18th May 2020 @ 8.30 pm Update
Super Cyclonic Storm ‘AMPHAN’ (pronounced as UM-PUN) over Westcentral Bay of
Bengal: Cyclone Warning for West Bengal and north Odisha coasts: Orange Message.
FROM: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
BULLETIN NO.: 21 (BAY OF BENGAL 01/2020)
TIME OF ISSUE: 2030 HOURS IST DATED: 18.05.2020
IMD બુલેટિન નંબર 21: 2030 કલાક IST તારીખ 18-05-2020 મુજબ
‘સુપર સાયક્લોન’ ‘AMPHAN’ (‘અમ-પન’) મધ્ય પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ ની ખાડી પર : પશ્ચિમ બંગાળ અને નોર્થ ઓડિશા કિનારા માટે સાયક્લોન ની ચેતવણી : ઓરેન્જ મેસેજ
indian_1589817902
Status:
The Super Cyclonic Storm ‘AMPHAN’ is located at 14.6N, 86.4E. The winds blowing 230-240 kms/hour and gusting up to 265 kms/hour. The System is expected to track Northerly and then North Northeastwards towards West Bengal next two days. JTWC has issued Tropical Cyclone Warning No. 10. The wind speed on International scales is 145 knots ( 268 kms/hour on 1 minute average wind speeds basis. IMD has a 3 minutes average basis). NRL has 901 Millibar Central Pressure.
JTWC Tropical Cyclone 01B (AMPHAN) Warning No. 10 ( Super Cyclonic Storm “AMPHAN”)
Dated 18th May 2020 @ 1500 UTC ( 08.30 pm IST)
NRL IR Satellite Image of Super Cyclonic Storm ‘AMPHAN’
Dated 18-05-2020 @ 1400 UTC ( 07.30 pm. IST)
Caution: Please refer/rely on IMD/RSMC Bulletins/Advisories for Storms & Weather related matter.
સાવચેતી: સ્ટોર્મ કે હવામાન અંગે ની માહિતી માટે ભારતીય હવામાન ખાતા/ગવર્મેન્ટ ના બુલેટીન/સુચના પર નિર્ભર રહેવું.
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Read Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 14th May 2020
Read Forecast in Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 14th May 2020
Read Comment Policy– કમેન્ટ માટે માર્ગદર્શન
ઉપર ની બધી અલગ લિન્ક ક્લિક કરો. નવી વિન્ડો માં પેજ ખૂલશે
Mara mte system track west saurstra & kuchh baju dariya baju rese , majboot hase to bypass thase vayu ni jem nabdi banse to andar avse uac low Bani ne…
Sir bany model Juda disha ma jay chy to tamaru anuman su kahe chy gujrat no varo avse ke nahi janvo tamari rahe bathachye abhar
System babat ma ECMWF vadhu sachu padtu hoy.
Sir imd mid day bulletin indicate that a fresh law pressure area south est arebian sea around 31 may so it is final this is depends on ecmwf right sir
IMD GFS ma 925 hPa ma similar location chhe.
Sir Jayant Sarkare IMD Gujarat 29 & 30 me na saurashtra na dariyakatha vistaro ma varsad ni agahi kri .
Sar tame bapor ni update ma chokasta avse evu kahelu ?
Pan tamara email address ni chokkasta nu shu ?
Sir cyclone ma havanu pressure jetlu nichu hoy aetli pavan ni zadap vadhu hoy?
yes
sir..MJO na chella pichhda ..GFS mujab face 1 ma vartul ni vdhare najik aaavya … sistem adi adi ne jase ..evu lage
jyare GEFS mujab thodak chheta jay chhe .. face 1 ma
નમસ્કાર સર,ecmwf ને કોરોના ની બીક નથી સંભવીત સીસ્ટમ ને દક્ષિણ ગુજરાત (મહારાષ્ટ્ર મોહમયી નગરી) તરફ નમાવે છે.
ECMWF varo GFS ne najik nathi avava deto !
તોય મુલાકાત તો કરવી જ પડશે!!
Cyclone hoy tyare Kai disha ma varsad vadhare nu jor and Kai disha ma Pawan nu jor vadhare hoy Ke chare baju sarkhu hoy.
System Center jovo and pavano kyanthi avey chhe te jovo.
normally System thi Dakshin and Dakshin Pashchim baju varsad vadhu hoy.
Sir. Law system banavanu location Ecmwf &Gfs bane juda batave che. To teno track location pramane alag hoi sake?
System baney te ekaj thavani hoy… Sau Sau nu Model potani System na banavati hoy.
Sir lage che ke ecmwf ane gsf 2 divas ma 1 raste avi jase?
Sir, aavnari (arbi vadi) system babte aap kyare updates aap so…
Hu LGAKN
Sir aa news vaday gote chadi gya chhe …
AMPHAN Vavajodu 30 may na roj aavse em kye chhe.
Sir Chomasu kya puchyu chhe A&N thi agad vadhyu k nay te janavva vinanti.
Ahi Menu ma jovo
Monsoon Onset Map aapel chhe.
