Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe classification of El Ni\u00f1o events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn’t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0\u00b0C or above to categorize an El Ni\u00f1o event as “Super Strong.”<\/p>\n
In general, a strong El Ni\u00f1o event is often characterized by ONI values reaching or exceeding +2.0\u00b0C. A Super Strong El Ni\u00f1o would typically involve sustained ONI value of +2.0\u00b0C or more. Hence for ease of understanding and comparing the strength of various Strong El Nino events, I propose to define an El Nino as a Super Strong event if\u00a0 three consecutive ONI index is +2.0\u00b0C or more.<\/p>\n
ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a>
\n
\n<\/strong>The current forecast and analysis clearly indicates that the 2023-24 El Nino will not become a Super Strong El Nino, since the ONI has already dropped below +2.0\u00b0C to latest value of +1.8\u00b0C for DJF2024. ONI is expected to decrease henceforth.<\/p>\nHow ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Strong
\nEl Nino Conditions Are Prevailing At The End Of February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/ONI_DJF_2024-1024x772.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.33 26.76 1.56\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 8th February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/h4>\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<\/h4>\n
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o.
\n<\/span><\/p>\nA transition from El Ni\u00f1o to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Ni\u00f1a developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).*<\/span><\/h4>\nNote: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was -15.55 at the end of February 2024 and was -12.19 on 4th March 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.98 on 4th March 2024. During February 2024 the SOI had been negative and continues to be so on 4th March 2024.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/LongPaddok-040324.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\nAs per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\nThe 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 29th February 2024 was -13.5 and was -11.5 on 2nd March 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again..
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/soi30-040324.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 5th March 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nNeutral ENSO likely during Autumn<\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.<\/p>\n
Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Ni\u00f1o. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. \u00a0The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Ni\u00f1o state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Ni\u00f1o strength.<\/p>\n
International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.
\nNote: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/20240305.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/h4>\nFor Gujarati Abstract – \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a97\u0aa4 <\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2023-24 El Nino ONI Below 2\u00b0C End Of February 2024 – El Nino Expected To Continue Weakening Further Next Couple Of Months Enso Status on 5th March 2024 Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary : The classification of El Ni\u00f1o Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
\n<\/strong>The current forecast and analysis clearly indicates that the 2023-24 El Nino will not become a Super Strong El Nino, since the ONI has already dropped below +2.0\u00b0C to latest value of +1.8\u00b0C for DJF2024. ONI is expected to decrease henceforth.<\/p>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Strong
\nEl Nino Conditions Are Prevailing At The End Of February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.33 26.76 1.56\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 8th February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/h4>\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<\/h4>\n
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o.
\n<\/span><\/p>\nA transition from El Ni\u00f1o to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Ni\u00f1a developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).*<\/span><\/h4>\nNote: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was -15.55 at the end of February 2024 and was -12.19 on 4th March 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.98 on 4th March 2024. During February 2024 the SOI had been negative and continues to be so on 4th March 2024.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\nAs per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\nThe 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 29th February 2024 was -13.5 and was -11.5 on 2nd March 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again..
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 5th March 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nNeutral ENSO likely during Autumn<\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.<\/p>\n
Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Ni\u00f1o. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. \u00a0The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Ni\u00f1o state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Ni\u00f1o strength.<\/p>\n
International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.
\nNote: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/h4>\nFor Gujarati Abstract – \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a97\u0aa4 <\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2023-24 El Nino ONI Below 2\u00b0C End Of February 2024 – El Nino Expected To Continue Weakening Further Next Couple Of Months Enso Status on 5th March 2024 Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary : The classification of El Ni\u00f1o Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Strong
\nEl Nino Conditions Are Prevailing At The End Of February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.33 26.76 1.56\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 8th February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/h4>\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<\/h4>\n
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o.
\n<\/span><\/p>\nA transition from El Ni\u00f1o to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Ni\u00f1a developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).*<\/span><\/h4>\nNote: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was -15.55 at the end of February 2024 and was -12.19 on 4th March 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.98 on 4th March 2024. During February 2024 the SOI had been negative and continues to be so on 4th March 2024.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\nAs per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\nThe 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 29th February 2024 was -13.5 and was -11.5 on 2nd March 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again..
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 5th March 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nNeutral ENSO likely during Autumn<\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.<\/p>\n
Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Ni\u00f1o. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. \u00a0The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Ni\u00f1o state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Ni\u00f1o strength.<\/p>\n
International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.
\nNote: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/h4>\nFor Gujarati Abstract – \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a97\u0aa4 <\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2023-24 El Nino ONI Below 2\u00b0C End Of February 2024 – El Nino Expected To Continue Weakening Further Next Couple Of Months Enso Status on 5th March 2024 Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary : The classification of El Ni\u00f1o Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o. Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -15.55 at the end of February 2024 and was -12.19 on 4th March 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.98 on 4th March 2024. During February 2024 the SOI had been negative and continues to be so on 4th March 2024.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 29th February 2024 was -13.5 and was -11.5 on 2nd March 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again.. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.<\/p>\n Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Ni\u00f1o. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. \u00a0The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Ni\u00f1o state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Ni\u00f1o strength.<\/p>\n International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution. For Gujarati Abstract – \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0ac7\u0aaa \u0ab5\u0abf\u0a97\u0aa4 <\/a><\/p>\n Read Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\n How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 2023-24 El Nino ONI Below 2\u00b0C End Of February 2024 – El Nino Expected To Continue Weakening Further Next Couple Of Months Enso Status on 5th March 2024 Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary : The classification of El Ni\u00f1o Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30820\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82\r\n2024 2 28.33 26.76 1.56\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 8th February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory \/ La Ni\u00f1a Watch<\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<\/h4>\n
\n<\/span><\/p>\nA transition from El Ni\u00f1o to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Ni\u00f1a developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).*<\/span><\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSouthern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAs per BOM \u2013 Australia 5th March 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Neutral ENSO likely during Autumn<\/h4>\n
\nNote: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/h4>\n