The first El Nino thresh hold has been reached for AMJ 2023 with ONI at +0.5\u00baC. Earlier Enso Neutral conditions had prevailed in the earlier three 3-monthly seasons JFM ONI at -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI at -0.1\u00baC and MAM 2023 ONI at +0.2\u00baC. NOAA criteria stipulates that a Full fledged El Nino requires five 3-monthly seasons with ONI => 0.5C, which can only be achieved earliest at the end of October 2023 since the AMJ is at First El Nino thresh hold with ONI at +0.5\u00baC . Hence it can be concluded that a full fledged El Nino is not possible during the Indian Southwest Monsoon season which ends at the end of September 2023. The other development is that SOI is currently in the Neutral territory after having been in negative zone last month. El Nino requires SOI to be in the negative zone. Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Ni\u00f1o events Based on earlier more than 100 years weather Data for Indian Summer Monsoon, The Average Rainfall in an El Nino years is 94% of LPA while in La Nina Years it has been 106 % of LPA for the whole country. Monsoon Rainfall over India had been +106% of LPA at the end of 30th September 2022. El Nino or La Nina may affect the Monsoon differently for different Regions of India and warrants research for concrete co-relations for each region of India if any.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u0a85\u0ab6\u0acb\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0ab2\u00a0\u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab6\u0acd\u0ab2\u0ac7\u0ab7\u0aa3 : AMJ 2023 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 ONI +0.5\u00baC \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf El Nino \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0a9a\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0ac7 (\u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95) \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0a86\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abe 3 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0abf\u0a9d\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 JFM ONI -0.4\u00baC, FMA ONI -0.1\u00baC \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 MAM 2023 ONI +0.2\u00baC \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe \u0a9c\u0ac7 Enso Neutral \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0abe. \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac0 \u0aa4\u0acd\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abf\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ac0\u0a9d\u0aa8 El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0abf\u0aa1\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0aaf NOAA \u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aaf\u0aae\u0acb \u0aae\u0ac1\u0a9c\u0aac \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a86\u0ab5\u0abe 4 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0a9c\u0ab3\u0ab5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab5\u0acb \u0a9c\u0acb\u0a88\u0a8f \u0aa4\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a93\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9f\u0acb\u0aac\u0ab0 2023 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 El Nino \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaa\u0abf\u0aa4 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0ab6\u0a95\u0ac7. \u0aa4\u0acd\u0aaf\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab8\u0ac1\u0aa7\u0ac0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a87\u0aa8\u0acd\u0aa1\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0aaa\u0acd\u0a9f\u0ac7\u0aae\u0acd\u0aac\u0ab0 2023 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0aa5\u0a87 \u0a9c\u0ab6\u0ac7. El Nino \u0ab8\u0abe\u0aa5\u0ac7 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0a95\u0ab3\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 SOI \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0a9c\u0ac2\u0aa8 \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 SOI \u0aa8\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a9f\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab2 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0a86\u0a96\u0ab0 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0aa4\u0ac1\u0a82. \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 SOI \u0aa8\u0ac7\u0a97\u0ac7\u0a9f\u0abf\u0ab5\u00a0\u0a9d\u0acb\u0aa8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a9c\u0ab0\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0ac0 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ab6\u0abe\u0a82\u0aa4 \u0aae\u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe\u0a97\u0ab0 \u0a85\u0aa8\u0ac7 \u0aa4\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a89\u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab5\u0ab0\u0aa3 \u0ab9\u0a9c\u0ac1 \u0ab8\u0a82\u0aaa\u0ac2\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa3 \u0ab0\u0ac0\u0aa4\u0ac7 \u0a9c\u0acb\u0aa1\u0abe\u0aaf\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7\u0aae \u0a95\u0ac7 El Nino \u0a98\u0a9f\u0aa8\u0abe\u0a93 \u0aa6\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abf\u0aaf\u0abe\u0aa8 \u0aa5\u0abe\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0a86\u0a97\u0ab3 \u0aa8\u0abe 100 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0ab5\u0aa7\u0ac1 \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0ab6\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab0\u0abe\u0ab6 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0aae\u0abe\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 94% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7, \u0a9c\u0aaf\u0abe\u0ab0\u0ac7 \u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0ac1 106% \u0ab0\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4\u0ac0\u0aaf \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa6\u0acd\u0aa7 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3\u0acb \u0aaa\u0ac8\u0a95\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0ac1\u0a82 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aab\u0a95\u0acd\u0aa4 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0aaa\u0ab0\u0abf\u0aac\u0ab3 \u0a9b\u0ac7. \u0aad\u0abe\u0ab0\u0aa4 \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0a85\u0ab2\u0a97 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0acd\u0aa4\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acb \u0aa8\u0abe \u0a9a\u0acb\u0aae\u0abe\u0ab8\u0abe \u0aaa\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0ab2 \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0acb\/\u0ab2\u0abe \u0aa8\u0abf\u0aa8\u0abe \u0aa8\u0ac0 \u0a85\u0ab8\u0ab0 \u0a8f\u0a95 \u0ab8\u0ab0\u0a96\u0ac0 \u0aa8\u0aa5\u0ac0 \u0aa5\u0aa4\u0ac0, \u0a9c\u0ac7 \u0ab9\u0abe\u0ab2 \u0ab0\u0abf\u0ab8\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a9a \u0aa8\u0acb \u0aa0\u0acb\u0ab8 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0ab8\u0aaf \u0a9b\u0ac7.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST \u2013 ERSST.v5).<\/p>\n NOAA Operational Definitions for El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5\u00baC. La Ni\u00f1a: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5\u00baC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.<\/p>\n CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +\/- 0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n The\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/b>\u00a0(CPC<\/b>) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA<\/p>\n The last La Nina 2021-23 ONI Index were <\/strong>JAS 2021 -0.5\u00baC ASO 2021 -0.7\u00baC SON 2021 -0.8\u00baC, OND 2021 -1.0\u00baC, NDJ 2021 -1.0\u00baC, DJF 2022 -1.0\u00baC, JFM 2022 -0.9\u00baC, FMA 2022 -1.0\u00baC, MAM 2022 -1.1\u00baC, AMJ 2022 -1.0\u00baC, MJJ 2022 -0.9\u00baC, JJA -0.8\u00baC, JAS 2022 -0.9\u00baC, ASO 2022 -1.0\u00baC, SON 2022 -1.0\u00baC, OND 2022 -0.9\u00baC, NDJ 2023 -0.8\u00baC, DJF 2023 -0.7\u00baC and the last Enso Neutral ONI Index are JFM 2023 -0.4\u00baC, FMA 2023 -0.1\u00baC, MAM 2023 +0.2\u00baC and now the El Nino thresh hold ONI Index AMJ 2023 +05\u00baC.<\/strong><\/p>\n ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Advisory<\/strong> * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association 30 Days average SOI was -3.19 at the end of June 2023 and was +0.95 on 4th July 2023 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -5.65 on 4th July 2023. The SOI has come back to neutral zone.<\/p>\n As per BOM, Australia:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the period ending 2 July 2023 was +1.1, returning to the neutral range over the past fortnight. Value for the 90-day SOI was \u22125.5. Both the 30-day and 90-day SOI have shown a steady decrease in magnitude over the past month.<\/p>\n Sustained negative values of the SOI below \u22127 typically indicate El\u00a0Ni\u00f1o while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La\u00a0Ni\u00f1a. Values between +7 and \u22127 generally indicate neutral conditions.<\/p>\n BOM current evaluations: Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are exceeding El Ni\u00f1o thresholds. Models indicate a high likelihood of further warming, with SSTs exceeding El Ni\u00f1o thresholds until at least the beginning of the southern hemisphere summer. In terms of atmospheric indicators, recent values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have risen back to neutral levels, with the 30-day SOI at +1.1 for the 30 days ending 2 July. The 90-day SOI remains close to, but just shy of, El Ni\u00f1o levels. Sustained changes in wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns towards El Ni\u00f1o-like patterns have not yet been observed. