Enso Status on 5th January 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n By the end of December 2025, the ongoing La Ni\u00f1a signal is two months old. Based on the forecast trend of Ni\u00f1o-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, the development of a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a during the remaining part of the Indian winter season appears unlikely and, in practical terms, not possible. With the Indian winter concluding by February 2026, there is insufficient time for the required persistence of La Ni\u00f1a conditions to be achieved.<\/p>\n Few Agencies are even indicating a shift towards El Ni\u00f1o during 2026. However, it is too early since the current La Ni\u00f1a thresh hold should first change to Enso neutral.<\/p>\n Two consecutive La Ni\u00f1a thresholds have been attained so far:<\/p>\n SON 2025 (September\u2013October\u2013November):<\/strong> ONI = \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/p>\n<\/li>\n OND 2025 (October\u2013November\u2013December):<\/strong> ONI = \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n These values confirm that La Ni\u00f1a threshold conditions have been met for two overlapping three-month seasons.<\/p>\n According to criteria defined by NOAA<\/span><\/span>, a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a event requires five consecutive overlapping three-month periods<\/strong> with ONI values at or below \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/p>\n With SON<\/strong> and OND 2025<\/strong> accounting for the first two qualifying periods, the remaining three seasons\u2014NDJ, DJF, and JFM (2025\u201326)<\/strong>\u2014would also need to maintain La Ni\u00f1a threshold conditions. Current forecasts do not support such sustained cooling through all these periods.<\/p>\n ONI data referenced in this analysis are sourced from the Climate Prediction Center of CPC<\/span><\/span> under the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS<\/span><\/span>).<\/p>\n The CPC has recently updated its climatological base period to 1996\u20132025<\/strong> as part of its routine five-year revision cycle. This revised climatology was formally adopted in January 2026<\/strong> and has resulted in minor revisions to recent ONI values<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Based on the updated climatology and NOAA\u2019s official classification criteria, it is expected that the Indian winter of 2025\u201326 (December 2025 to February 2026)<\/strong> will conclude before a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a is recorded<\/strong>, if it can materializes at all. Although two La Ni\u00f1a thresholds have been briefly achieved, forecasts indicate that these conditions are unlikely to persist for the required five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons<\/strong>. Consequently, from both a historical and operational perspective, this period is expected to be classified as ENSO-neutral<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a division of NOAA\u2019s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).<\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a is present.* Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -1.47 at the end of December 2025 and was +3.95 on 4th January 2026 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +8.05 on 4th January 2026. The monthly values are in neutral zone. La Ni\u00f1a continues in the tropical Pacific. The weekly Ni\u00f1o3.4 SST index was \u22120.91 \u00b0C for the week ending 21 December 2025, consistent with La Ni\u00f1a, with values fluctuating near the threshold since mid-to-late September. Atmospheric indicators\u2014including trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns\u2014have consistently supported La Ni\u00f1a conditions. While the 30-day SOI briefly fell to \u22120.1 due to recent tropical activity near Tahiti, the 60-day and 90-day SOI values (+7.0 and +6.6) remain near La Ni\u00f1a levels. BOM models indicate La Ni\u00f1a is likely to persist into early 2026 before returning to neutral, earlier than the typical ENSO decay and broadly in line with international guidance.<\/p>\n The details about\u00a0Relative Index is here<\/a><\/p>\n The Current La Ni\u00f1a Signal Is Two Months Old – A Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During The 2025\u201326 Winter Season Click here for Gujarati version – \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abf\u0a95 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0acb Enso Status on 5th January 2026 By the Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43237"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43237\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43269,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43237\/revisions\/43269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Current ONI Status<\/h4>\n
\n
NOAA Criteria for a Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a<\/h4>\n
Important Note on ONI Revisions<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/30yrbaseperiods_Nino34._v5-scaled.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nFinal Take<\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Two La Nina
\nThresh Hold Achieved At The End Of December 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ONI_OND_2025.jpg\")
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\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from April 2024. Recently revised Climate Base 1996-2025. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.71 0.89\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.83 0.34\r\n2024 6 27.90 27.67 0.23\r\n2024 7 27.34 27.25 0.09\r\n2024 8 26.74 26.81 -0.07\r\n2024 9 26.46 26.68 -0.22\r\n2024 10 26.45 26.67 -0.22\r\n2024 11 26.46 26.65 -0.19\r\n2024 12 26.00 26.50 -0.49\r\n2025 1 25.82 26.38 -0.56\r\n2025 2 26.33 26.61 -0.28\r\n2025 3 27.30 27.19 0.11\r\n2025 4 27.69 27.71 -0.02\r\n2025 5 27.80 27.83 -0.02\r\n2025 6 27.66 27.67 -0.01\r\n2025 7 27.15 27.25 -0.10\r\n2025 8 26.49 26.81 -0.32\r\n2025 9 26.25 26.68 -0.43\r\n2025 10 26.22 26.67 -0.45\r\n2025 11 26.01 26.65 -0.64\r\n2025 12 25.94 26.50 -0.56\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 29th December 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the East central and Eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nAtmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Ni\u00f1a.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance).*<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Long-Paddock-SOI-040126.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAs per BOM \u2013 Australia 23rd December 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n
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BOM has introduced Relative Ni\u00f1o indices<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr-04012026.png\")
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\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n