{"id":34510,"date":"2025-02-05T22:04:24","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T16:34:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34510"},"modified":"2025-02-06T11:12:10","modified_gmt":"2025-02-06T05:42:10","slug":"double-dip-la-nina-expected-to-continue-into-2023-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%ac%e0%aa%b2-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%bf%e0%aa%aa-%e0%aa%b2%e0%aa%be-%e0%aa%a8%e0%ab%80%e0%aa%a8%e0%aa%be-2023-%e0%aa%ae%e0%aa%be%e0%aa%82-2-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34510","title":{"rendered":"2025 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0ac7 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acb \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb &#8211; \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0aae\u0a82\u0a9c\u0abf\u0ab2 \u0a98\u0aa3\u0ac0 \u0aa6\u0ac2\u0ab0 \u0a9b\u0ac7 !"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>2025 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0ac7 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acb \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb &#8211; \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0aae\u0a82\u0a9c\u0abf\u0ab2 \u0a98\u0aa3\u0ac0 \u0aa6\u0ac2\u0ab0 \u0a9b\u0ac7 !<\/h4>\n<h4>The First La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achieved at the End of January 2025 \u2013 It&#8217;s a Long Way to Go!<\/h4>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa6\u0acd\u0ab5\u0abe\u0ab0\u0abe \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a9f\u0abf\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aaa\u0aa3\u0ac0:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>2024 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8, \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7 \u0a86\u0a82\u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0a93 &#8211; \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aad\u0abe\u0a97 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7 \u0a96\u0abe\u0aa8\u0a97\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a97\u0aa0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0ab9\u0ac0\u0aa4 \u0a8f &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa1\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acb\u0aaa \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aaa\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abe \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac0. \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a95\u0ac7, 2024 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ab0\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac0 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb. \u0aae\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2024 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 2025 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0aac\u0acd\u0ab2\u0acb\u0a97 \u0aaa\u0acb\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0aa6\u0acd\u0ab5\u0abe\u0ab0\u0abe \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aa6\u0ac3\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f\u0abf\u0a95\u0acb\u0aa3 \u0ab0\u0a9c\u0ac2 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aaf\u0acb \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a95\u0ab8\u0ac7\u0ab2 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0ab6\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0a85\u0aaa\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa4 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0ab8\u0abe\u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0aa8 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0a9c\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7, NOAA \u0aa8\u0ac0 ENSO (\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb- \u0ab8\u0aa7\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa8 \u0a93\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0aa8 ) \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aaf\u0a95\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a93 \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a96\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0ac7, &#8216;\u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a95\u0ab8\u0ac7\u0ab2 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8221; \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aaa\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ab0\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7:<\/p>\n<p>\u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb: +0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0acb\u0a9d\u0abf\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 \u0a93\u0ab6\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0ac2\u0a9a\u0a95\u0abe\u0a82\u0a95 (ONI) \u0aa6\u0acd\u0ab5\u0abe\u0ab0\u0abe \u0a93\u0ab3\u0a96\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<br \/>\n\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82: -0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 ONI \u0aa6\u0acd\u0ab5\u0abe\u0ab0\u0abe \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aaf\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<br \/>\n\u0a8f\u0a95 \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3\u0aaa\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a95\u0ab8\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac3\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7, \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aac\u0a82\u0aa7\u0abf\u0aa4 ONI \u0aae\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa6\u0abe \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0a93\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0 3-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a8b\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a93 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0aa5\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0ab6\u0acd\u0aaf\u0a95 \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n<p>\u0a9c\u0acb &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa6\u0abe\u0a93 2025 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0aae \u0a93\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0 3-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a8b\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a93\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0ab3\u0ab5\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aae\u0ac7 2025 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a95\u0ab8\u0ac7\u0ab2 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aac\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0, \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0a95 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab2\u0abe\u0a82\u0aac\u0acb \u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0acb \u0aac\u0abe\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7!<\/p>\n<p>\u0ab8\u0a82\u0aad\u0ab5 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0a95\u0ac1\u0ab2 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0a93\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0 3-\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a8b\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a93 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a9c \u0aaa\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0aa5\u0a88 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a90\u0aa4\u0abf\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0aa6\u0ac3\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f\u0abf\u0a95\u0acb\u0aa3\u0aa5\u0ac0 ENSO-\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a97\u0aa3\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/p>\n<p>Enso Status on 5th February 2025<\/p>\n<h4>Analysis &amp; Commentary by Ashok Patel<\/h4>\n<p>Several international meteorological agencies\u2014including the Indian Meteorological Department and various private organizations\u2014had anticipated the development of a La Ni\u00f1a event during the Indian Summer Monsoon of 2024. However, by the end of 2024, the necessary La Ni\u00f1a threshold had not been met. In contrast, I presented a counter perspective through monthly blog posts from July to January 2025.<\/p>\n<h3>What is a Fully Developed La Ni\u00f1a?<\/h3>\n<p>To understand why the anticipated La Ni\u00f1a did not materialize, it&#8217;s important to define what constitutes a &#8220;fully developed La Ni\u00f1a,&#8221; or a &#8220;full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a,&#8221; based on NOAA\u2019s operational definitions for ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> is characterized by a positive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC.