{"id":29485,"date":"2023-08-04T18:08:15","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T12:38:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wordpress\/?p=29485"},"modified":"2023-08-06T16:40:52","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T11:10:52","slug":"double-dip-la-nina-expected-to-continue-into-2023-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%ac%e0%aa%b2-%e0%aa%a1%e0%aa%bf%e0%aa%aa-%e0%aa%b2%e0%aa%be-%e0%aa%a8%e0%ab%80%e0%aa%a8%e0%aa%be-2023-%e0%aa%ae%e0%aa%be%e0%aa%82-2-2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=29485","title":{"rendered":"Second Seasonal El Nino Thresh Hold Reached &#8211; Full Fledged El Nino As Per NOAA Criteria Requires ONI >= +0.5\u00baC For A Continuous Period Of Three More Months"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Second Seasonal El Nino Thresh Hold Reached &#8211; Full Fledged El Nino As Per NOAA Criteria Requires ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC For A Continuous Period Of Three More Months<\/h4>\n<p>El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0a9a\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 &#8211; \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 El Nino \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aaf\u0aae\u0acb \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f<\/p>\n<p><div class=\"ose-twitter ose-uid-4858fa05a9efbc5dd4f422a397a34aad ose-embedpress-responsive\" style=\"width:600px; height:550px; max-height:550px; max-width:100%; display:inline-block;\" data-embed-type=\"Twitter\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"600\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"qme\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ugaap?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ugaap<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Indiametdept?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Indiametdept<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ElNino?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ElNino<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/N5yT0Aq8Gi\">pic.twitter.com\/N5yT0Aq8Gi<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ashok patel (@ugaap) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ugaap\/status\/1687830636588060673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 5, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div><\/p>\n<h4>Enso Status on 4th August 2023<\/h4>\n<p>Second El Nino thresh hold has been achieved for MJJ 2023 with ONI at +0.8\u00baC, the first El Nino thresh hold being for AMJ 2023 with ONI at +0.5\u00baC. Earlier Enso Neutral conditions had prevailed in the earlier three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI at -0.1\u00baC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.2\u00baC.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Ashok Patel&#8217;s Analysis &amp; Commentary :<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<p>Second El Nino thresh hold has been achieved for MJJ 2023 with ONI at +0.8\u00baC, the first El Nino thresh hold being for AMJ 2023 with ONI at +0.5\u00baC. Earlier Enso Neutral conditions had prevailed in the earlier three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI at -0.1\u00baC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.2\u00baC. NOAA criteria stipulates that a Full fledged El Nino requires five 3-monthly seasons with ONI =&gt; +0.5C, which can only be achieved earliest at the end of October 2023 since only two El Nino thresh holds have been achieved and three consecutive more thresh holds have to be achieved. Hence it can be concluded that a full fledged El Nino is not possible during the Indian Southwest Monsoon season which ends at the end of September 2023. The other development is that SOI is currently in the Neutral territory after having been in negative zone in May 2023. Pacific Ocean and atmosphere were not fully coupled, as occurs during El Ni\u00f1o events. However, SOI is now progressing towards the negative zone as required for an El Nino event.<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Indian Monsoon &amp; Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n<p>Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +106% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2022. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any. Performance of Southwest Monsoon 2023 over the entire Country is much better than expected. See the Graph for Rainfall performance over India till 3rd August 2023. Although the second El Nino thresh hold is at +0.8\u00baC the corresponding Rainfall for July 2023 has been a very much above normal. However, Kerala, Bihar &amp; Jharkhand have a huge deficit of rainfall till date while All the States from Gujarat Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu &amp; Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh &amp; Telangana have received huge surplus rainfall.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=29488#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29488\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29488\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/all-india-Rainfall.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"833\" height=\"858\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: 20px;\">\u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 :<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>MJJ 2023 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.8\u00baC \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 AMJ 2023 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf \u0a8f\u0a9f\u0ab2\u0ac7 \u0a95\u0ac7 El Nino \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0a9a\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0ac7 (\u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95) \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82. AMJ 2023 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe 3 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0abf\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 JFM ONI -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI -0.1\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 MAM 2023 ONI +0.2\u00baC \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9c\u0ac7 Enso Neutral \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe. \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aaf\u0aae\u0acb \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0abe 3 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0ab8\u0ab3\u0a82\u0a97 \u0a9c\u0ab3\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 2023 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 El Nino \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 2023 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0a9c\u0ab6\u0ac7. El Nino \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0ab3\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 SOI \u0a9b\u0ac7. SOI \u0aae\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0a82\u0aa4\u0ac1 \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 SOI \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 SOI \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 \u0aa4\u0ab0\u0aab \u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 SOI \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ab0\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab6\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa4 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe\u0a97\u0ab0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a89\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0aa1\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0aa1\u0abe\u0ab5\u0abe \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aaf\u0aa4\u0acd\u0aa8 \u0a95\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae \u0a95\u0ac7 El Nino \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab7\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0aa6\u0a95\u0acd\u0ab7\u0abf\u0aa3 \u0aaa\u0ab6\u0acd\u0a9a\u0abf\u0aae \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 2023 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0a97\u0aa4\u0abf \u0ab8\u0aae\u0a97\u0acd\u0ab0 \u0aa6\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ab2 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0acb \u0aa7\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0abe \u0a95\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a98\u0aa3\u0ac0 \u0ab8\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a89\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a86\u0aaa\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a97\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aab \u0a9c\u0acb\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a9c\u0ac7 3 \u0a93\u0a97\u0ab8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa6 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab9\u0a95\u0ac0\u0a95\u0aa4 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0a9a\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0abe \u0a9b\u0aa4\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac1\u0ab2\u0abe\u0a88 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa6\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0ab2 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aae\u0ab2 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa6 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aae \u0a9b\u0aa4\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0ab3, \u0aac\u0abf\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab0, \u0a9d\u0abe\u0ab0\u0a96\u0a82\u0aa1 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa6 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0acb\u0a9f\u0ac0 \u0a98\u0a9f \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0a97\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0ab0\u0abe\u0aa4, \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a9c\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aa8, \u0aaa\u0a82\u0a9c\u0abe\u0aac, \u0ab9\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa3\u0abe, \u0ab9\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0a9a\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aa6\u0ac7\u0ab6, \u0a9c\u0aae\u0acd\u0aae\u0ac1 \u0a95\u0abe\u0ab6\u0acd\u0aae\u0ac0\u0ab0, \u0ab2\u0aa1\u0abe\u0a96 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0a82\u0a97\u0abe\u0aa3\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aae\u0ab2 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0a98\u0aa3\u0acb \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa6 \u0aa8\u0acb\u0a82\u0aa7\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n<p>NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n<p>CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<b>Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(<b>CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows<br \/>\nSecond El Nino Thresh Hold Has Been Achieved End Of July 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=29496#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29496\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-29496\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ONI_MJJ_2023-1024x772.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"860\" height=\"648\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ONI_MJJ_2023-1024x772.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ONI_MJJ_2023-300x226.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ONI_MJJ_2023-768x579.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ONI_MJJ_2023.jpg 1258w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px\" \/><\/a><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n<pre>Period    Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR   MON  Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021   7   26.90   27.29   -0.39\r\n2021   8   26.32   26.86   -0.53\r\n2021   9   26.16   26.72   -0.55\r\n2021  10   25.78   26.72   -0.94\r\n2021  11   25.76   26.70   -0.94\r\n2021  12   25.54   26.60   -1.06\r\n2022   1   25.61   26.55   -0.95\r\n2022   2   25.88   26.76   -0.89\r\n2022   3   26.33   27.29   -0.97\r\n2022   4   26.72   27.83   -1.11\r\n2022   5   26.83   27.94   -1.11\r\n2022   6   26.98   27.73   -0.75\r\n2022   7   26.60   27.29   -0.70\r\n2022   8   25.88   26.86   -0.97\r\n2022   9   25.65   26.72   -1.07\r\n2022  10   25.73   26.72   -0.99\r\n2022  11   25.80   26.70   -0.90\r\n2022  12   25.75   26.60   -0.86\r\n2023   1   25.84   26.55   -0.71\r\n2023   2   26.30   26.76   -0.46\r\n2023   3   27.19   27.29   -0.11\r\n2023   4   27.96   27.83    0.14\r\n2023   5   28.40   27.94    0.46\r\n2023   6   28.57   27.73    0.84\r\n2023   7   28.30   27.29    1.00<\/pre>\n<h4>Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/h4>\n<h4><strong>Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 31st July 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory<br \/>\n<\/strong>El Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*<br \/>\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with weak El Ni\u00f1o conditions.