Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\nONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a>
\n
\n<\/strong>The current forecast and analysis clearly indicates that the First ENSO Neutral thresh hold has been established at the end of June 2024, thereby ending the 2023-24 El Nino. The ONI has dropped to +0.4\u00b0C for AMJ2024 season. ENSO Neutral conditions expected to continue for couple of 3 monthly seasons. To be classified as A Full fledged La Nina episode characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC and these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. Hence La Nina cannot be established during the Indian South West Monsoon season that ends at the end of September 2024.<\/p>\nIndian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n
Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any.<\/p>\n
04\u0aae\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab0\u0acb\u0a9c Enso \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0ab8<\/h4>\n\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0acb\u0aae\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ab0\u0ac0:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aaa\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f\u0aaa\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 AMJ2024 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 ONI +0.4\u00b0C \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0a98\u0a9f\u0ac0 \u0a97\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa5\u0aae ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 2023-24 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0acb \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0acb. ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aac\u0ac7\u0a95 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aaa\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acb\u0aa1 \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac3\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 ONI -0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0ac0 ONI \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe 5 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a93\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0aaa\u0abf\u0a82\u0a97 3-\u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 2024 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/strong>
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino Has Ended With Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established At The End Of June 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Enso-Neutral-June-2024-1024x772.jpg\")
<\/a><\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.28 26.76 1.52\r\n2024 3 28.42 27.29 1.12\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.78\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.24\r\n2024 6 27.89 27.73 0.16\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 2nd July 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: Final El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\nENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the West Central Pacific Ocean, near average in the east-central Pacific Ocean, and below-average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during NovemberJanuary).*<\/p>\n
Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was -4.89 at the end of June 2024 and was -1.86 on 4th July 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -1.15 on 4th July 2024.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/LOng-Paddock-SOI-July-4.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\nAs per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\nThe 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 30th June 2024 was -3.1 and was -0.5 on 2nd July 2024 and is in the neutral area.
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BOM-020724-soi30.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 25th June 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nNeutral ENSO and IOD conditions continue<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<\/div>ENSO Outlook<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\nThe El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.<\/p>\n
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a cooler than average sub-surface in the central and eastern Pacific. During June, the rate of cooling has decreased. Cloud and surface pressure patterns are currently ENSO-neutral.<\/p>\n
Climate models<\/a>\u00a0suggest that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool for at least the next\u00a02 months. Four of 7 models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, and the remaining 3 suggest the possibility of SSTs at La Ni\u00f1a levels (below \u22120.8 \u00b0C) from September.<\/p>\nThe Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is at La Ni\u00f1a Watch due to early signs that an event may form in the Pacific Ocean later in the year. A La Ni\u00f1a Watch does not guarantee La Ni\u00f1a development, only that there is about an equal chance of either ENSO neutral or a La Ni\u00f1a developing. Early signs of La Ni\u00f1a have limited relevance to mainland Australia and are better reflections of conditions in the tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Note: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-June-2024.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Analysis In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Akila Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Nino Ends & First Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established End Of June 2024 – Full Fledged La Nina As Per NOAA Criteria Not Expected During Indian South West Monsoon 2024 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
\n<\/strong>The current forecast and analysis clearly indicates that the First ENSO Neutral thresh hold has been established at the end of June 2024, thereby ending the 2023-24 El Nino. The ONI has dropped to +0.4\u00b0C for AMJ2024 season. ENSO Neutral conditions expected to continue for couple of 3 monthly seasons. To be classified as A Full fledged La Nina episode characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC and these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. Hence La Nina cannot be established during the Indian South West Monsoon season that ends at the end of September 2024.<\/p>\n
Indian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n
Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any.<\/p>\n
04\u0aae\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab0\u0acb\u0a9c Enso \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0ab8<\/h4>\n\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0acb\u0aae\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ab0\u0ac0:<\/strong><\/h4>\n\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aaa\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f\u0aaa\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 AMJ2024 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 ONI +0.4\u00b0C \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0a98\u0a9f\u0ac0 \u0a97\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa5\u0aae ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 2023-24 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0acb \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0acb. ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aac\u0ac7\u0a95 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aaa\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acb\u0aa1 \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac3\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 ONI -0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0ac0 ONI \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe 5 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a93\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0aaa\u0abf\u0a82\u0a97 3-\u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 2024 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/strong>
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino Has Ended With Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established At The End Of June 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
<\/a><\/h4>\n <\/p>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.28 26.76 1.52\r\n2024 3 28.42 27.29 1.12\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.78\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.24\r\n2024 6 27.89 27.73 0.16\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 2nd July 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: Final El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\nENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the West Central Pacific Ocean, near average in the east-central Pacific Ocean, and below-average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during NovemberJanuary).*<\/p>\n
Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was -4.89 at the end of June 2024 and was -1.86 on 4th July 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -1.15 on 4th July 2024.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\nAs per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\nThe 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 30th June 2024 was -3.1 and was -0.5 on 2nd July 2024 and is in the neutral area.
