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WTIO31 PGTW 110300\r\nMSGID\/GENADMIN\/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI\/\/\r\nSUBJ\/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004\/\/\r\nRMKS\/\r\n1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004 \r\n 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n ---\r\n WARNING POSITION:\r\n 110000Z --- NEAR 7.0N 91.0E\r\n MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS\r\n POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM\r\n POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE\r\n PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n REPEAT POSIT: 7.0N 91.0E\r\n ---\r\n FORECASTS:\r\n 12 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 111200Z --- 8.1N 89.3E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG\/ 10 KTS\r\n ---\r\n 24 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 120000Z --- 9.5N 87.9E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG\/ 06 KTS\r\n ---\r\n 36 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 121200Z --- 10.6N 87.2E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG\/ 08 KTS\r\n ---\r\n EXTENDED OUTLOOK:\r\n 48 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 130000Z --- 12.2N 86.9E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG\/ 09 KTS\r\n ---\r\n 72 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 140000Z --- 15.6N 87.5E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\n VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG\/ 10 KTS\r\n ---\r\n LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:\r\n ---\r\n 96 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 150000Z --- 19.1N 89.6E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG\/ 12 KTS\r\n ---\r\n 120 HRS, VALID AT:\r\n 160000Z --- 22.7N 92.9E\r\n MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT\r\n WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY\r\n DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND\r\n ---\r\nREMARKS:\r\n110300Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 90.6E.\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM SOUTHWARD \r\nOF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS\r\nOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM SPOT OVER \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO \r\nGROW OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON \r\nTHE DEVELOPING WARM SPOT NOTICED IN IR AND A TIGHTLY CURVED NOTCH \r\nFEATURE IN THE 110011Z SSMIS 37H IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF \r\n30-35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE 101810Z OSCAT PASS THAT \r\nSHOWED MULTIPLE 40-KNOT WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SEEMS TO \r\nINDICATE THAT THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY HAVE DISSOLVED FOR THE TIME \r\nBEING BUT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS OVER THE LLCC. VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR VALUES FROM CIMSS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS BUT THE \r\nROBUST OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR. TC 01B IS \r\nFORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING \r\nINFLUENCE OF WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) \r\nPOSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B \r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN \r\nAPPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER \r\nNORTHERN INDIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 48, \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE MYANMAR\/BANGLADESH BORDER AS \r\nMIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF \r\nBENGAL. TC 01B IS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING ALMOST THE \r\nENTIRETY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THEREFORE, BETA ADVECTION IS EXPECTED \r\nTO SUSTAIN THE NOSE OF THE STEERING STR. THIS EFFECT SHOULD CAUSE \r\nTHE TC TO TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL \r\nBEFORE EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING. TC 01B SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF \r\n85 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TAPPED INTO THE \r\nWESTERLIES. BY TAU 120 THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MADE LANDFALL AS A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TC AND BEGUN TO SPIN-DOWN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE \r\nIS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE \r\nTO CONVERGE ON THIS SOLUTION. THE ONLY CONCERNING FACTOR IS THE SLOW \r\nTRACK SPEEDS OF THE ECMWF TRACKER. HOWEVER, IT IS NOW INLINE WITH \r\nTHE RE-CURVE TOWARDS BANGLADESH AND MAY COME FURTHER INLINE WITH \r\nTRACK SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE \r\nHEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, \r\n112100Z AND 120300Z.\/\/\r\nNNNN<\/pre>\n <\/p>\n
JTWC Forecast Track For 01B.ONE<\/h3>\n
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As per RSMC\/IMD vide their Bulletin No.: BOB 01\/2013\/04 Time of issue: 0830 hours IST Dated: 11-05-2013 the Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved Northwest and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 11th May 2013 near latitude 06.50 N. and longitude 91.00 E. about 360 km Southwest of Car Nicobar, 1100 km East-Southeast of Trincomalee, 1400 km Southeast of Chennai and 1750 km South of Chittagong. The system would intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. It would move initially Northwestwards during next 36 hours and recurve thereafter Northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.<\/p>\n
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RSMC\/IMD New Delhi is the Official Agency monitoring Cyclonic Weather Systems and since they expect the current Deep Depression to intensify further, it can be construed that Cyclonic Storm when developed would be named “MAHASEN” the name contributed by Sri Lanka. The last Cyclone was “NILAM”.<\/p>\n
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The names of Cyclonic Storms are contributed by eight nations associated with the North Indian Ocean are tabulated hereunder:<\/h3>\n
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