Update Dated 1st October 2018
Meteorogical Conditions based on IMD Mid-Day Bulletin:
The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of Rajasthan, entire Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, some parts of East Uttar Pradesh, West & East Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat state & North Arabian Sea.
The withdrawal line of Southwest Monsoon now passes through Bahraich, Nowgong, Bhopal, Indore, Bharuch, Veraval, lat. 21.0°N/long. 65.0°E and lat. 21.0°N/ long. 60.0°E.
Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from remaining parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and North Arabian Sea, some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra during next 2-3 days.
A Low Pressure area is likely to develop over Southeast Arabian sea around 6th October. It is likely to intensify into a Depression and move Northwestwards during subsequent 48 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into Southeast & Central Arabian Sea from 07th October, 2018 on wards. Fishermen at deep sea areas of Southeast & Central Arabian Sea are advised to return to coast before 07th October.
Current Weather Conditions on 1st October 2018
The weather has remained dry and sunny during the last few days. The Maximum Temperature has increased and is above normal on 30th September as under:
Ahmedabad Maximum Temperature was 37.4 C and was 2 C above normal.
Rajkot Maximum Temperature was 37.9 C and was 2 C above normal.
Amreli Maximum Temperature was 37.4 C and was 2 C above normal.
Bhuj Maximum Temperature was 40.2 C and was 4 C above normal.
Advance Indication: 7th October to 14th October 2018
There is a likelihood of a development of a Low Pressure over Arabian Sea during this period. The System is expected to strengthen significantly. The Forecast track is currently uncertain since it is oscillating on a Daily basis from Gujarat to Pakistan to Oman at at times towards Yemen, depending upon various Forecast Models and Forecast Runs. Updates will be published as and when there is better clarity on the Forecast outcome.
આગોતરું એંધાણ : 7ઓક્ટોબર થી 14 ઓક્ટોબર 2018
અરબી સમુદ્ર માં એક લો પ્રેસર થવાની શક્યતા જણાય છે અને ક્રમશ મજબૂત સિસ્ટમ ની શક્યતા છે. વિવિધ ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ તેમજ દર રોજ ના ફોરકાસ્ટ રન મુજબ સંભવિત સિસ્ટમ નો ફોરકાસ્ટ ટ્રેક બહુ ઝોલા ખાય છે જે ક્યારેક ગુજરાત તરફ તો ક્યારેક પાકિસ્તાન તરફ તો ક્યારેક ઓમાન તરફ અને ક્યારેક યેમેન તરફ ગતિ કરે છે. જેમ જેમ નિશ્ચિતતા દેખાશે તેમ અપડેટ થશે
Caution:Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC/Government Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.
સાવચેતી:સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.
Sir Vadodara padra ma jordar pavan sathe varsad
Vadodara ma atyare thunderstorm jode thando pawan chale Che pan varsad nathi
Vadodara thi south ma jordar thunderstorms che.
Sir 5 tarikhe arab ma and 8 tarikh bob ma low pressure banse right imd anusar
સર ગુજરાતી મિડિયા વાળા ને ખોરાક મલી ગયો અત્યાર થી વાવાઝોડું બની ગયું ટીવી માં
Sir windy ma ane Google whether ma 10 October ane 11 October ma gujrat ma varsad batave che any rain 50% wind speed 18 21 batave shu avu bani sake
Haju ghana divas chhe ele fer far thai shakey.
jambusar dist.bharuch khub j garmi ane bafara baad 3:10 thi thunder strom sathe varsad chalu vatavaran ma thabdak prasri gai ne kheti ne jiwat dan malyu.
સર તા ૧૧/૧૦ માં અરબ તથા બંગાળ ની ખાડી માં એક સાથે લો દેખાય છે અરબ મા15N-62E and Bob મા 15N-81E તો બન્ને એક બીજાને ને ખેંચી જાય
Banney ne je kai jor karvanu hoy te pachhi tamey jovo chho te shthiti batavey chhe.
Surat ma saro varasad che
Jambusar na gramya vistar Kundhal MA dhimidhare varsad Calu 3:10pm
All models forcasting for track of system .average track which suggest that system may be passes through any points between sindh to kutch region.there will be systen is in a low pressure form…no one forecasting cyclone or dd at that stage…so why people and media afraid other people who are just believe for them???
Mis-information vadhu and hakikat ochhi. Aa general jagruttata aavi chhe te anusandhaney chhe.
લો થાય અને તે પાકિસ્તાન બાજુ જતું રહે તો
કેટલા ટકા શકયતા રહે ગુજરાત તરફ વરસાદ આવવા ની?
Moti system na puchhada pan varsad aapey
સર ચોમાસા ને શિયાળા ની વચ્ચે એકાદ મહિનો તડકો ને ગરમી કેમ પડે
vadad ochha hoy etle tadka ne hisabe garmi padey.
Jay Khodal
Sir saurastr ma varsad aavse k nay a kaho bas
Have ekj aadhar 6
Haju kai nakki nathi… thodu jaaju aavey pan haal Low thayu nathi… 6 tarikh aaspaas pictur clear thay.
