{"id":41801,"date":"2025-12-05T12:57:23","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T07:27:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=41801"},"modified":"2025-12-05T13:37:42","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T08:07:42","slug":"double-dip-la-nina-expected-to-continue-into-2023-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%ac%e0%aa%b2-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%bf%e0%aa%aa-%e0%aa%b2%e0%aa%be-%e0%aa%a8%e0%ab%80%e0%aa%a8%e0%aa%be-2023-%e0%aa%ae%e0%aa%be%e0%aa%82-2-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=41801","title":{"rendered":"ENSO Pregnancy Report Came Out Negative For October &#8211; Reconceived La Ni\u00f1a In November : But a Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Is Theoretically Unlikely During Indian Winter 2025-26"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4><strong>ENSO Pregnancy Report Came Out Negative For October &#8211; Reconceived La Ni\u00f1a In November : But a Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Is Theoretically Unlikely During Indian Winter 2025-26<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=41821\">Click here for Gujarati version &#8211; \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abf\u0a95 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0acb<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Enso Status on 5th December 2025<\/p>\n<h4>Analysis &amp; Commentary by Ashok Patel<\/h4>\n<p>Several international meteorological agencies, including the Indian Meteorological Department and various private meteorological organizations in India, had anticipated the development of a La Ni\u00f1a event during the Indian Winter Season of 2025\/26. Here is my take !<\/p>\n<h4 data-start=\"499\" data-end=\"548\">ENSO Thought To Have Conceived La Ni\u00f1a In October \u2013 Report Came Negative!<\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"628\" data-end=\"901\">The <strong data-start=\"632\" data-end=\"678\">ASO ( August\u2013September\u2013October ) ONI value<\/strong> has touched <strong data-start=\"700\" data-end=\"711\">\u20130.5\u00b0C<\/strong>, meaning the <strong data-start=\"725\" data-end=\"752\">first La Ni\u00f1a threshold<\/strong> had been <strong>barely achieved by rounding of ONI value of \u20130.4533\u00b0C to \u20130.5\u00b0C.\u00a0 However, the Nino3.4 SST for October has been revised down from 0.53\u00b0C to 0.50\u00b0C, thereby ONI value came down to \u20130.4\u00b0C and nullified the First La Nina thresh hold for ASO 2025.\u00a0 T<\/strong>hat\u2019s like saying October <strong data-start=\"793\" data-end=\"827\">ENSO pregnancy <\/strong>report came negative.<\/p>\n<p>The latest ONI for SON 2025 has the ONI at <strong>0.6\u00b0C<\/strong>\u00a0and so the <strong data-start=\"837\" data-end=\"898\">La Ni\u00f1a pregnancy is one month old as of end-November 2025<\/strong>. ENSO requires full five months of pregnancy to give birth to a little child &#8211; <strong>La Ni\u00f1a.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"903\" data-end=\"1158\">For a <strong data-start=\"909\" data-end=\"933\">full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong>, NOAA requires <strong data-start=\"949\" data-end=\"997\">five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods (ONI)<\/strong> at or below <strong>\u20130.5\u00b0C<\/strong>.<br data-start=\"1018\" data-end=\"1021\" \/>Since SON 2025 marks the start, the subsequent four periods \u2014 <strong data-start=\"1083\" data-end=\"1117\">OND, NDJ, DJF and JFM 2025-26<\/strong> \u2014 would complete the five-month cycle.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ONI Data has been obtained from CPC &#8211; NWS &#8211; NOAA available <a href=\"https:\/\/origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/ensostuff\/ONI_v5.php\">here<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3190\" data-end=\"3244\"><strong data-start=\"3193\" data-end=\"3244\">Nuances &amp; Rounding Issues in La Ni\u00f1a Thresholds:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3246\" data-end=\"3384\">The October case demonstrates how small SST adjustments or rounding <strong>(\u20130.4533\u00b0C \u2192 \u20130.5\u00b0C)<\/strong> can momentarily push an index across the threshold.