{"id":8782,"date":"2015-06-17T21:55:37","date_gmt":"2015-06-17T16:25:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=8782"},"modified":"2023-06-25T09:04:37","modified_gmt":"2023-06-25T03:34:37","slug":"weak-el-nino-struggling-to-strengthen-southern-oscillation-index-not-in-sync-with-sst-of-nino-3-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=8782","title":{"rendered":"Weak El Nino Struggling To Strengthen – Southern Oscillation Index Not In Sync With Nino 3.4 SST"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Nino Update on 17th June 2015<\/h3>\n

Full fledged EL Nino was confirmed at the end of March 2015 when the five consecutive 3 monthly seasons had ONI index of +0.5 C or higher. It has been a weak El nino till date.<\/h3>\n

March, April & May 2015 SST anomaly for Nino3.4 region is used to calculate the ONI Index for MAM as\u00a0+0.7\u00baC.<\/h3>\n

As per NOAA Officially El Nino is declared as per conditions laid down and shown in ONI Index graph below:<\/h3>\n

El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/h3>\n

\"ONI_MAM_2015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Classification of El Nino:<\/h3>\n

Weak El Nino: ONI Index +0.5\u00baC\u00a0to 0.9\u00baC<\/h3>\n

Moderate El Nino: ONI Index +1.0\u00baC\u00a0to 1.4\u00baC<\/h3>\n

Strong El nino: +1.5\u00baC\u00a0to 1.9\u00baC<\/h3>\n

Very Strong El nino: +2.0\u00baC and above<\/h3>\n

As per classification a weak El Nino exist till date since the last ONI Index for MAM 2015 was +0.7\u00baC\u00a0which is below +1.0\u00baC. Most International forecasters maintain that this El Nino is expected to become moderate and ultimately a strong El nino. This means that the ONI Index has to rise to above +1.5\u00baC. However, Southern Oscillation Index has been increasing from a negative zone and the SOI value has increased to above zero and is in the neutral zone recently.<\/h3>\n

Currently the two parameters are out of Sync with one another. This could be a temporary blip and should be monitored.<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values<\/h2>\n

Queensland Government – The Long Paddock<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

SOI values for 17 Jun 2015<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/caption>\n

\n

Average for last 30 days<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/th>\n

\n

2.29<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Average for last 90 days<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/th>\n

\n

-5.96<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Daily contribution to SOI calculation<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/th>\n

\n

-1.69<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Monthly average SOI values<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/caption>\n

\n

March<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/th>\n

\n

-10.67<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

April<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/th>\n

\n

-3.08<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

May<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/th>\n

\n

-13.11<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/h3>\n

As per BOM, Australia:<\/h3>\n
\n

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was in the negative zone at the end of May 2015 and during the last two weeks has climbed up to above zero and has a positive value in the neutral zone. The latest 30-day SOI value from BOM-Australian Government for period ending\u00a0June 15th June 2015 is +1.5<\/span>\u00a0which denotes neutral zone.<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BOM – 30 Days Moving SOI<\/h3>\n

\"soi30_170615\"<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Nino Update on 17th June 2015 Full fledged EL Nino was confirmed at the end of March 2015 when the five consecutive 3 monthly seasons had ONI index of +0.5 C or higher. It has been a weak El Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8782\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}