Sir gsf no track change thayo have tame kaik update karo to final thay
સર lmd આજે ચોમાસું આગળ વધ્યું એવું જાહેર કર્યું
Chomasu agad vadhu ke choasu withdrawal vadhu thayu ?
Dear ashok patel bob ma ek navu vavajodu batave che tropical ma date9 gfs modal have vavajoda ni samay gado avi gayo
Vavajoda a chomasu besva ni pela ane chomasu utarta j kem vadhare bane che
Tnx
CHomasu puru thaay tyare Northeast Monsoon bestu hoy.
ગુડ આફટરનુન સર. Geo potential height જોવા નુ રમકડું હોય તો આપજો (મેનુ મા)
Windy ma chhe… Menu chhe temathi jova madey. Pressure ne badale geopotential select karo.
COLA ma 500 hPA ma joy shakay
Baaki IMd ma WRF ma chhe http://nwp.imd.gov.in/wrf27pro.php
mostly windy nu ECMWF system tracking ma litle bit diffrence sathe sachu hoy che. atyar sudhini je pan system bani eni pramane.
atyare IMD na MSLP ne IMD precipitation ma pan antar jova mali rahyu che.
tropical tidbit dar 6 kalake track badli kadhe che and weather online pan same rite 6 kalake track badle che.
jya sudhi low develope nahi thay tya sudhi kai kehvay nahi….IMD nu precipitaion forecast jota lage che k saurastra ma saro evo varsad thase. aa varsad pani ni acha puri kari sakse.
હજુ બધા ફોરકાસ્ટ મોડલ મા મતમતાંતર છે Windy મા Ecmfw /gfs મુજબ સીસ્ટમ ઓમાન તરફ જઈ રહી છે જ્યારે Tropical tidbits મુજબ સિસ્ટમ 15 તારીખે દક્ષિણ પાકિસ્તાન ઉપર આવે એવુ બતાવે છે
Jsk.Sir. Pradip bhai & badha mitro 7 tarikh sudhi magaj ne bagadva nu raheva diyo ane ahak na thav.
sir ventusky parmane …. 12 sudhi ma gujrat ni bajuma ave ..chhe… air pressur 996…991….ajubaju…..
aa sistem vrsad lavse ?
Haju ghana divas baaki chhe
Hello sir
Mitro ne namra vinanti k jo tamaro prasna pusva yogya hoy toj puso baki 99 % javab bijani comments mathi mali jase. Khota su sir ne heran kari aapdo ane temno loy ukado karavvo. Kaik navu thase eatale sir tartaj upadste aapse. Aapda karta aapdi chinta sir ne vadhare 6.
Sir north gujarat baju pavan bahu ochoche jena karane baf bahu lage che pavan kyare vadhare vadhare?
Hamana garmi raheshe
Sir amuk loko system ne Gujarat mathi hakva bov utavda se ane am lage se k a app ma sakdu jovi e saru hse amm pan eloko e low nu pressure nai jota ke 919 sudhi posi jai se a ketlu niksan kri sake ano.koi vichr nai krtu Gujarat par lavva ma ment krese. Pn karsi a lend fall thse to bhi Gujarat ne thodo ghano labh mle ana thi santos mani baki koik vadil ne pusjo 82 nu vava jodu a ave to ana krta vdhre wind speed avi aske
B positive Aamare to varsad aavva noj che
*sistem Gujrat Aavche to bhari thi Aatibhare varsad padche
* sistem pakistan Jahe to toy Madhiyam Varsad padche Kantha na vistra ma
* sistem Oman Yaman Jahe to tena Pusadiya vadado thi Sutasavay Japta thi lay ne Hadvo padche.!
barobar ne..?
IMD ni cyclogenesis report je 27.09.2018 na roj issue thayi hati ema aavu mention karu hatu. http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/eroc.pdf Some models (IMD GFS and GEFS) do not suggest any cyclogenesis during next two weeks.However, models like NCUM, ECMWF & NEPS indicates formation of low pressure area (LPA) overSoutheast Arabian Sea around 5th October with its gradual intensification into depression/cyclone during 7-10th October. it is likely to move west-northwestward towards Gulf of Aden. The Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) does not indicate any zone of cyclogenesis during next 10 days. Considering all the above, there is moderate to high probability for formation of depression… Read more »
Sar skymet konu 6e ne Ane te agency Khali seva kare see pashi te kamay 6e?
Te Commercial Agency chhe. Forecast and Data supply kare chhe. And grahak pan chhe.
જય સ્વામિનારાયણ
શું આ સાલ ચોમાસુ નિશ્ચિત તારીખ થી મોડું વીદાય લેશે
Chomsa ye viday lai lidhi chhe Kutch North Gujarat, Central Gujarat and Saurashtra na mota bhag mathi.
Havey Verval thi Bhavnagar patti baaki chhe and Bharush thi Dakshine Gujarat baju baaki chhe.
Sir 10mi aaju baju koi WD chhe?
