The second post was on 09-08-2024 tittled NOAA Criteria Suggest Full-Fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely in 2024 \u2013 Even A Single La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Unlikely During the Indian Southwest Monsoon<\/a><\/p>\n The third post was on 06-09-2024 tittled Much-Awaited La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely in 2024; La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Expected During Indian Southwest Monsoon<\/a><\/p>\n The fourth post was on 23-10-2024 tittled\u00a0La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Yet Reached: Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During Indian Winter 2024-25<\/a><\/p>\n And now, we present the fifth update regarding La Ni\u00f1a Playing a Hard Ball.<\/p>\n To understand why the anticipated La Ni\u00f1a failed to materialize, it’s important to define what constitutes a “fully developed La Ni\u00f1a,” or a “full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a,” based on NOAA\u2019s operational definitions for ENSO (El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation):<\/p>\n For an event to be classified as a full-fledged<\/em> El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, the respective ONI threshold must be exceeded for at least five consecutive overlapping 3-month periods (or seasons).<\/p>\n In the case of the 2024 Indian Summer Monsoon, despite extensive monitoring, a La Ni\u00f1a event never materialized. The required threshold for La Ni\u00f1a, a negative ONI of -0.5\u00baC or lower, was never reached.<\/p>\n ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a><\/p>\n The Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) has further decreased to -0.2\u00b0C for the ASO 2024 season, maintaining the ENSO Neutral threshold through the end of October 2024. This marks the establishment of the fifth consecutive ENSO-neutral condition. To transition into a La Ni\u00f1a state, the ONI would need to drop to at least -0.5\u00b0C during the SON 2024 season. Specifically, the combined Ni\u00f1o3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) for September, October, and November 2024 would need to total at least -1.36\u00b0C.<\/p>\n As of now, the Ni\u00f1o3.4 SST was recorded at -0.25\u00b0C for September 2024 and -0.28\u00b0C for October 2024. To achieve the necessary three-month total, the SST in November would need to drop to -0.83\u00b0C. If this happens, the first La Ni\u00f1a threshold would be met for the SON 2024 season. This could potentially set the stage for a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a by March 2025, provided the La Ni\u00f1a thresholds are sustained across all consecutive overlapping three-month periods until then.<\/p>\n However, if the SST does not reach -0.83\u00b0C in the Ni\u00f1o3.4 region by November 2024, ENSO neutral conditions would continue. In that case, the earliest a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a could form would be in April 2025, again assuming the thresholds are maintained through the necessary overlapping three-month periods.<\/p>\n Based on this analysis and NOAA criteria, it is expected that the Indian Winter of 2024-25 (December 2024- February 2025) will conclude without a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a. Even if the La Ni\u00f1a threshold is met in any month before February 2025, a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a would still be unlikely, as there would not be enough time to maintain the required five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons for classification. There could even be a possibility of the first La Nina thresh hold being attained and if <\/span>these thresh holds<\/span> exceed only for a total period of 4 or less consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons, historically this period will be considered as Enso Neutral.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/p>\n The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was +4.31 at the end of October 2024 and was +4.38 on 4th November 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +3.69 on 4th November 2024. These are in the neutral zone.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" La Ni\u00f1a Playing Hard Ball: Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During\u00a0Indian Winter 2024-25 Enso Status on 6th November 2024 Analysis & Commentary by Ashok Patel Several international meteorological agencies, including the Indian Meteorological Department and various private meteorological organizations in India, Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34016\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}What is a Fully Developed La Ni\u00f1a?<\/h3>\n
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Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Enso Neutral
\nConditions Prevail\u00a0 At The End Of October 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/ONI_ASO_2024-1024x761.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.28 26.76 1.52\r\n2024 3 28.42 27.29 1.12\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.78\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.24\r\n2024 6 27.91 27.73 0.18\r\n2024 7 27.34 27.29 0.05\r\n2024 8 26.74 26.86 -0.11\r\n2024 9 26.47 26.72 -0.25\r\n2024 10 26.44 26.72 -0.28\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 28th October 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.*<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Long-Padock-041124-1024x427.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAs per BOM \u2013 Australia 29th October 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/20241029.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n