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3386\" data-end=\"3401\">Also important:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3403\" data-end=\"3679\">\n<li data-start=\"3403\" data-end=\"3455\">\n<p data-start=\"3405\" data-end=\"3455\">CPC currently uses the <strong data-start=\"3428\" data-end=\"3453\">1991\u20132020 base period<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3456\" data-end=\"3503\">\n<p data-start=\"3458\" data-end=\"3503\">Every five years the base period is updated<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3504\" data-end=\"3579\">\n<p data-start=\"3506\" data-end=\"3579\">In <strong data-start=\"3509\" data-end=\"3525\">January 2026<\/strong>, the new <strong data-start=\"3535\" data-end=\"3548\">1996\u20132025<\/strong> climatology will take effect<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3580\" data-end=\"3679\">\n<p data-start=\"3582\" data-end=\"3679\">This may cause <strong data-start=\"3597\" data-end=\"3616\">small revisions<\/strong> in recent ONI values and could slightly shift thresholds again<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Hence, the current La Nina thresh hold will be revisited in January 2026 when the new climatological base period 1996-2025 will be adopted. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/ensostuff\/ONI_change.shtml\">See details<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Final take: Based on this analysis and NOAA criteria, it is expected that the Indian Winter of 2025-26 (December 2025- February 2026) will have concluded by the time a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a is recorded by NOAA if at all it materializes. There could even be a possibility that although the <span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">first La Nina thresh is attained and <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">these thresh holds<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\"> exceed only for a total period of 4 or less consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons, then historically this period will be considered as Enso Neutral.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"98\" data-end=\"127\"><strong data-start=\"102\" data-end=\"127\">How ONI is Determined<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"129\" data-end=\"149\"><strong data-start=\"129\" data-end=\"149\">ONI is based on:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"150\" data-end=\"377\">\n<li data-start=\"150\" data-end=\"241\">\n<p data-start=\"152\" data-end=\"241\">Three-month running mean of SST anomalies in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region (5\u00b0N\u20135\u00b0S, 170\u00b0W\u2013120\u00b0W)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"242\" data-end=\"272\">\n<p data-start=\"244\" data-end=\"272\">Using the ERSST.v5 dataset<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"273\" data-end=\"329\">\n<p data-start=\"275\" data-end=\"329\">Compared against the 30-year climatological baseline<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"330\" data-end=\"377\">\n<p data-start=\"332\" data-end=\"377\">Used as the principal ENSO monitoring index<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"379\" data-end=\"426\"><strong data-start=\"379\" data-end=\"426\">CPC considers ENSO conditions present when:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"427\" data-end=\"587\">\n<li data-start=\"427\" data-end=\"474\">\n<p data-start=\"429\" data-end=\"474\">Ni\u00f1o3.4 SST anomalies meet or exceed \u00b10.5\u00b0C<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"475\" data-end=\"537\">\n<p data-start=\"477\" data-end=\"537\">Consistent atmospheric indicators accompany the SST signal<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"538\" data-end=\"587\">\n<p data-start=\"540\" data-end=\"587\">Persistence is expected for the next 3 months<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"589\" data-end=\"702\">The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a division of NOAA\u2019s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows First La Nina<br \/>\nThresh Hold Achieved At The End Of November 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?attachment_id=41818#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41818\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-41818\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/ONI_SON_2025.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1249\" height=\"928\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from April 2024. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2024   4   28.60   27.83    0.77\r\n2024   5   28.17   27.94    0.23\r\n2024   6   27.90   27.73    0.18\r\n2024   7   27.34   27.29    0.05\r\n2024   8   26.74   26.86   -0.12\r\n2024   9   26.46   26.72   -0.26\r\n2024  10   26.45   26.72   -0.27\r\n2024  11   26.46   26.70   -0.25\r\n2024  12   26.00   26.60   -0.60\r\n2025   1   25.82   26.55   -0.73\r\n2025   2   26.34   26.76   -0.43\r\n2025   3   27.31   27.29    0.01\r\n2025   4   27.69   27.83   -0.14\r\n2025   5   27.81   27.94   -0.13\r\n2025   6   27.66   27.73   -0.06\r\n2025   7   27.15   27.29   -0.14\r\n2025   8   26.50   26.86   -0.36\r\n2025   9   26.25   26.72   -0.47\r\n2025  10   26.22   26.72   -0.50\r\n2025  11   26.02   26.70   -0.69\r\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 1st December 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>La Ni\u00f1a is present.