Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe classification of El Ni\u00f1o events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn’t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0\u00b0C or above to categorize an El Ni\u00f1o event as “Super Strong.”<\/p>\n
In general, a “Strong” El Ni\u00f1o event is often characterized by ONI values reaching or exceeding +2.0\u00b0C. A “Super Strong” El Ni\u00f1o would typically involve sustained ONI value of +2.0\u00b0C or more. Hence for ease of understanding and comparing the strength of various “Strong” El Nino events, I propose to define an El Nino as a “Super Strong” event if\u00a0 three consecutive ONI index is +2.0\u00b0C or more.<\/p>\n
A brief history of the past El Nino events with the number of consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above:<\/p>\n
In the year 1965 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0\u00b0C, OND +2.0\u00b0C<\/p>\n
In the year 1972-73 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were OND +2.1\u00b0C NDJ +2.1\u00b0C DJF<\/p>\n
In the year 1982-83 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0\u00b0C, OND +2.2\u00b0C NDJ +2.2\u00b0C DJF +2.2\u00b0C<\/p>\n
In the year 1997-98 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.1\u00b0C SON +2.3\u00b0C, OND +2.4\u00b0C NDJ +2.4\u00b0C DJF +2.2\u00b0C<\/p>\n
In the year 2015-16 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.2\u00b0C SON +2.4\u00b0C, OND +2.6\u00b0C NDJ +2.6\u00b0C DJF +2.5\u00b0C JFM +2.1\u00b0C<\/p>\n
ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here<\/a>
\n
\n<\/strong>There have been three “Super Strong” El Nino events from 1950 onwards till date. The first such event was 1982-83 “Super Strong” El Nino with 4 consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above with highest ONI of +2.2\u00b0C twice. The second “Super Strong” El Nino event was 1997-98 with five consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above with highest ONI of +2.4\u00b0C twice. The third “Super Strong” El Nino event was 2015-16 with six consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above with highest ONI of +2.6\u00b0C twice. The current forecast and analysis does not support the 2023-24 El Nino to become a “Super Strong” El Nino.<\/p>\n\u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa3, \u0aa4\u0abe\u0a95\u0abe\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa4, \u0a95\u0a82\u0a88\u0a95 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a86\u0aac\u0acb\u0ab9\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a8f\u0a9c\u0aa8\u0acd\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a93\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac7 \u201c\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97\u201d \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac3\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a95\u0acb\u0a88 \u0a95\u0aa1\u0a95 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aaf\u0aae \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n
\u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7, “\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI \u0aae\u0ac2\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aaf\u0acb +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7. “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0a86\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7 “\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0a95\u0abe\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0a9c\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0abe\u0aae\u0aa3\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0ab3\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0acb \u0ab9\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aa8\u0ac7 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aaf\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab5 \u0aae\u0ac2\u0a95\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac1\u0a82.<\/p>\n
\u0aad\u0ac2\u0aa4\u0a95\u0abe\u0ab3\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a87\u0aa4\u0abf\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe:<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1965\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 SON +2.0\u00b0C, OND +2.0\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb.<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1972-73\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 OND +2.1\u00b0C NDJ +2.1\u00b0C DJF \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1982-83\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 SON +2.0\u00b0C, OND +2.2\u00b0C NDJ +2.2\u00b0C DJF +2.2\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1997-98\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 ASO +2.1\u00b0C SON +2.3\u00b0C, OND +2.4\u00b0C NDJ +2.4\u00b0C DJF +2.2\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 2015-16\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 ASO +2.2\u00b0C SON +2.4\u00b0C, OND +2.6\u00b0C NDJ +2.6\u00b0C DJF +2.5\u00b0C JFM +2.1\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
1950 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0aa5\u0a88 \u0a9a\u0ac1\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a86\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa5\u0aae \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe 1982-83 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 4 ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe, \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0a96\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI +2.2\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0ac0 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f 1997-98 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb. \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe, \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0a96\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a93\u0aa8\u0ac0 +2.4\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0ac0 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f 2015-16\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0a9b ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe. \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0a96\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI +2.6\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 2023-24 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aa8\u0ac7 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aac\u0aa8\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa5\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0aaa\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n
\u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0:
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0aac\u0ab3\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0abe \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac7 94.4% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aae\u0ab2 \u0a97\u0aa3\u0abe\u0aaf. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\nIndian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n
Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +94.4% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2023. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any. Performance of Southwest Monsoon 2023 over the entire Country was much better than expected.<\/p>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\nThe ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n
CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\nLatest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows
\nEl Nino Conditions Are Prevailing At The End Of January 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/ONI_NDJ_2024-1024x772.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
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The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.42 26.55 1.87\r\n<\/pre>\nIndications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\nSummary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 4th February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory<\/strong><\/h4>\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<\/h4>\n
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/strong><\/p>\nThe tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o.<\/strong><\/p>\nEl Ni\u00f1o is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).*<\/strong><\/p>\nNote: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\nRecent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n30 Days average SOI was 3.96 at the end of January 2024 and was -3.97 on 8th February 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.64 on 8th February 2024. During January 2024 the SOI had become +3.96 and is -3.97 currently.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/LongPaddok-080224.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\nAs per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\nThe 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 31 January 2024 was 3.7 and was 0.7 on 4th February 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again..
