JTWC TC Warning No. 13 Text:<\/h3>\nWTIO31 PGTW 120300\r\nMSGID\/GENADMIN\/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI\/\/\r\nSUBJ\/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 013\/\/\r\nRMKS\/\r\n1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 013 \r\n 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n ---\r\n WARNING POSITION:\r\n 120000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 86.5E\r\n MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS\r\n POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM\r\n POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE\r\n PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 86.5E\r\n ---\r\n FORECASTS:\r\n 12 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 121200Z --- 18.6N 85.3E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG\/ 09 KTS\r\n ---\r\n 24 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 130000Z --- 20.0N 84.1E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND\r\n VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG\/ 10 KTS\r\n ---\r\n 36 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 131200Z --- 21.8N 83.1E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND\r\n VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG\/ 09 KTS\r\n ---\r\n EXTENDED OUTLOOK:\r\n 48 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 140000Z --- 23.5N 82.3E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND\r\n ---\r\nREMARKS:\r\n120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC \r\nWALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A \r\n112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN \r\nRING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON \r\nDEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 \r\nKNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM \r\nHAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING \r\nEXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF \r\nTHE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND THIS STR, MAKING LANDFALL \r\nNORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS \r\nEXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT \r\n12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, ALTHOUGH THE \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ERC MAY HAMPER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. \r\nAFTER TAU 12, A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LAND \r\nINTERACTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH MORE RAPID EROSION AFTER \r\nLANDFALL, LEADING TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE \r\nAVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO \r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO \r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS \r\n56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.\/\/\r\nNNNN<\/pre>\n <\/p>\n
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NOTE: RSMC\/IMD New Delhi is the Official Agency for monitoring North Indian Cyclones. Refer Rely on IMD\/RSMC Bulletins\/Advisories.<\/strong>
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![\"WUBLAST_121013_0300z_Phailin\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/WUBLAST_121013_0300z_Phailin.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E_0300z\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E_0300z.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E_0300z_vis\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E_0300z_vis.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E_0300z_vapor\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-174N-865E_0300z_vapor.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"io0213_121013_13\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/io0213_121013_13.gif\")
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