But a Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Is Theoretically Unlikely During Indian Winter 2025-26
\n(Relying on NOAA criteria)<\/em><\/h4>\nThe ASO ( August\u2013September\u2013October ) ONI value<\/strong> has touched \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/strong>, meaning the first La Ni\u00f1a threshold<\/strong> has been achieved. ( This thresh hold was barely achieved by rounding of ONI value of \u20130.4533 \u00b0C )<\/strong>
That\u2019s like saying ENSO has conceived a baby girl<\/strong>, and the La Ni\u00f1a pregnancy is one month old as of end-October 2025<\/strong>. ENSO requires full five months of pregnancy to give birth to a little child – La Ni\u00f1a.<\/strong><\/p>\nFor a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong>, NOAA requires five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods<\/strong> at or below \u20130.5 \u00b0C.
Since ASO 2025 marks the start, the subsequent four periods \u2014 SON, OND, NDJ, and DJF 2025-26<\/strong> \u2014 would complete the five-month cycle.<\/p>\nIf the cooling continues steadily, La Ni\u00f1a can be formally recognized by the end of February 2026<\/strong>.
However, at that time the Indian winter (December 2025 \u2013 February 2026)<\/strong> will have concluded, at the birth<\/strong> of a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a if at all it materializes.<\/p>\nWhat is a Fully Developed La Ni\u00f1a?<\/h3>\n
To understand anticipated La Ni\u00f1a, it’s important to define what constitutes a “fully developed La Ni\u00f1a,” or a “full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a,” based on NOAA\u2019s operational definitions for ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation):<\/p>\n
\n- El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> is characterized by a positive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC.<\/li>\n
- La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> is defined by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
For an event to be classified as a full-fledged<\/em> El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, the respective ONI threshold must be exceeded for at least five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods (or seasons).<\/p>\nONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a><\/p>\nFirst La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achieved \u2014 Just Barely<\/strong><\/p>\nThe Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI)<\/strong> has further decreased<\/strong>, barely reaching \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/strong> for the ASO (August\u2013September\u2013October) 2025<\/strong> season, thus achieving the first La Ni\u00f1a threshold<\/strong> by the end of October 2025<\/strong>.
This marks the transition into a La Ni\u00f1a state<\/strong> from the ASO (August September\u2013October) 2025<\/strong> season.<\/p>\nA nuance worth noting is that the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST)<\/strong> for August at \u20130.36 \u00b0C, September at \u20130.47 \u00b0C, and October at \u20130.53 \u00b0C\u00a0 of 2025<\/strong> combined total is \u20131.36 \u00b0C<\/strong>, which corresponds to an ONI value of \u20130.453 \u00b0C<\/strong>.
Hence, the La Ni\u00f1a threshold of \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/strong> has been barely met \u2014 thanks to ONI\u2019s rounding convention<\/strong> (values of \u20130.45 \u00b0C or lower are rounded to \u20130.5 \u00b0C).<\/p>\nThis subtle rounding makes the difference between a \u201cnear-miss\u201d and an \u201cofficial threshold achieved\u201d<\/strong>, highlighting how marginal<\/strong> this initial La Ni\u00f1a signal really is.<\/p>\nCurrently the past 30-year base period 1991\u20132020 is used to compute monthly average SST for Nino 3.4 Region, and it will continue to be used to compute the departure from average. However, CPC creates an additional 30-year base period every 5 years (the next update will be at the beginning of 2026). When these 5 year updates occur, the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data. Hence, the current La Nina thresh hold will be revisited in January 2026 when the new climatological base period 1996-2025 will be adopted. See details<\/a><\/p>\nFinal take: Based on this analysis and NOAA criteria, it is expected that the Indian Winter of 2025-26 (December 2025- February 2026) will have concluded by the time a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a is recorded by NOAA. There could even be a possibility that although the first La Nina thresh is attained and <\/span>these thresh holds<\/span> exceed only for a total period of 4 or less consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons, then historically this period will be considered as Enso Neutral.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/p>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows First La Nina
\nThresh Hold Achieved\u00a0 At The End Of October 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ONI_ASO_2025.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from April 2024. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.77\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.23\r\n2024 6 27.90 27.73 0.18\r\n2024 7 27.34 27.29 0.05\r\n2024 8 26.74 26.86 -0.12\r\n2024 9 26.46 26.72 -0.26\r\n2024 10 26.45 26.72 -0.27\r\n2024 11 26.46 26.70 -0.25\r\n2024 12 26.00 26.60 -0.60\r\n2025 1 25.82 26.55 -0.73\r\n2025 2 26.34 26.76 -0.43\r\n2025 3 27.31 27.29 0.01\r\n2025 4 27.69 27.83 -0.14\r\n2025 5 27.81 27.94 -0.13\r\n2025 6 27.66 27.73 -0.06\r\n2025 7 27.15 27.29 -0.14\r\n2025 8 26.50 26.86 -0.36\r\n2025 9 26.25 26.72 -0.47\r\n2025 10 26.19 26.72 -0.53\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 3rd November 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory
