{"id":34350,"date":"2025-01-07T12:58:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-07T07:28:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34350"},"modified":"2025-01-07T12:58:24","modified_gmt":"2025-01-07T07:28:24","slug":"double-dip-la-nina-expected-to-continue-into-2023-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%ac%e0%aa%b2-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%bf%e0%aa%aa-%e0%aa%b2%e0%aa%be-%e0%aa%a8%e0%ab%80%e0%aa%a8%e0%aa%be-2023-%e0%aa%ae%e0%aa%be%e0%aa%82-2-1-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=34350","title":{"rendered":"ENSO Neutral Conditions Persist: Earliest Potential First La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achievable By End Of January 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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ENSO Neutral Conditions Persist: Earliest Potential First La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achievable By End of January 2025<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Enso Status on 7th January 2025<\/h4>\n

Analysis & Commentary by Ashok Patel<\/h4>\n

Several international meteorological agencies, including the Indian Meteorological Department and various private meteorological organizations in India, had anticipated the development of a La Ni\u00f1a event during the Indian Summer Monsoon of 2024. The reality is that not a single La Nina thresh hold has been established till date. In fact we had taken a different stance and published monthly blog posts to provide a counter perspective, as summarized below:<\/p>\n

5th July 2024<\/strong>
\nTitle: “El Ni\u00f1o Ends & First ENSO Neutral Threshold Established End of June 2024 – Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a As Per NOAA Criteria Not Expected During Indian Southwest Monsoon 2024” Available here<\/a><\/strong><\/em>
\nIn our first post, we highlighted the end of the El Ni\u00f1o phase, with the ENSO conditions transitioning to neutral by the end of June. Based on NOAA criteria, we concluded that a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a event was unlikely during the Indian Southwest Monsoon of 2024.<\/p>\n

9th August 2024<\/strong>
\nTitle: “NOAA Criteria Suggest Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely in 2024 \u2013 Even a Single La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Unlikely During the Indian Southwest Monsoon” Available here<\/a><\/strong><\/em>
\nOur second update reiterated that, according to NOAA criteria, a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a was unlikely in 2024. We further emphasized that even crossing a single La Ni\u00f1a threshold during the monsoon season seemed improbable.<\/p>\n

6th September 2024<\/strong>
\nTitle: “Much-Awaited La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely in 2024; La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Expected During Indian Southwest Monsoon”
\nAvailable here<\/a><\/strong><\/em>
\nBy September, our analysis further confirmed that the much-anticipated La Ni\u00f1a event was unlikely to occur, with no indications of reaching the La Ni\u00f1a threshold during the Indian Southwest Monsoon.<\/p>\n

23rd October 2024<\/strong>
\nTitle: “La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Yet Reached: Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During Indian Winter 2024-25” Available here<\/a><\/strong><\/em>
\nOur fourth update noted that as of September end, the La Ni\u00f1a threshold had still not been reached, suggesting that a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a event during the Indian Winter of 2024-25 was also unlikely.<\/p>\n

6th November 2024<\/strong>
\nTitle: “La Ni\u00f1a Playing Hard Ball: Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During Indian Winter 2024-25” Available here<\/a><\/strong><\/em>
\nOur fifth post reaffirmed that La Ni\u00f1a conditions were proving elusive. With no clear signals of a La Ni\u00f1a, we maintain that La Nina will not materialize during the Indian Winter 2024-25.<\/p>\n

6th December 2024<\/strong>
\nTitle: “ENSO Neutral Conditions Persist: La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Yet Reached, Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Requires At Least Five Months” Available here<\/a><\/strong> <\/em>
\nOur sixth post we report that the La Ni\u00f1a threshold has not yet been reached, and we stress that a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a would require at least five months of sustained La Nina thresh hold conditions once it is reached.<\/p>\n

7th January 2025
\n<\/strong>Title: “ENSO Neutral Conditions Persists: Earliest Potential First La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Achievable End Of January 2025”<\/em>
\nOur seventh post here we report that not a single La Ni\u00f1a threshold has been established, and even the first La Nina thresh hold is established at the end of January, we stress that a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a would require at least five months of sustained La Nina thresh hold conditions if it is reached.<\/p>\n

What is a Fully Developed La Ni\u00f1a?<\/h3>\n

To understand why the anticipated La Ni\u00f1a failed to materialize, it’s important to define what constitutes a “fully developed La Ni\u00f1a,” or a “full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a,” based on NOAA\u2019s operational definitions for ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation):<\/p>\n