Je kai hoy te Forecast Model ne khabar hoy etle te ganatri ma levatu hoy.
Hu kai magaj dodavato nathi. Aapada maate forecast model taiyar bhajiya aape alag alag dukane thi lai ne Meman ne aapvana.
Sir ecmwf ma Oman baju ane gfs ma gujarat baju sir paribalo ne aadhare kaik aagotaru andaj aapo karan ke mandavi upadavani chhe gam chauta ta kutiyana dis porbandar please reply me
Havey tamey kai nakki na kari shako. Na upadi shako ke na raah joiy shako.
etle Aagotaru velu aapel jethi nirnay kari shako. tyare time hato.
નમસ્કાર સર
દરેક મીત્રો ની કોમેન્ટ વાચતા એવું લાગે છે કે અરબી મા જે સીસ્ટમ બનવા છે તેની આતુરતા પુરવક રાહ જોવે છે સકાયમેટે આજે કિધુ સીસ્ટમ ઓમાન બાજુ જાય છે વાવાઝોડુ થાસે પવન ની સ્પીડ પણ વધારે હસે
system ni asar thi gujarat ma ane temay khash kari ne saurashtra ma varsad avse.matra no khyal haju tran divas bad low pressure thay pachi ave.tamam model jeva k ECMWF,GFS,CMC,ICON,NAVGEM,JMA,WW3 majbut system banse evu kahe chhe.ecmwf sivay na tamam model gujarat ma vadhti ochhi matra ma system ni asar thi varsad padse evo sanket ape chhe.
Jay mataji sir….dang district ma aaje bhare vavaozoda ane gajvij sathe varsad thyo to ae kya paribar ne lidhe hse…AA week ma tya biji var varsad thyo…local clouds na lidhe hse varsad tya ?
Tyan haju chomasu viday nathi lidhu
Hello sar
Vavajodu kyare aavse? Have to Ani vat joye baki Kay thase nay
6 tarikh thi jovanu… tyan sudhi bhuli jaav !
Sir vindi ma oman ma jay che .
Sir, windy ma to pressure Oman taraf fantatu dekhay che 11 tarikh ma
Sir aaj savar kundala dhari ne side thandar claud hata to varasad varase kharo aama???
Chomasu viday rekha Verval thi Bhavnagar sudhi pahochi chhe.
Havey aa rekha thi North ma Mavathu kahevay.
Sir. Date 5 thi 8 vache chuta chavaya varsad ni sakyata che
Sir pela low pachi wmlow depression dip depression pachi Cs to su aa kriya etli jadpi thase? hju system bani nthi ne atyar thi gote chdya che badha
Jagrut ta vadhva thi vadhu ahak sua bhgavey chhe.
Pahela je janta te aavi manosthiti bhogavata… havey badha Mitro ne kamey lagadya chhe….. aamey paani vagar biju shu kaam chhe !
Sir. Mara andaj muzab samany low thay Ane sastam tiyaj thapp thay jaay aevu bani shake khra.
Toe tamaro andaj thapp kari diyo !
Saheb savarkundla ek zaptu padiyu Sanjay na 4-00 kale Ane bafaro khubaj vadhi gayo che to Kai arbi ni asar che koi Sara samachar che
CHomasu viday thayu chhe Most Saurashtra and Veraval thi Bhavnagar sudhi baaki chhe.
Baaki haju kai nava juni nathi
Sir system bane pachhi jya bhej saro Hoy te baju system khechay avu bane?
System track maate paribad ni vaat ahi karel chhe.
Sir kal thi could vadhare banse??????
Tnx
ECMWF and GFS both are contradicting about the Cyclone. When can we have the exact path?
JOYA rakhvanu !
patel sir amuk loko kahe chhe k aa to otra chitra ni garmi pade chhe to aa otra chitro atle shu ?
Haal Hathi yo Nakshatra chale chhe je 27 September thi 10 October sudhi chhe.
Uttar Falguni toe Hathiya pahela puru thayu Nakshtra.
And 11 October thi Chitra Nakshatra besashe.
Dar saal same tarikh hoy. (kyarel 1 divas no farak hoy)
Cola Ma calar jato yahiyo
sir aa vavajoda nu nam loban hase ne? to te kya dese raykhu nam?
Aa kai puja karvi chhe ? tee LOBAN kaho chho ?
Havey koi vavazodu baney toe tenu naam LUBAN and te naam OMAN deshe rakyu chhe.
સર ગરમિ મા કયારે રાહત મળશે કપાસ સુકાઇ ટેમપરે શર ને હીસાબે
Ek var Commnet post karni… jawab ni raah jovi… ahi online nathi…. time madey tyare reply thay.
Vavad na hoy tyan sudhi vadhu garmi rahe.
અશોકભાઈ કિયા રે આવે વાવાઝોડું સોરાષ્ટ માં આવશે અથવા વરસાદ આવશે બેમાં થી શું થાશે
Vavazodu thay te pahela Low Pressure thay. Pachhi badhu nakki thay