\nLa Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.*<\/strong><\/p>\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
\nAtmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Ni\u00f1a.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 – February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).*<\/strong><\/p>\nNote: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was +12.07 at the end of October 2025 and was +13.59 on 5th November 2025 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +6.47 on 5th November 2025. The monthly values are in positive zone.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Long-Padock-SOI-05112025.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAs per BOM \u2013 Australia 1st November 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n- The El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While there are signs of possible La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a development in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, these signals have not yet been sustained at a sufficient strength or duration to meet Bureau criteria for an active event.<\/li>\n
- The latest relative Ni\u00f1o3.4 SST index value for the week ending 26\u00a0October\u00a02025 is \u22120.86\u00a0\u00b0C. The weekly values of the relative Ni\u00f1o3.4 index have been fluctuating around the La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a threshold since mid-to-late September. Index values between \u20130.8\u00a0\u00b0C and +0.8\u00a0\u00b0C are considered ENSO-neutral while sustained values below \u20130.8\u00a0\u00b0C (for at least 3 months) are considered indicative of La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a.<\/li>\n
- Some atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure and cloud patterns over the equatorial central Pacific, show some signs of La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a development. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has just recently exceeded +7, although the 90-day SOI remains neutral. The Madden\u2013Julian Oscillation is currently, as at 26\u00a0October\u00a02025, enhancing trade winds over the western Pacific, which may provide a short-term boost towards La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a conditions.<\/li>\n
- Under Bureau criteria, La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a is considered established when sustained cool waters in the central tropical Pacific (relative Ni\u00f1o3.4 index values below \u20130.8\u00a0\u00b0C for at least 3\u00a0months) are accompanied by a consistent atmospheric response.<\/li>\n
- The Bureau’s model currently predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to just meet La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a levels during November and December, before returning to neutral. This timing aligns with most international models assessed, although they generally show slightly more cooling, compared to the Bureau’s model.<\/li>\n
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is negative as at 25\u00a0October. It is forecast to increase in the coming days to neutral SAM levels and remain so for the at least the next fortnight.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/sstOutlooks.rnino34.hr-05112025.png\")
<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\nBOM has introduced Relative Ni\u00f1o indices<\/p>\n
The details about\u00a0Relative Index is here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u00a0All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Enso Status on 6th November 2025 Analysis & Commentary by Ashok Patel Several international meteorological agencies, including the Indian Meteorological Department and various private meteorological organizations in India, have anticipated the development of a La Ni\u00f1a event during the Indian Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40740"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48256,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40740\/revisions\/48256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
That\u2019s like saying ENSO has conceived a baby girl<\/strong>, and the La Ni\u00f1a pregnancy is one month old as of end-October 2025<\/strong>. ENSO requires full five months of pregnancy to give birth to a little child – La Ni\u00f1a.<\/strong><\/p>\n