Indian cost mate Arb na cyclone no khatro mote bhage keral thi maharashtra na area karta Gujarat region ne vadhu kem hoy chhe?
Evu kai nathi hotu.
Hello sir… good morning..sir…tame jem kidhu…ke… afternoon ni…upate….ma finally khabar padi jase…je aa… system vise… please your… answer… thank you
.sir…
sir aje night update ma Ecmwf system no track change thyo ame hve valsad kora che.
sir apde niche thi upr Mumbai pase chomasa pehla system ave te nabdi padi j jai che ane arbi ma system hoi etle movies ni jem twist and turn to hoy j.
Sir cyclone ne aagal vadhva sea tempacher normal ketlu jovi..?
Jem vadhu tem saru… 28C thi vadhu normal 29/30 hoy kyarek 32 sudhi je hamana BOB ma hatu
Sir have GFS pan ecmwf ma raste avtu dekhay rahyu chhe….!
ECMWF ne CORONA ni bik chhe etle te vari GFS thi thodi chheti bhage chhe !
avu pan banne ke banne ne vache no rasto lay shake, to sir varsad no labh Gujarat ne male ke nay
GFS najik avavani try kare chhe pan ECMWF ne CORONA ni bik chhe etle te fari thodu modhu fervey chhe.
Aaje Bapor ni update ma vadhu chokkasta avi jashe.
hi sir
banne modlo thoda thoda pase aavigya atle have vavajodu gujrat baju aave e paku ganvanu ne
Evu abhyas parthi lagyu ke jya sudhi monsoon wind set na thaya hoy tya sudhi koy pan system khas kai ukade nay.. Because dry air…
From which date Monsoon will start?
IMD ne khyal hoy.
Hu LGAKN
Vadhu vigat ahi chhe http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?page_id=19592
Monsoon maharashtra sudhi na pahochyu hoy ne,Upcoming system jo gujarat region ma saro varsad aape toe pan te pre-monsoon j ganay ne?
Yes
Sar aa sistam arbivari banvani che te kay baju chalse enu anuman kay dt ma nakki thay biju arbi vari sistam gujrat ma aave to keral gova maharasht ni mor varsad aavijayne te primonsoon gnay
Varasad pre-monsoon ganay… jo Kerala ke Goa ke Maharashtra baaki hoy toe
Aaje j jaanva madyu. Cyclones in Southern hemisphere rotate clockwise and those in Northern hemisphere rotate counterclockwise.
Thanks 2 Coriolis effect!
Very interesting in many ways how nature works !
yes
Sar jo vavajodu bane ane a oman baju Jay to Gujarat mate somasu nabadu ganay khari
Etlo Bhej waste thay ne India maate
Sar cola to Fari gayu
sir ecmwf sisatam tark babate sachot hoy che 3 divas thi veraval pashe batave che avu bane ke gsf chachu padu hoy
3 divas nathi thaya haju
(Deleted link by Moderator)
આ વિશે આપનુ મંતવ્ય મહત્વનું છે,જવાબ આપશો સર.
Windy banne model jovo
Sir as per imd conditions are becoming favourable for South West monsoon on 27 may .it is good indicate for kerala for monsoon and india.
Sir
ecmwf pramane arbi ma majboot vavajodi batave che ane te dt 3 ma saurashtra na diu veraval najik aave evu batave che sistam treck babat ecmwf vadhare sashot che to saurashtr ma aavvani ketla taka sakyata ganay ?
GFS thodu sharmay toe sachu ganay.
Sir news vala nay avadiye, last vavajodau somanath thi pela turn Mari lidho to
સર ટીવી વાળા ભલે કહે કે વાવાઝોડુ આવશે
પરંતુ તમો કહો એ ફાઇનલ હોય એટલે અમે ખેડુક ભાઇ ઓ તમારી નવી અપડેટ ની રાહ જોઈ રહ્યા છીએ
2020 નું ચોમાસું વર્ષ સારું રહે તેવી ઈશ્વર પાસે પ્રાર્થના
Abhyas chalu rakhay.
Aaje Ek Chhapa na Tantri phone par puchhta hata. Temne windy.com nu kahel etle Teo ne khyal aavyo ke avar navar fer far haju chalu hoy.
Sir upper level nu pressure Kai rite jovanu?
Darek level na pressure j jovo chho. Jem ke Surface ma Pressure jovo chho tevi ritey.
અને સર આ windy ના Ecmwf અને Gfs ના ફોરકાસ્ટ રન 2020-05-25T00-00-00z મુજબ છે.
Sir ecmwf ni bapor ni update ma hji pan landfall gujarat par j ave chhe to tamara mate have ketla chance ganva joiye…?
GFS jo teni taraf aavey thodu jaju toe final.