<\/li>\n<li><strong>La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> is defined by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For an event to be classified as a <em>full-fledged<\/em> El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, the respective ONI threshold must be met or exceeded for at least five consecutive overlapping 3-monthly seasons.<\/p>\n<p>ONI Data has been obtained from CPC &#8211; NWS &#8211; NOAA available <a href=\"https:\/\/origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/ensostuff\/ONI_v5.php\">here<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Ni\u00f1o3.4 SST has been recorded at -0.25\u00b0C for November 2024, -0.60\u00b0C for December 2024 and -0.76\u00b0C for January 2025. This gives the Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) of -0.5\u00b0C for (November-December-January) 2024-25 season, thereby attaining the First La Nina threshold at the end of January 2025.<\/p>\n<p>This development has potentially set the stage for a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a by May 2025, provided the La Ni\u00f1a thresholds are sustained across all overlapping consecutive three-monthly seasons until then. Hence, its a long way to go!<\/p>\n<p>It is possible that the La Ni\u00f1a threshold may only be exceeded for a total period of four or fewer consecutive overlapping three-month seasons, which then for historical purpose would be considered ENSO-neutral. There is also a possibility of reclassification of ENSO status due to the nuances of updated SST of the Nino regions with base period (1996\u20132025). CPC\u00a0 creates an additional 30-year base period every 5 years (the next update will be at the beginning of 2026).<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n<p>In real-time operations, the past 30-year base period (e.g. 1991\u20132020) will continue to be used to compute the departure from average. However, CPC will create an additional 30-year base period every 5 years (the next update will be at the beginning of 2026). When these 5 year updates occur, the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data. Every five years, this method takes care of climatological changes in the SST of Nino3.4 region and the buzz about the need to adopt Relative Nino Index is not justified.<\/p>\n<p>NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n<p>CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<b>Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(<b>CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Enso Neutral<br \/>\nConditions Prevail\u00a0 At The End Of January 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?attachment_id=34504#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-34504\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-34504\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2025-ejpg-1024x760.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"860\" height=\"638\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2025-ejpg-1024x760.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2025-ejpg-300x223.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2025-ejpg-768x570.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2025-ejpg.jpg 1249w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n<pre>Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2023   2   26.30   26.76   -0.46\r\n2023   3   27.19   27.29   -0.11\r\n2023   4   27.96   27.83    0.14\r\n2023   5   28.40   27.94    0.46\r\n2023   6   28.57   27.73    0.84\r\n2023   7   28.31   27.29    1.02\r\n2023   8   28.21   26.86    1.35\r\n2023   9   28.32   26.72    1.60\r\n2023  10   28.44   26.72    1.72\r\n2023  11   28.72   26.70    2.02\r\n2023  12   28.63   26.60    2.02\r\n2024   1   28.37   26.55    1.82\r\n2024   2   28.28   26.76    1.52\r\n2024   3   28.42   27.29    1.12\r\n2024   4   28.60   27.83    0.78\r\n2024   5   28.17   27.94    0.24\r\n2024   6   27.91   27.73    0.18\r\n2024   6   27.90   27.73    0.17\r\n2024   7   27.34   27.29    0.05\r\n2024   8   26.74   26.86   -0.12\r\n2024   9   26.46   26.72   -0.26\r\n2024  10   26.45   26.72   -0.27\r\n2024  11   26.46   26.70   -0.25\r\n2024  12   26.00   26.60   -0.60\r\n2025   1   25.79   26.55   -0.76\r\n<\/pre>\n<p><strong>Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 3rd February 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Advisory<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>La Ni\u00f1a conditions are present.*<br \/>\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.<br \/>\nLa Ni\u00f1a conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).<\/p>\n<p>Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking <a style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\">here<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 1.5rem;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The 30 Days average SOI for end of January 2025 was in the neutral zone at 2.19, however, on 5th February 2025 it has increased and is still in neutral zone at +5.85 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government. The 90 Days average SOI has also increased to +8.12 on 5th February 2025.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?attachment_id=34495#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-34495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-34495\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Long-Paddock-SOI-050225-1024x427.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"860\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Long-Paddock-SOI-050225-1024x427.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Long-Paddock-SOI-050225-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Long-Paddock-SOI-050225-768x320.png 768w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Long-Paddock-SOI-050225.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><strong>As per BOM \u2013 Australia 5th February 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<li>Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during January 2025 were the warmest on record for all Januarys since records began in 1900, Additionally, the SST anomaly was also the equal most positive value on record for any month. The latest weekly SST analysis shows warmer waters around most of the Australian coastline, but particularly across the western Australian coastline, providing increased atmospheric moisture and energy that may influence the severity of weather systems.<\/li>\n<li>The El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral for the past 6 months, despite changes in sea surface temperature patterns consistent with a developing La Ni\u00f1a.<\/li>\n<li>Since late December, the tropical Pacific has become more La Ni\u00f1a-like, with both oceanic and atmospheric indices beginning to align. However, this response has not consistently met the Bureau&#8217;s La Ni\u00f1a thresholds.<\/li>\n<li>The weekly Ni\u00f1o34 index has fluctuated around the La Ni\u00f1a threshold of \u22120.8 \u00b0C since late 2024, with the most recent value of \u22120.86 \u00b0C (for the week ending 26 January) dropping just below the La Ni\u00f1a threshold.<\/li>\n<li>All international models surveyed forecast neutral ENSO (neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a) from March until at least June.<\/li>\n<li>Historically, it is very late in the typical ENSO cycle for a La Ni\u00f1a event to develop, with La Ni\u00f1a also tending to have a weaker association with Australian temperature and rainfall patterns during summer compared to winter and spring.<\/li>\n<li>Note: The seasons stated in BOM communications refer to Southern Hemisphere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2025 \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0ac7 &#8216;\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a82&#8217; \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0acb \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6\u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb &#8211; \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0aae\u0a82\u0a9c\u0abf\u0ab2 \u0a98\u0aa3\u0ac0 \u0aa6\u0ac2\u0ab0 \u0a9b\u0ac7 ! The First La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achieved at the End of January 2025 \u2013 It&#8217;s a Long Way to Go! \u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aa6\u0acd\u0ab5\u0abe\u0ab0\u0abe <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34510\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34510\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}