{"id":34706,"date":"2025-03-12T14:26:54","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T08:56:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34706"},"modified":"2025-03-12T19:19:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-12T13:49:16","slug":"colder-weather-expected-for-saurashtra-gujarat-kutch-13th-19th-december-2018-well-marked-low-pressure-over-se-bob-to-affect-tamilnadu-andhra-adjoining-states-14th-to-17th-december-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-2-2-36","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34706","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow Onwards Relief From Heat: Gradual Temperature Drop Expected Over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 13th To 17th March \u2014 Evening Wind Direction On ‘Holi’ Unreliable Indicator For Monsoon Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow Onwards Relief From Heat: Gradual Temperature Drop Expected Over Saurashtra, Gujarat & Kutch 13th To 17th March \u2014 Evening Wind Direction On ‘Holi’ Unreliable Indicator For Monsoon Prediction<\/h4>\n

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Current Weather Conditions on 12th March 2025<\/h4>\n

Gujarat Observations:<\/strong>
\nThe Maximum Temperature is 7\u00b0C to 8\u00b0C above normal over various parts of Gujarat State where there was a Severe Heat Wave.<\/p>\n

Maximum Temperature on 11th March is as under:<\/p>\n

Surendranagar\u00a0 42.8\u00b0C which is 8\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Bhuj\u00a0 42.4\u00b0C which is 8\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Rajkot\u00a0 42.3\u00b0C which is 8\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Deesa 41.6\u00b0C which is 8\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Amreli 41.6\u00b0C which is 7\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Porbandar 41.0\u00b0C which is 8\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Ahmedabad 41.2\u00b0C which is 7\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n

Holi Evening wind direction:<\/strong>
\nOn 13th March ‘Holi’ wind direction evening 6 pm. to 9 pm. will be mostly from West and in some places it will be from West North West direction.<\/strong>
\nThe traditional method of monsoon forecasting relies on observing the wind direction on the evening of \u2018Holi.\u2019 However, since \u2018Holi\u2019 is based on the lunar calendar, its date shifts each year \u2014 typically by 10 to 20 days earlier or later. A study of the calendar over the past 125 years shows that the earliest \u2018Holi\u2019 occurred on 26th February 1945, while the latest was on 28th March 2021.<\/p>\n

To use wind direction as a reliable empirical indicator for monsoon prediction, a fixed date representing the long-term average of past \u2018Holi\u2019 dates would be more consistent. This analysis points to 13th March as the average date over the past 125 years.<\/p>\n

Therefore, I propose that the traditional wind direction method for monsoon forecasting should be based on observations taken on 13th March rather than on the varying date of \u2018Holi.\u2019 Interestingly, this year \u2018Holi\u2019 happens to fall on 13th March \u2014 aligning perfectly with the historical average. Similar incident of Holi on 13th March was in 1903, 1922, 1960,1979, 1998.<\/p>\n

Chart for Monsoon Forecast by Traditional Method based on Wind direction on \u2018HOLI\u2019 Day.
\nNote the orientation of the directions \u2013 East is on Top so be careful !<\/h4>\n

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Weather Forecast Saurashtra, Gujarat, & Kutch 12th To 19th March 2025<\/h3>\n