It had been mentioned here during the start of Southwest Monsoon in India that the\u00a0 earliest a Full Fledged El Nino can be established would be at the end of October 2023. With the fifth El Nino thresh hold of ASO 2023 at +1.5\u00baC a Full Fledged El Nino has been established a month after the completion of Indian Southwest Monsoon season which ended at the end of September 2023. The other development is that SOI that was -13.0 level is currently -7.0 level end of October.<\/span> Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +94.4% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2023. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any. Performance of Southwest Monsoon 2023 over the entire Country was much better than expected.<\/p>\n \u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 : \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac2\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa4 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0aa3\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a95\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0aa8\u0ab9\u0abf \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aae\u0a9c \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0abe \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac, \u0aaa\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0aae\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb ONI \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 ASO\u00a0 +1.5\u00baC \u0a86\u0ab5\u0aa4\u0abe \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac1 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb \u0a95\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aac\u0abe\u0aa6 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0a9b\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb. El Nino \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0ab3\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 SOI \u0a9b\u0ac7. SOI \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0a93\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac2\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa4 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 -13.0 \u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ab2 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0acb \u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 -7.0 \u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a9b\u0ac7.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0aac\u0ab3\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0abe \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac0 \u0a9c\u0ac7 94.4% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aae\u0ab2 \u0a97\u0aa3\u0abe\u0aaf. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/strong><\/p>\n Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n 30 Days average SOI was -6.63 at the end of October 2023 and was -6.62 on 3rd November 2023 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -10.16 on 3rd November 2023. During the last month the SOI has moved from -13.00 during the first week of October to -6.63 level currently.<\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 31 October 2023 was \u22126.8, which was -13.0 around the first week of October. <\/p>\n An El Ni\u00f1o and a positive IOD are underway.<\/p>\n Oceanic indicators exhibit a clear El Ni\u00f1o state. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to exceed El Ni\u00f1o thresholds, with warmer than average waters beneath the surface supporting the warmth at the surface. Models indicate some further warming of central to eastern Pacific SSTs is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Ni\u00f1o thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn 2024.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Read Comment Policy \u2013 \u0a95\u0aae\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acb<\/a><\/p>\n How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress \u2013 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aab\u0abe\u0a88\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9a\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a96\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Full Fledged El Nino Established End Of October 2023 – A Month After The Completion Of Southwest Monsoon In India \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aaa\u0a9b\u0ac0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0aaf\u0acb Enso Status on 4th November 2023 Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30243","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30243"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30243\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30243"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30243"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30243"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/strong><\/p>\nIndian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows
\nEl Nino Has Been Established End Of October 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/ONI_311023-1024x772.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPeriod Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84\r\n2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02\r\n2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35\r\n2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60\r\n2023 10 28.38 26.72 1.66\r\n<\/pre>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 30th October 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n<\/strong>El Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
\nThe tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Ni\u00f1o.
\nEl Ni\u00f1o is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring
\n(with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).* *<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/SOI-Long-Paddock-031123.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/soi30-BOM-031123.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
<\/h4>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 24 October 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o and positive Indian Ocean Dipole persist<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/20231024.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n