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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As per BOM \u2013 Australia 25th June 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nNeutral ENSO and IOD conditions continue<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<\/div>ENSO Outlook<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\nThe El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.<\/p>\n
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a cooler than average sub-surface in the central and eastern Pacific. During June, the rate of cooling has decreased. Cloud and surface pressure patterns are currently ENSO-neutral.<\/p>\n
Climate models<\/a>\u00a0suggest that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool for at least the next\u00a02 months. Four of 7 models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, and the remaining 3 suggest the possibility of SSTs at La Ni\u00f1a levels (below \u22120.8 \u00b0C) from September.<\/p>\nThe Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is at La Ni\u00f1a Watch due to early signs that an event may form in the Pacific Ocean later in the year. A La Ni\u00f1a Watch does not guarantee La Ni\u00f1a development, only that there is about an equal chance of either ENSO neutral or a La Ni\u00f1a developing. Early signs of La Ni\u00f1a have limited relevance to mainland Australia and are better reflections of conditions in the tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Note: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Ashok Patel’s Analysis In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Akila Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Nino Ends & First Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established End Of June 2024 – Full Fledged La Nina As Per NOAA Criteria Not Expected During Indian South West Monsoon 2024 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aaa\u0ab7\u0acd\u0a9f\u0aaa\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 AMJ2024 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 ONI +0.4\u00b0C \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0a98\u0a9f\u0ac0 \u0a97\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa5\u0aae ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 2023-24 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0acb \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0acb. ENSO \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aac\u0ac7\u0a95 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a9a\u0abe\u0ab2\u0ac1 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aaa\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a8f\u0aaa\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acb\u0aa1 \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac3\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 ONI -0.5\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0ac0 ONI \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a9b\u0abe 5 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a93\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0aaa\u0abf\u0a82\u0a97 3-\u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 2024 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab6\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/strong> The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -4.89 at the end of June 2024 and was -1.86 on 4th July 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -1.15 on 4th July 2024.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 30th June 2024 was -3.1 and was -0.5 on 2nd July 2024 and is in the neutral area. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.<\/p>\n Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a cooler than average sub-surface in the central and eastern Pacific. During June, the rate of cooling has decreased. Cloud and surface pressure patterns are currently ENSO-neutral.<\/p>\n Climate models<\/a>\u00a0suggest that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool for at least the next\u00a02 months. Four of 7 models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, and the remaining 3 suggest the possibility of SSTs at La Ni\u00f1a levels (below \u22120.8 \u00b0C) from September.<\/p>\n The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is at La Ni\u00f1a Watch due to early signs that an event may form in the Pacific Ocean later in the year. A La Ni\u00f1a Watch does not guarantee La Ni\u00f1a development, only that there is about an equal chance of either ENSO neutral or a La Ni\u00f1a developing. Early signs of La Ni\u00f1a have limited relevance to mainland Australia and are better reflections of conditions in the tropical Pacific.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Note: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n Ashok Patel’s Analysis In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th July 2024<\/a><\/p>\n Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\n Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\n Read Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\n How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" El Nino Ends & First Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established End Of June 2024 – Full Fledged La Nina As Per NOAA Criteria Not Expected During Indian South West Monsoon 2024 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows El Nino Has Ended With Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established At The End Of June 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/h4>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.28 26.76 1.52\r\n2024 3 28.42 27.29 1.12\r\n2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.78\r\n2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.24\r\n2024 6 27.89 27.73 0.16\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 2nd July 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the West Central Pacific Ocean, near average in the east-central Pacific Ocean, and below-average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nLa Ni\u00f1a is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during NovemberJanuary).*<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSouthern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAs per BOM \u2013 Australia 25th June 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Neutral ENSO and IOD conditions continue<\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
![Ashok Patel’s Analysis In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Akila Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Nino Ends & First Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established End Of June 2024 – Full Fledged La Nina As Per NOAA Criteria Not Expected During Indian South West Monsoon 2024 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/SanjSamachar_050724.jpg\"){kind=link}
![Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nForecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 1st July 2024<\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"El Nino Ends & First Enso Neutral Thresh Hold Established End Of June 2024 – Full Fledged La Nina As Per NOAA Criteria Not Expected During Indian South West Monsoon 2024 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 2024\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aae\u0abe\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Akila_010724.jpg\"){kind=link}
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