*<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.<br \/>\nAtmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Ni\u00f1a.<br \/>\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance).*<\/p>\n<p>Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking <a style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\">here<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>30 Days average SOI was +13.95 at the end of November 2025 and was +8.61 on 4th December 2025 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +7.48 on 4th December 2025. The monthly values are in positive zone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?attachment_id=41805#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41805\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-41805\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Long-Paddock-SOI-051225.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Long-Paddock-SOI-051225.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Long-Paddock-SOI-051225-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Long-Paddock-SOI-051225-1024x427.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Long-Paddock-SOI-051225-768x320.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><strong>As per BOM \u2013 Australia 27th November 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>La Ni\u00f1a in the tropical Pacific<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"177\" data-end=\"1609\">\n<li data-start=\"177\" data-end=\"562\">\n<p data-start=\"179\" data-end=\"280\"><strong data-start=\"179\" data-end=\"202\">La Ni\u00f1a is underway<\/strong> in the tropical Pacific, with strong ocean\u2013atmosphere coupling now evident.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"283\" data-end=\"562\">\n<li data-start=\"283\" data-end=\"366\">\n<p data-start=\"285\" data-end=\"366\">Ni\u00f1o3.4 index for week ending <strong data-start=\"315\" data-end=\"334\">23 Nov: \u20130.93\u00b0C<\/strong> (La Ni\u00f1a threshold &lt; \u20130.8\u00b0C).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"369\" data-end=\"466\">\n<p data-start=\"371\" data-end=\"466\">Trade winds, cloud patterns and pressure fields consistently support La Ni\u00f1a since September.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"469\" data-end=\"562\">\n<p data-start=\"471\" data-end=\"562\"><strong data-start=\"471\" data-end=\"479\">SOI:<\/strong> 30-day <strong data-start=\"487\" data-end=\"496\">+16.1<\/strong> (boosted by Cyclone Fina); 90-day <strong data-start=\"531\" data-end=\"539\">+8.5<\/strong> (firm La Ni\u00f1a signal).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"469\" data-end=\"562\">\n<p data-start=\"471\" data-end=\"562\"><strong data-start=\"1340\" data-end=\"1352\">Outlook: <\/strong>BOM models expect <strong data-start=\"1377\" data-end=\"1426\">La Ni\u00f1a conditions to persist into early 2026<\/strong>, then return to neutral \u2014 aligned with most global models.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"564\" data-end=\"971\"><strong>BOM has introduced Relative Ni\u00f1o indices<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?attachment_id=41806#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-41806\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-41806\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr-04122025.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr-04122025.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr-04122025-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr-04122025-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The details about\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/ocean\/outlooks\/?index=nino34#about-indices\">Relative Index is here<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"box-graphic block-25 float-right\">\n<div class=\"box-centre\">\n<figure class=\"\">\n<div id=\"ensoStatus\"><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">\u00a0All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ENSO Pregnancy Report Came Out Negative For October &#8211; Reconceived La Ni\u00f1a In November : But a Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Is Theoretically Unlikely During Indian Winter 2025-26 Click here for Gujarati version &#8211; \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0acd\u0ab2\u0abf\u0a95 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0acb Enso <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=41801\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41801"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41801\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41835,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41801\/revisions\/41835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}