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Ni\u00f1o events. El Ni\u00f1o typically suppresses winter\u2013spring rainfall in eastern Australia.<\/p>\n Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) currently exceed El Ni\u00f1o thresholds.\u00a0International climate models<\/a>\u00a0suggest further warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is likely. All surveyed models indicate SSTs will remain above El Ni\u00f1o thresholds at least into the beginning of the southern hemisphere summer. If the atmosphere responds to this warming, an El Ni\u00f1o event would be expected to develop.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Read Comment Policy \u2013 \u0a95\u0aae\u0ac7\u0aa8\u0acd\u0a9f \u0aae\u0abe\u0a9f\u0ac7 \u0aae\u0abe\u0ab0\u0acd\u0a97\u0aa6\u0ab0\u0acd\u0ab6\u0aa8 \u0ab5\u0abe\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acb<\/a><\/p>\n How To Upload Profile Picture For WordPress \u2013 \u0ab5\u0ab0\u0acd\u0aa1\u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab8 \u0aae\u0abe\u0a82 \u0aaa\u0acd\u0ab0\u0acb\u0aab\u0abe\u0a88\u0ab2 \u0aaa\u0abf\u0a95\u0acd\u0a9a\u0ab0 \u0a95\u0ac7\u0aae \u0ab0\u0abe\u0a96\u0ab5\u0ac1\u0a82<\/a><\/p>\n Forecast In Akila Daily Dated 5th July 2023<\/a><\/p>\n Forecast In Sanj Samachar Daily Dated 5th July 2023<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" First Seasonal El Nino Thresh Hold Reached – Now For A Full Fledged El Nino NOAA Criteria Requires ONI >= +0.5\u00baC For A Continuous Period Of Four More Months El Nino \u0aa5\u0acd\u0ab0\u0ac7\u0ab6 \u0ab9\u0acb\u0ab2\u0acd\u0aa1 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0ac7\u0ab2\u0abe \u0a9a\u0ab0\u0aa3\u0ac7 \u0aaa\u0ab9\u0acb\u0a82\u0a9a\u0acd\u0aaf\u0ac1\u0a82 – \u0ab9\u0ab5\u0ac7 \u0ab5\u0abf\u0aa7\u0abf\u0ab5\u0aa4 El Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-enso","category-ashok-patel-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gujaratweather.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/strong><\/p>\nIndian Monsoon & Enso relationship for India:<\/h4>\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
How ONI is determined:<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows
\nFirst El Nino Thresh Hold Achieved End Of June 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/ONI_AMJ2023-1024x772.jpg\")
<\/a><\/h4>\nThe Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from July 2021. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5<\/h4>\n
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust\r\nYR MON Temp.\u00baC Temp.\u00baC ANOM \u00baC\r\n\r\n\r\n2021 7 26.90 27.29 -0.39\r\n2021 8 26.32 26.86 -0.53\r\n2021 9 26.16 26.72 -0.55\r\n2021 10 25.78 26.72 -0.94\r\n2021 11 25.76 26.70 -0.94\r\n2021 12 25.54 26.60 -1.06\r\n2022 1 25.61 26.55 -0.95\r\n2022 2 25.88 26.76 -0.89\r\n2022 3 26.33 27.29 -0.97\r\n2022 4 26.72 27.83 -1.11\r\n2022 5 26.83 27.94 -1.11\r\n2022 6 26.98 27.73 -0.75\r\n2022 7 26.60 27.29 -0.70\r\n2022 8 25.88 26.86 -0.97\r\n2022 9 25.65 26.72 -1.07\r\n2022 10 25.73 26.72 -0.99\r\n2022 11 25.80 26.70 -0.90\r\n2022 12 25.75 26.60 -0.86\r\n2023 1 25.84 26.55 -0.71\r\n2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46\r\n2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11\r\n2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14\r\n2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46\r\n2023 6 28.54 27.73 0.81<\/pre>\n
Indications and analysis of various International Weather\/Climate agencies monitoring ENSO conditions is depicted hereunder:<\/h4>\n
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center \/ NCEP \u00a0Dated 3rd July 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are observed.*
\nEquatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the eastcentral and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with weak El Ni\u00f1o conditions.
\nEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.*<\/p>\n
\nwith the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/SOI-LongPaddock_040723.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
Southern Oscillation Index<\/strong><\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/BOM-soi30-020723.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
<\/h4>\n
As per BOM \u2013 Australia 4th July 2023<\/strong><\/h4>\n
El Ni\u00f1o Alert: Positive Indian Ocean Dipole possible<\/h2>\n
\n<\/span><\/span>
\nAny three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:<\/p>\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/vmi2318806.contaboserver.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/20230704.sstOutlooks_nino34.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n