જય શ્રીકૃષ્ણ સર. પહેલા સોરી માગી લઉ છું સર. પણ તમો મારા પ્રશ્ર્ન વિષે તમને યોગ્ય લાગે તો આગોતરૂ એધાન આપવા વિનંતી છે મારી સર. હવે મારા બે પ્રશ્ન છે. પ્રશ્ન (1) windy ECMWF માં 925 hpa માં 3 જૂન 9 Pm. 952 મિલીબાર પ્રેસર ની સીસ્ટમ વેરાવળ ના કાંઠા પાસે દક્ષિણ અરબીમાં સીસ્ટમ બતાવે છે. પ્રશ્ન (2) windy GFS માં 925 hpa માં 3 જુન ,9 Pm.1004 મિલીબાર પ્રેસર ની સીસ્ટમ મેંગ્લોર પાસે પશ્ચિમ અરબીમાં બતાવે છે. તો સર આ windy ના બંને મોડેલનો માંથી કયા મોડેલ ઉપર ભરોસો રાખવો ??? તો તમોને મારા પ્રશ્રનો યોગ્ય લાગે તો તમોને… Read more »
Farak chhe and jamin ma bhon ek j chhe. Bhon najik aavashe tyare sidhu toe thavu j padey.
Model najik aavey etle final samjo… tyan sudhi Jo and Toe
Ok Sir.
નમસ્કાર સર
અરબી વારી સિસ્ટમ GFS મોડલ બતાવતુ નથી તો કેટલા % સમજવુ ….
બીજા મોડલ બતાવે છે
GFS pan batave toj sachu
ECMWF pramane system 3 tarikhe veraval najik batave che jyare GFS pramane system 3 tarikhe Low pressure j batave che. haji to bhu changes thase
Still too early to judge but it’s ECMWF vs GFS and IMD at the moment.
ECMWF showing Pressure of 950 hpa when cyclone nears landfall is not good !
Expect further changes and the picture will be clearer by 28th May!
Sir arebian sea ma 2 system bane aevu lage che to 2 mathi kay vadhare majbut thase tamara anubhav pramane ?
Low pressure thay tyare enu location kyan chhe tena par nirbhar hoy
Sir TV news vara ne corona baad cyclone na news mali gya jika jik chalu thai gya 3 june gujarat ma 2 cyclone ek sathe avse .
hji disha nakki nathi thay eni pela news vara chalu.
Jsk sir south baju Bob ma cyclone bane tyare e baju varsad bov hoy and arbi ma cyclone bane to gujrat ma varsad kem ocho thai and na pan thai
BOB System maate Chomasu dhari hoy chhe jena par te chaley chhe.
Arabian Sea baju vadhu varsad thato hoy chhe… parantu te Dakshin Gujareat sudhi.
Kerala thi South Gujarat sudhi varsad vadhu hoy chhe.
Saurashtra/Kutch sudhi pahonchta nichovay gayo hoy ARbian Sea waro varsad.
Hello sir, aa je arbi system thavani chee…teno track and disa kyare..sure thay…48/72 kalak..sudhi
yes… two model najik hova joiye. biju ke 24/48 kalak nishan fagvu na joiye
Good afternoon…sir low pressure and high pressure ma antar su ane low ma cyclone Thai to sir high pressure ma su Thai…
Low ma pavano tena center baju jata hoy etle vatavaran ma vadad thay.
High pressure ma pavan bahar fenkay etle vatavaran chokhu thay.
Sir Tamara forecast pela j akila ane divybhaskar ma pan cyclone news aavi gya Aema to Gujarat na dariya kinare 3 tarikhe takray aevu aapyu chhe. Have to media aava masala vara news mate Bau advanced thai gyu chhe. Skymet pan ke che.
Saru
OMG really ECMWF Oman baju je cyclone bane che ema 50 inch thi pan vadhare varsad batave che pan badhu dariya ma j waste thay chhe. Aano half rain pan Kutch ma padi jay aakha monsoon season ma to Kutch Dharti to tat khedu harkhay Jay ane kutchi madu khus thay. Koi aa 2 mathi 1 system pan Kutch ma aavie Kutch jova Kyoki Kutch nahi dekha to kuch nahi dekha. Aam pan ame varsad mate tarsi e chie dar vakhte Aetle Ame cyclone thi aavse varsad to Aene pan samaiyu Kari ne vadhavi lesu fulgar thi swagat che.
Kyu ECMWF joyu ? and Forecast Run kyo ?
Forecast Run etle start Date & time
Can Western disturbance act like a Magnet to attract the system towards it ? Or both have no relationship between each other.
WD is Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation and System is also guided by Pressure in Upper Atmosphere ( Called Ridges.. meaning High Pressure)
At times WD deeps Southwards and there is interaction with the System.
sir ..windy ma 3 june sudhi .ecm vara 2 sistem ane gfs vara 1 sistem btave ..
ana sivay oman … iran ..ane.. pak. ma pan ..WD na low btave chhe …. 998mb na..
te jota arabian vari sistem gujrat baju namse !!
Pak/Rajastha border par Low hoy j chhe aava time ma
Sir BOB ma anti cyclone bane che aavta week ma?
Hello sir good morning…sir tamari update no wait kari rahya chiiye…kyare aavase… please answer me..sir… thank you
Vancho ahi http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?page_id=19592
Sir,ekey var avu banyu che k 2 cyclone one by one ek j jagya a landfall thaya hoy
Pehlu thay ane pachi biju 3-4 divas ma thyu hoy
Internationally evu banel hoy divaso thoda vadhare farak hoy.