે આ સિસ્ટમ માં પણ કેટલો તે ઘણું અઘરું છે જો સિસ્ટમ ડીપ ડિપ્રેશન માં ફેરવાય તો 70ટકા વાવણી ની શક્યતા ગણાય?
Aavati kal sudhi ma khyal aavi jashe… System track and Majbuti.
IMD aaje kahi didhu chhe ke zadapi Depression and tyar nbaad Cyclone
Sir, gay kale Savarkundala na Jabal, vijpadi ajubaju ma vavni layak varsad padyo. ..ane mara gamni north est baju pan saro varsad padyo.. To krankach ta LILIYA Di Amreli. .
સર
શુભ પ્રભાત, યુરોપીઅન મોડેલ સિસ્ટમ ને સૌરાસ્ટ્રા કચ્છ ગુજરાત માંથી પાસ થતી હોય, તેથી એવું લાગે કે WD ના સપોર્ટ થી એ આગળ વધે છે પણ અમેરિકન GFS મા એ મુંબઈ અથવા તો આપણા કિનારા સુધી આવી ને અટકી જાય છે, તો એના અટકવાનું કારણ પણ WD હોય શકે કે MJO (વિક્રમ madam ની કોમેન્ટ પ્રમાણે ) પણ ભાગ ભજવે, જો શક્ય હોય અને તમને GFS મા અહીં અટકી જવામાં કોઈ કારણ દેખાતું હોય તો સમજાવશો.
System atakti nathi pan North east baju ghani andad jaay chhe.
Sir.. Bane model ma haju ghano difference 6 su thay ae kahevu muskel 6
સર તમે વારંવાર કહેતા હોવ કે સિસ્ટમ ને ઉપલા લેવલ ના પવન ગાઈડ કરતા હોય છે તો પછી આ મોડલો બધા કેમ અલગ અલગ બતાવે સે તે બધા ને અલગ અલગ પવન દેખાતા હસે ઉપલા લેવલ માં
Darek Forecast Model start time ma je paristhiti na abhyas par nirbhar hoy. Biju ke Darek Model pot potani ganatri ni formula hoy je alag alag hoy chhe.
ECMWF Forecast taiyar karva ma vadhu var lage chhe.
WIndy na banne model ma start time ma shu paristhiti chhe te jovo etle andaj avi jashe.
Thanks sir
Hello Ashok sir, varsad aave to saru j che, bas cyclone jevu disaster na aave, aava epidemic conditions ma vadhu vadhare muskeli sarjashe….. hope for the best
Sar aa vavajoda sathe heavy rain na chance kahi sakay ?
Update fari vancho… sathe chhapaa ni link chhe te vancho
વાવાઝોડુ ગુજરાત ને કેવી અસર કરશે? Please ditel
Update fari thi vancho…. sathe Akila and Sanj Samachar ni update pan chhe…. vancho… vancho..
New update thenks sar aa sistam sorast kach ma chalse evu 70 tka gnay ke kem
sir trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies etle?te Kai rite jovanu?
WD upla level ma jovo wind chart ma . tema zukav sindh sudhi hato.
Sir WD no trough shindh Arab sudhi lambay chhe aa trough model ma Kai rite jovay?
700 hPa thi 500 hPa ma jovo
Thanks sir good new
Jsk. Sir. Thanks for new update.
Wel come monsoon 2020
Sir Aa varsh ma unalo tunko ane ocho garam rahyo tenu Lokdwon ke biju Koi karn hashe?
Sir tame akilama 93 (a) kidhu ano matlab su samjvo
JTWC ma 93A thi odkhay chhe. Haal comment vachya rakho… dhimey dhimey samjashe.
Sir Delhi ma avarnavar varsad padvanu Karan su? Hu long time thi mark karu chu. Ke tya garmi vadhe aetle Delhi and UP vistar ma varsad padto hoy chhe. Aapne to jealous feel thay Kem ke aapne to garmi ane bafara thi pareshan chie and tyana loko ne varsad na lidhe thandak madi jay che. Is it due to location? Please explain reason in brief. Biju tya varsad pade and garmi gati Jay to to chomasu aagad vadhvama dhimu padi jay. Kem ke garmi north India ma vadhu revi joie to pavan set Jaldi thay. One more news jema locha… Read more »
Delhi ma WD asar thi
Sir, Navi Update badal Khub khub Aabhaar.