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/soi30-080224.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 6th February 2024<\/strong>
\nEl Ni\u00f1o has peaked and is declining<\/strong><\/h4>\nENSO Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\nClimate model outlooks suggest El Ni\u00f1o has peaked and is declining,\u00a0indicating a return\u00a0to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn\u00a02024. The ENSO Outlook will remain at El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o status until this event decays, or signs of a possible La Ni\u00f1a appear.<\/p>\n
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<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/20240206.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nRead Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\nHow To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails At The End Of January 2024 – However This El Nino Not Expected To Be Stronger Than 1982-83 Or 1997-98 Or 2015-16 El Nino \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 2024 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aae\u0a9c\u0aac\u0ac2\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 – Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
\n<\/strong>There have been three “Super Strong” El Nino events from 1950 onwards till date. The first such event was 1982-83 “Super Strong” El Nino with 4 consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above with highest ONI of +2.2\u00b0C twice. The second “Super Strong” El Nino event was 1997-98 with five consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above with highest ONI of +2.4\u00b0C twice. The third “Super Strong” El Nino event was 2015-16 with six consecutive ONI +2.0\u00b0C or above with highest ONI of +2.6\u00b0C twice. The current forecast and analysis does not support the 2023-24 El Nino to become a “Super Strong” El Nino.<\/p>\n
\u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa3, \u0aa4\u0abe\u0a95\u0abe\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0ab8\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa4, \u0a95\u0a82\u0a88\u0a95 \u0a85\u0a82\u0ab6\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0a86\u0aac\u0acb\u0ab9\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a8f\u0a9c\u0aa8\u0acd\u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a93\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0aaa\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa8\u0ac7 \u201c\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97\u201d \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac3\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0abe \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a95\u0acb\u0a88 \u0a95\u0aa1\u0a95 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aaf\u0aae \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n
\u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7, “\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI \u0aae\u0ac2\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aaf\u0acb +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7. “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f. \u0a86\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7 “\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0a95\u0abe\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0a9c\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0abe\u0aae\u0aa3\u0ac0 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0ab3\u0aa4\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0acb \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 ONI \u0a88\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0acb \u0ab9\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aa8\u0ac7 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aaf\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab5 \u0aae\u0ac2\u0a95\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9b\u0ac1\u0a82.<\/p>\n
\u0aad\u0ac2\u0aa4\u0a95\u0abe\u0ab3\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aaa\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a87\u0aa4\u0abf\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a96\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe:<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1965\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 SON +2.0\u00b0C, OND +2.0\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb.<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1972-73\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 OND +2.1\u00b0C NDJ +2.1\u00b0C DJF \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1982-83\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 SON +2.0\u00b0C, OND +2.2\u00b0C NDJ +2.2\u00b0C DJF +2.2\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 1997-98\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 ASO +2.1\u00b0C SON +2.3\u00b0C, OND +2.4\u00b0C NDJ +2.4\u00b0C DJF +2.2\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 2015-16\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab8 ASO +2.2\u00b0C SON +2.4\u00b0C, OND +2.6\u00b0C NDJ +2.6\u00b0C DJF +2.5\u00b0C JFM +2.1\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb<\/p>\n
1950 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab8 \u0aa5\u0a88 \u0a9a\u0ac1\u0a95\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a86\u0ab5\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa5\u0aae \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe 1982-83 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 4 ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe, \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0a96\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI +2.2\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0ac0 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f 1997-98 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb. \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe, \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0a96\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0a93\u0aa8\u0ac0 +2.4\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0ac0 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0a88\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f 2015-16\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0aa4\u0aa4 \u0a9b ONI +2.0\u00b0C \u0a85\u0aa5\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe. \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aac\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0a96\u0aa4 \u0ab8\u0acc\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 ONI +2.6\u00b0C \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a97\u0abe\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 2023-24 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb\u0aa8\u0ac7 “\u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0a82\u0a97” \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aac\u0aa8\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0aae\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa5\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0aaa\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0.<\/p>\n
\u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8 \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0: Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +94.4% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2023. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any. Performance of Southwest Monsoon 2023 over the entire Country was much better than expected.<\/p>\n The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.<\/strong><\/p>\n The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o.<\/strong><\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).*<\/strong><\/p>\n Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was 3.96 at the end of January 2024 and was -3.97 on 8th February 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -4.64 on 8th February 2024. During January 2024 the SOI had become +3.96 and is -3.97 currently.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 31 January 2024 was 3.7 and was 0.7 on 4th February 2024 and is moving towards negative direction once again.. <\/p>\n ENSO Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n Climate model outlooks suggest El Ni\u00f1o has peaked and is declining,\u00a0indicating a return\u00a0to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn\u00a02024. The ENSO Outlook will remain at El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o status until this event decays, or signs of a possible La Ni\u00f1a appear.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read Comment Policy <\/a><\/p>\n How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails At The End Of January 2024 – However This El Nino Not Expected To Be Stronger Than 1982-83 Or 1997-98 Or 2015-16 El Nino \u0a9c\u0abe\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a86\u0ab0\u0ac0 2024 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0a82\u0aa4\u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aae\u0a9c\u0aac\u0ac2\u0aa4 \u0a85\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0ac0\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abf\u0aa4\u0abf \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7 – Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0aac\u0ab3\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0abe \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac7 94.4% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aae\u0ab2 \u0a97\u0aa3\u0abe\u0aaf. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\nIndian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows
\nEl Nino Conditions Are Prevailing At The End Of January 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72\r\n2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02\r\n2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02\r\n2024 1 28.42 26.55 1.87\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 4th February 2024<\/strong><\/h4>\n
ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory<\/strong><\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nSouthern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAs per BOM \u2013 Australia 6th February 2024<\/strong>
\nEl Ni\u00f1o has peaked and is declining<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
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