For a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong>, NOAA requires five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods<\/strong> at or below \u20130.5 \u00b0C. If the cooling continues steadily, La Ni\u00f1a can be formally recognized by the end of February 2026<\/strong>. To understand anticipated La Ni\u00f1a, it’s important to define what constitutes a “fully developed La Ni\u00f1a,” or a “full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a,” based on NOAA\u2019s operational definitions for ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation):<\/p>\n For an event to be classified as a full-fledged<\/em> El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, the respective ONI threshold must be exceeded for at least five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods (or seasons).<\/p>\n ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a><\/p>\n First La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achieved \u2014 Just Barely<\/strong><\/p>\n The Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI)<\/strong> has further decreased<\/strong>, barely reaching \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/strong> for the ASO (August\u2013September\u2013October) 2025<\/strong> season, thus achieving the first La Ni\u00f1a threshold<\/strong> by the end of October 2025<\/strong>. A nuance worth noting is that the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST)<\/strong> for August at \u20130.36 \u00b0C, September at \u20130.47 \u00b0C, and October at \u20130.53 \u00b0C\u00a0 of 2025<\/strong> combined total is \u20131.36 \u00b0C<\/strong>, which corresponds to an ONI value of \u20130.453 \u00b0C<\/strong>. This subtle rounding makes the difference between a \u201cnear-miss\u201d and an \u201cofficial threshold achieved\u201d<\/strong>, highlighting how marginal<\/strong> this initial La Ni\u00f1a signal really is.<\/p>\n Currently the past 30-year base period 1991\u20132020 is used to compute monthly average SST for Nino 3.4 Region, and it will continue to be used to compute the departure from average. However, CPC creates an additional 30-year base period every 5 years (the next update will be at the beginning of 2026). When these 5 year updates occur, the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data. Hence, the current La Nina thresh hold will be revisited in January 2026 when the new climatological base period 1996-2025 will be adopted. See details<\/a><\/p>\n Final take: Based on this analysis and NOAA criteria, it is expected that the Indian Winter of 2025-26 (December 2025- February 2026) will have concluded by the time a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a is recorded by NOAA. There could even be a possibility that although the first La Nina thresh is attained and <\/span>these thresh holds<\/span> exceed only for a total period of 4 or less consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons, then historically this period will be considered as Enso Neutral.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/p>\n The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from April 2024. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was +12.07 at the end of October 2025 and was +13.59 on 5th November 2025 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +6.47 on 5th November 2025. The monthly values are in positive zone.<\/p>\n As per BOM \u2013 Australia 1st November 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n BOM has introduced Relative Ni\u00f1o indices<\/p>\n The details about\u00a0Relative Index is here<\/a><\/p>\n Enso Status on 6th November 2025 Analysis & Commentary by Ashok Patel Several international meteorological agencies, including the Indian Meteorological Department and various private meteorological organizations in India, have anticipated the development of a La Ni\u00f1a event during the Indian Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=40740"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48256,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40740\/revisions\/48256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=40740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=40740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=40740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Since ASO 2025 marks the start, the subsequent four periods \u2014 SON, OND, NDJ, and DJF 2025-26<\/strong> \u2014 would complete the five-month cycle.<\/p>\n
However, at that time the Indian winter (December 2025 \u2013 February 2026)<\/strong> will have concluded, at the birth<\/strong> of a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a if at all it materializes.<\/p>\nWhat is a Fully Developed La Ni\u00f1a?<\/h3>\n
\n
This marks the transition into a La Ni\u00f1a state<\/strong> from the ASO (August September\u2013October) 2025<\/strong> season.<\/p>\n
Hence, the La Ni\u00f1a threshold of \u20130.5 \u00b0C<\/strong> has been barely met \u2014 thanks to ONI\u2019s rounding convention<\/strong> (values of \u20130.45 \u00b0C or lower are rounded to \u20130.5 \u00b0C).<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows First La Nina
\nThresh Hold Achieved\u00a0 At The End Of October 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.77\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.23\r\n2024 6 27.90 27.73 0.18\r\n2024 7 27.34 27.29 0.05\r\n2024 8 26.74 26.86 -0.12\r\n2024 9 26.46 26.72 -0.26\r\n2024 10 26.45 26.72 -0.27\r\n2024 11 26.46 26.70 -0.25\r\n2024 12 26.00 26.60 -0.60\r\n2025 1 25.82 26.55 -0.73\r\n2025 2 26.34 26.76 -0.43\r\n2025 3 27.31 27.29 0.01\r\n2025 4 27.69 27.83 -0.14\r\n2025 5 27.81 27.94 -0.13\r\n2025 6 27.66 27.73 -0.06\r\n2025 7 27.15 27.29 -0.14\r\n2025 8 26.50 26.86 -0.36\r\n2025 9 26.25 26.72 -0.47\r\n2025 10 26.19 26.72 -0.53\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 3rd November 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nLa Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.*<\/strong><\/p>\n
\nAtmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Ni\u00f1a.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 – February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).*<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n