{"id":33665,"date":"2024-10-23T09:38:50","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T04:08:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=33665"},"modified":"2024-11-05T10:22:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T04:52:21","slug":"double-dip-la-nina-expected-to-continue-into-2023-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%ac%e0%aa%b2-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%bf%e0%aa%aa-%e0%aa%b2%e0%aa%be-%e0%aa%a8%e0%ab%80%e0%aa%a8%e0%aa%be-2023-%e0%aa%ae%e0%aa%be%e0%aa%82-2-1-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=33665","title":{"rendered":"La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Yet Reached: Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During\u00a0 Indian Winter 2024-25"},"content":{"rendered":"

La Ni\u00f1a Threshold Not Yet Reached: Full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a Unlikely During\u00a0 Indian Winter 2024-25<\/h4>\n

Enso Status on 21st October 2024<\/h4>\n

Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\n

ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a>
\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) has further decreased to -0.1\u00b0C for the JAS 2024 season, maintaining the ENSO Neutral threshold through the end of September 2024. This marks the establishment of the Fourth ENSO Neutral condition. To transition into a La Ni\u00f1a state, the ONI must drop to at least -0.5\u00b0C for the ASO 2024 season. This would require the combined Ni\u00f1o3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) for August, September, and October 2024 to total at least -1.36\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

As of now, the Ni\u00f1o3.4 SST was recorded at -0.11\u00b0C for August 2024 and -0.28\u00b0C for September 2024. Therefore, for October, the SST would need to drop to -0.97\u00b0C to achieve the necessary three-month total. If the SST drops to -0.97\u00b0C in Nino3.4 region for October 2024, the First La Nina thresh hold can be achieved for October 2024. Consequently, the earliest a full-fledged La Ni\u00f1a could potentially develop would be in February 2025, provided the La Ni\u00f1a thresh holds are sustained for the following four consecutive overlapping three-month periods.<\/p>\n

If the SST does not reach -0.97\u00b0C in the Ni\u00f1o3.4 region for October 2024, ENSO neutral conditions would persist. In that case, the earliest a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a could establish would be March 2025, contingent on meeting the First La Ni\u00f1a threshold in November 2024 and maintaining it for four subsequent overlapping three-month periods.<\/p>\n

Based on this analysis and NOAA criteria, it is expected that the Indian Winter of 2024-25 (ending February 2025) will conclude without a fully developed La Ni\u00f1a, even if the threshold is eventually met, due to the insufficient time for the required five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, while the potential impacts of La Ni\u00f1a on Indian winters are is not fully known as yet and is a subject of research, specifically with respect to how it affects different parts of the Country.<\/p>\n

How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n

CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n

Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Enso Neutral
\nConditions Prevail\u00a0 At The End Of September 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n

Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2023   2   26.30   26.76   -0.46\r\n2023   3   27.19   27.29   -0.11\r\n2023   4   27.96   27.83    0.14\r\n2023   5   28.40   27.94    0.46\r\n2023   6   28.57   27.73    0.84\r\n2023   7   28.31   27.29    1.02\r\n2023   8   28.21   26.86    1.35\r\n2023   9   28.32   26.72    1.60\r\n2023  10   28.44   26.72    1.72\r\n2023  11   28.72   26.70    2.02\r\n2023  12   28.63   26.60    2.02\r\n2024   1   28.37   26.55    1.82\r\n2024   2   28.28   26.76    1.52\r\n2024   3   28.42   27.29    1.12\r\n2024   4   28.60   27.83    0.78\r\n2024   5   28.17   27.94    0.24\r\n2024   6   27.91   27.73    0.18\r\n2024   7   27.34   27.29    0.05\r\n2024   8   26.74   26.86   -0.11\r\n2024   9   26.44   26.72   -0.28\r\n\r\n<\/pre>\n
Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 10th October 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.*<\/p>\n
Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
30 Days average SOI was +0.36 at the end of September 2024 and was +1.33 on 20th October 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was +1.96 on 20th October 2024.<\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia October 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n