<br \/>\nThere is a greater than 90% chance that El Ni\u00f1o will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.*<br \/>\n<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong>* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association<br \/>\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"block-50\">\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n<p>30 Days average SOI was -3.32 at the end of July 2023 and was -6.39 on 4th August 2023 as per The Long Paddock &#8211; Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -7.99 on 4th August 2023. The SOI is now moving from neutral zone towards negative zone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=29490#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29490\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29490\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/LongPaddock-SOI-040823.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/LongPaddock-SOI-040823.png 960w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/LongPaddock-SOI-040823-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/LongPaddock-SOI-040823-768x320.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<h4><strong>Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong>As per BOM, Australia<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 30 July 2023 was \u22124.3, with the value decreasing from +3.9 over the past fortnight. The 60-day SOI and the 90-day SOI were \u22122.7 and \u22127.9, respectively. Both the 30-day SOI is moving from neutral zone towards negative zone.<br \/>\nSustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=29491#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29491\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29491\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/soi30-040823.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/soi30-040823.png 576w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/soi30-040823-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>As per BOM \u2013 Australia 1st August 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div id=\"overviewContent\" class=\"block-80 print-block-100\">\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<div class=\"box-centre\">\n<figure role=\"group\">\n<div id=\"overviewContent\" class=\"block-80 print-block-100\">\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<div class=\"block-100\">\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<h2 id=\"headline\">El Ni\u00f1o Alert continues<\/h2>\n<div class=\"box-graphic block-25 float-right\">\n<div class=\"box-centre\">\n<figure class=\"\">The\u00a0<strong>El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook remains at El Ni\u00f1o Alert<\/strong>. In the past, when we have reached El Ni\u00f1o Alert, events have subsequently developed around 70% of the time. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are exceeding El Ni\u00f1o thresholds. The Bureau&#8217;s climate model suggests further warming of these SSTs is likely and SSTs will remain above El Ni\u00f1o thresholds until at least the end of the year. However, wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns continue to reflect an ENSO-neutral state.<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"overviewContent\">\n<div id=\"overviewCommentary\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?attachment_id=29494#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29494\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29494\" src=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-040823.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-040823.png 1000w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-040823-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/sstOutlooks.nino34.hr-040823-768x461.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"box-centre\">SST of Nino3.4 region and SOI will be monitored during the next few months and development of El Nino will be monitored during the ensuing few months.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div id=\"modelContent\">\n<div id=\"modelCommentary\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=19592\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Read Comment Policy \u2013 \u0a95\u0aae\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acb<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/?page_id=16444\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress \u2013 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aab\u0abe\u0a88\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9a\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a96\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Akila_050823.jpg\">Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 5th August 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sanjsamachar.net\/news\/details\/483205\/al-nino-emergence-does-not-worry-india-even-if-the-process-crosses-the-second-level\">Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th August 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Second Seasonal El Nino Thresh Hold Reached &#8211; Full Fledged El Nino As Per NOAA Criteria Requires ONI &gt;= +0.5\u00baC For A Continuous Period Of Three More Months El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aac\u0ac0\u0a9c\u0abe \u0a9a\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 &#8211; \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 El Nino <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/?p=29485\">Read More &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29485\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}